Daily write-up - Dec 17th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It might be difficult to tip mid-week, because of the very tight prices – but that’s not so much of a problem on Saturdays.

Instead I tend to be faced with races that are absolute minefields !

I guess nobody said it would be easy !!

As normal, I’ve focused on the two main meetings of the day – at Ascot and Haydock.

However, there are also 8 official eye catchers running (including 4 in one race at Haydock - a record !) – and as one of those is running at Newcastle, I’ve also briefly covered that race.

I’ve ended up with 5 tips on the day – but non of them could be described as a certainty.
Despite that, let’s hope that at least one of them does the decent thing and comes home in front !

Here is the rationale for the tips – plus my thoughts on a few of the days other main races…

Ascot

12:40 There is too much guesswork to consider getting involved (particularly at a best price of 4/1) – but I have been quite impressed by Wylde Magic in his 2 runs in novice hurdles…

An opening mark of 116 looks perfectly reasonable – and a step up in trip to 3 miles, interesting.

As is the fact that he’s Paul Moloneys only ride of the day.

He would be my suggestion for the most likely winner of the race…

1:50 The first of the days tricky handicaps !

My short list consists of Orbasa, Ravens Tower, Pull the Chord, Dusky Lark, Andy Kelly and Marcilhac.

The 2m2m trip is unusual – as it falls between the more conventional distances of 2 miles and 2m4f.

Orbasa ran well over both of those trips in the spring – one of the runs also being over this course.

He was well fancied for a strong race at Aintree on his seasonal debut – but was very disappointing.

He’ll need to bounce back from that run – but Paul Nicholls said he hadn’t done sufficient work, so he will hopefully be a different proposition this time (assuming he’s done a bit more in the interim !).

Andy Kelly is the other one of major interest.

He was very impressive on his chasing debut in October, last year – but wasn’t seen again until this November.

He was still quite well fancied for a race at Kempton, but unshipped his jockey early.

His lack of chasing experience is a bit of a worry in such a big field – but I think he is well handicapped.

The third one worthy of a mention, is Marcilhac.

He is very risky, as he’s not run for nearly a year – and clearly isn’t easy to keep sound.

However he is potentially very well handicapped, based on his hurdles form – and has the looks of a chaser.

He was a 6/1 shot when running in this race off an 8lb higher mark 12 months ago – and is a 25/1 shot today.

He’s worth a tiny saver at that kind of price…

2:25 UnowhatImeanharry is very much the one to beat in this, based on his most recent run at Newbury – but that’s not so much the case, based on his form from last year.

According to official ratings he ran 16lb better last time than he had done previously – and that seems a little suspicious for an 8 year old (nearly 9).

There must be the possibility that he didn’t really beat very much last time – and if Ballyoptic ran below form, that could certainly be the case.

I guess we’ll find out this afternoon…

Certainly if he does win today, he will deserve his position at the head of the World Hurdle betting – because there can be few better benchmarks in training, than Lil Rockerfeller…

Race after race, he puts in a performance – and I expect it to be the same this afternoon.

He has Noel Fehily in the saddle (in Trevor Whelans absence), which is interesting. I wouldn’t have thought Fehily a particularly good match for a horse that needs driving – so it’ll be interesting to see how that works out !

Despite my affinity for the horse, I wont be backing him today. I’ll be happy with him running a solid race – and connections learning a bit more about him.

If I was going to take on Unowhatimeanharry, it would most likely be with the French challenger, Alex De Larredya.

Clearly it‘s not easy to get a proper handle on him – but his form with Ptit Zig and Un De Sceuax, suggests he is a top class animal.

I suspect that Ballyoptic will run much better today, with Richard Johnson in the saddle and more forcing tactics deployed: whilst Un Temp Pour Tout is another with half a chance, at a price.

For those of you who like a pre-race back to lay in running, West Approach is probably the one.

He tends to travel very nicely, and I could easily see the 60 on BF, at least halving during the race.

3:00 Another tough handicap, and the two I am most interested in, are Le Mercurey and Minella Daddy.

Le Mercurey is putting together a series of solid runs – and looks capable of winning of his current mark of 152.

Certainly, his 7 length defeat of Bristol de Mai at Ayr last season, suggests he is well handicapped.

Whist his 2 runs so far this season, should see him at a peak today.

Paul Nichols could hardly be in better form – so there isn’t a lot to dislike about him.

Minella Daddy was a very impressive winner over course and distance last time out.

He’s gone up 11lb for that win – and jumps up 2 classes today. However, after that race, the talk was of him running in graded races, so it’s interesting that he is being kept to handicap company.

He is young and progressive and worth keeping on side until he is beaten…

Fourth Act and Fletchers Flyer are the two others who interest me most – but I don’t think they have the potential of Le Mercurey and Minella Daddy.

Outside those, then Eduard and Irish Saint are both potentially well handicapped – but also have significant question marks over them (both are having their second runs back after long breaks – and stepping up in trip).

3:35 The market for this is dominated by relatively unexposed, potential improvers – and whist that is understandable, I’m not sure it’s the right way to play the race.

Don’t get me wrong, Golden Spear, Consul De Thaix or Meet the Legend, could easily prove good enough to win – but equally there is a chance that their lack of experience will catch them out in such a big, competitive, field.

Rather than side with one of them, I’ve opted to go with experience.

Sternrubin dead heated with Jollys Cracked It, in this race 12 months ago – and even off a 10lb higher mark today, I think he is still the one to beat.

Certainly he has proved a couple of times since that win, that his new handicap mark isn’t beyond him – and over a course and distance that suit him perfectly and on decent ground, he is likely to be a tough one to pass.

That was certainly the case when he ran at Ascot at the end of October, and he was again a tenacious winner.

Just in behind him that day, were both Modus and Fergall.
Modus is 3lb worse off today – as a result of a good run in the Greatwood. He beat Sternrubin that day – but I’m not sure he will confirm the form back at Ascot.

Fergall is 1lb better off with Sternrubin for a length beating, so there really should be nothing between the pair this afternoon.

It looks to me as if Fergall has been specifically saved for this race – with the application of first time cheek pieces an interesting move.

As a 9 year old, he doesn’t have as much scope for improvement as most of his rivals – but he has already shown himself capable of winning off todays mark.

The fact he likes to race prominently is a major plus in a race like this (as it avoids most of the traffic issues) and at 33/1, he looks over priced and worthy of each way support.

I guess the same is true of Sternrubin – but he is only 16/1, so doesn’t represent quite the same level of value (though he could certainly be worth a pre race back, with a view to laying in running)

Haydock

12:55 Splash of Ginge was an eye catcher a couple of runs back, on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.

I thought he was sure to build on that effort – but instead the wheels have come off and he’s been massively disappointing on his 2 subsequent runs.

He reverts to hurdles today – in what appears to be an attempt to boost his confidence.

In theory, he is well handicapped – off a mark 2lb lower than the one he won the Betfair hurdle from – but I couldn’t be interested in him..

In truth, I don’t have a particularly strong view on the race and it would be no surprise to see the recent dual winners, Ryedale Racer and Hey Bill, fight out the finish.

1:30 I’m not sure where to begin, with this particular contest !

There are no less than 4 official eye catchers running in it – plus a horse I tipped last time, in the shape of Whispering Harry…

Add on 3 or 4 others, of potential interest – and it clearly has to be a race best watched !

Regarding the eye catchers, then the one of most interest, is probably Ut Majeur Aulmes.

He finished quite strongly on his seasonal debut at Newbury last time – and if the run has brought him on, then he looks the one to beat.
I also like the fact that Ciaran Gethigns is on top for his only ride of the day.
That said, the horse isn’t completely straightforward – so he’s not one to have maximum faith in…

That is also true of another one of the eye catchers, Ubaltique...

He is probably capable of winning a race like this – provided the ground is heavy – and the pace strong.

I want to say that he could be of interest if he drifts to a big price - but he was very well backed before winning at Haydock last season, so maybe that wouldn’t be good advice !
Either way, it will probably pay to watch the market with him (and leave him alone if his price is stable !).

Foxtail Hill is the third official eye catcher to run.

He’s not an easy one to assess, as he was very impressive when winning at Worcester before disappointing a week later under a penalty at Stratford.

Despite running off a higher mark today, I wouldn’t completely discount him – though the soft ground could be an issue for him.

I do think the market will guide with him and I would only be interested if he was supported…

The final eye catcher in the race, is Indian Voyage.

He shouldn’t really be an eye catcher any more, as he’s been beaten 3 times since first becoming one.
However, he hasn’t had soft ground on any of those occasions, so he got a stay of execution !

He gets soft ground today – and in theory, that should give him a chance. However he has edged back up the handicap as a result of running well (but not winning) – and this is a competitive race.

Again, I couldn’t completely discount him – but I would be a little surprised if he were good enough.

Others worthy of a mention, are seasonal debutants, Big Jim and Gardefort; plus Morning Royalty. He was nearly an official eye catcher based on his last time out run over hurdles – but he’s not so well handicapped over fences.

The booking of Brian Hughes certainly catches the eye, though…

All in all, too tough a race to get involved with – but very interesting non-the-less !!

2:40 We were on Top Wood last time out at Cheltenham – and I feel compelled to stick with him today.
He was an official eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Ayr, at the end of October, when he ran over much too short a trip.

He still ran well – and I felt he was the one to beat, last time at Cheltenham.
That might have been the case, but he unseated a the fourth last, when still going well, so we never got to find out…

In truth, his jumping is his Achilles heal – so Cheltenham is never likely to be a course at which he excels. Haydock should suit him much better, as its fences are a lot more forgiving…

I think that trip and ground will be fine for him this afternoon – my biggest concern is the opposition !

This is a stronger race than he ran in last time out – and he definitely faces some tough opponents.

Chief amongst them are Corrin Wood and Yala Enki.

The former was a decent staying chaser for Donald McCain and has run really well in his two races over hurdle for Dan Skelton.

It depends on how much ability he retains – because at his peak, he could have won this racing doing handsprings.

It’s a different story with Yala Enki, who is having his first run over fences in this country.

However he has plenty of chasing experience in his native France, and is well enough handicapped based on his hurdling form in the UK, to go close in this.

Aerlite Supreme is probably the most interesting of the outsiders – though he has shown his best form over shorter.

Provided his jumping holds up, I would expect Top Wood to run a big race, in what are his ideal conditions.
If the old ability remains, then Corrin Wood is a potentially huge danger – but hopefully Top Wood will be able to get the better of him.

3:15 I was originally intending to get involved with his race – but I’ve changed my mind.

The horse I planned to side with, was Le Rocher – and I can make quite a good case for him. However, this is a very strong contest and on balance, I think it is one best watched…

Le Rocher was a high class juvenile hurdle, who was actually made favourite for the 2014 Triumph hurdle, on the back of 2 impressive victories.

However, he got injured and was off the track until last month, when he returned at Ascot with a really good run behind Eddiemaurice.

If that run has brought him on (not guaranteed), then on much more suitable ground – and with Lizzy Kelly back on board, claiming 5lb, he has to be of major interest.

It’s not often that you get to see a Grade 1 wining 6 year old, running off a mark of 137, in a handicap – and on that basis alone, I planned to tip him.

However this is a scarily strong handicap !
I’m not too keen on Cooking Fat and Lettheriverrundry – but victory for any of the others, would come as no great surprise…

Clyne was very impressive on his seasonal debut; whilst El Terremoto is on a steep upward trajectory. Super Sam has looked much improved this season; and Great Tempo could be anything.

Draytonian finished ahead of Le Rocher at Ascot – and still has scope for improvement; whilst Sharp Response would probably have been the one I feared most of all.

He appeared not to stay when beaten last time – and the two hoses who finished in front of him have come out since and seriously franked the form.

I wouldn’t put anyone off Le Rocher – and I’ll probably nap him in the forum competition. However, he is not absolutely guaranteed to run his race – and it is a very strong contest.

Newcastle

2:55 Final Assault is the final eye catcher, running today.
He caught the eye last time at Newbury – and all things being equal, I would really fancy his chances in this weaker race.

However, I’m not sure all things are equal !

Firstly Tom George and Adrian Heskin have brought Bun Doran a long way to run in the race.

He showed plenty of ability on his seasonal/chasing debut at Uttoxeter – and if he has made the expected improvement from that, he is definitely the one to beat this afternoon…

Also, Sue Smith and Danny Cook team up with No Planning.
Sue Smith has been in good form recently – and No Planning is a potentially well handicapped horse.

I suspect he will try and make all – and Bun Doran will have to be pretty good to beat him.

With those 2 in opposition, I can’t be interested in Final Assault – particularly with Lucinda Russell struggling for form.

Maybe he’ll get a better opportunity next time…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Asc 1:50 Orbasa 0.25pt win 9/1

BRT Asc 3:00 Le Mercurey 0.25pt win 12/1

BRT Asc 3:00 Minella Daddy 0.25pt win 10/1

BRT Asc 3:35 Fergal 0.125pt EW 33/1

BRT Hayd 2:40 Top Wood 0.25pt win 11/1

Eye Catchers

Asc 2:25 Lil Rockerfeller

Hayd 12:55 Splash of Ginge

Hayd 1:30 Ut Majeur Aulmes

Hayd 1:30 Foxtail Hill

Hayd 1:30 Indian Voyage

Hayd 1:30 Ubaltique

Hayd 2:40 Top Wood

Newc 2:55 Final Assault