Daily write-up - Dec 8th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Warwick, Taunton and Newcastle in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland.

4 meetings and no less than 28 races - but it’s a case of quantity over quality…

There are a couple of very interesting races at Warwick, and a couple of half reasonable ones, at both Taunton and Newcastle – but the Clonmel card has little to recommend it…

I’ve found one late tip on the day – very much a ‘value’ based selection, but hopefully it will run well.

There’s also an eye catching running (Winning Spark).
Generally, the eye catchers have not done as well this season as I would have hoped (or expected !) - accepting that they have often been running unsuitable races.

That said, of the last 9 to run, 7 have finished second – and another one third (behind one of the seconds !).

That is a truly amazing record – and illustrates yet again, how fine the lines are.

It would be nice if Winning Spark could produce a ‘winning spark’ this afternoon – and trigger a redressing of the current ‘luck’ imbalance..!

Here are my thoughts on the days best races…

Warwick

1:20 This is, by some margin, the best race of the day.

In fact, it’s a race which wouldn’t look out of place on Saturdays card at Cheltenham…

In the absence of Tagrita, there are 7 high class mares – and every one of them can be given a chance of some sort…

Looking through the field last night, I felt that The Organist was the one to be with.

She has decent form – and almost certainly more scope than any of her rivals.

It’s also interesting to see Barry Geraghty over from Ireland, to ride her.

She opened up at 7/1 yesterday evening – and that would have been fine.

However you can’t beat 9/2 this morning – and in such a tight race, there is little margin in that price.

Briary Belle has been put in the race favourite – and whilst I respect her chance, I couldn’t be interested in her, at 11/4.

She was impressive enough on her chasing debut – but was beaten last season over hurdles, by a few of todays rivals (including The Organist).
In fairness, she is an improving mare – who did seem well suited by fences – but most of her rivals are progressive sorts, as well…

Desert Queen isn’t particularly progressive - but she is talented.

Unfortunately, she is also a little temperamental, so would never be an easy one to tip (or back !).

I’m also not entirely convinced that 2m4f round Warwick is what she wants…

Rock of the Moor is very interesting – not least because Jessie Harrington has sent her over from Ireland to run in the race.

She finished second in the mares hurdles at last seasons Cheltenham festival – and based on that form she is the one to beat.

She’s not proven over fences – but has the size to make a chaser.

Of the market leaders, she is arguably the best value, at 5/1…

Stephanie Francis is an old TVB favourite – and provides a solid benchmark for the race.

However, I will be a little surprised if she can successfully carry a penalty in such a strong race.

Rons Dream is arguably an even bigger TVB favourite ! She makes her debut over fences today and I’m sure she will be a success in the discipline.
However, I’m not sure that 2m4f on decent ground is really what she wants…

Morello Royal is the final runner in the field - and she is also making her chasing debut.

She has form that ties her in with Rons Dream and Breiry Belle – and whilst not the most obvious winner, she has a chance.

In fact, whilst I could see a case for her being outsider of the field, I’m amazed to see her quoted at 33/1.

I was thinking of making her an EW selection – simply because her price is too big.

The defection of Tagrita has messed up that idea – but I still think she is worth the smallest of plays in the win only market, at 33/1.
Simply, she is not a 33/1 shot. And in a race such as this (where all of the runners are very inexperienced – and Warwick is a tricky course to jump round), almost anything is possible.

1:55 This is another good contest – though a very difficult one to call…

I tipped Paddys Field last time out at Sedgefield, in the race won by Drumlee Lad.

He ran OK that day – and with cheek pieces applied for the first time today, I would again expect him to run a reasonable race. I’m just not sure he is quite up to winning…

Of more interest in that regard, are So Fine and Brandon Hill – though unfortunately, the market has picked up on them both…

The former is potentially very well handicapped – though he does have a bit of an issue with fences; whilst the latter should be better for a recent pipe opener over hurdles, following nearly two years off the track.

His form over hurdles from 2 year ago, makes Brandon Hill the one to beat – provided he retains all of his ability and proves capable of jumping fences (which should be the case, as he is a former PTP winner).

I would have taken a risk on him at the double figure prices on offer last night – but he’s now a 5/1 shot and that makes limited appeal, considering the risks involved.

All this said, the one who interests me most in the race, is Amiral Collonges…

He was given an unbelievable ride last time, when Paul Moloney seemed intent from the off, not to win (or even get close !).

Needless to say, he succeed in that objective – though the official explanation that the horse made a mistake at the first fence, struck me as only part of the story !

The same excuse was offered for a defeat last season (at Huntingdon) – and my Spider senses tell me there is more to all of this, than connections are making public.

The horse destroyed a decent field at Ascot over hurdles, last season off a mark of 114 – and he gets to run today off a mark of 113.

I suspect he could hack up – if today is the day…

Now I’ve no idea whether today will be the day – and I wouldn’t expect the early betting market to tell us (though the late one might !).

You could maybe take a risk on him at 14/1 and accept that in all probability he’ll lose – or you could wait until near the off and see which direction his price is moving in.
I’ll leave you to make that call…

Taunton

1:35 He’s not a great price (5/2) – but Today Please looks the most likely winner of this, to me…

He finished second at Ludlow on his seasonal reappearance, behind a very progressive rival.
On the strength of that, he was made favourite for a better class race at Wetherby, just a week later – but it looked as if that run came too soon for him and he could only finish third.

He’s been given plenty of time to recover from those exertions – and is dropped back down in class today.

He had no issue with quick ground at Ludlow, so I would hope the same would be true at Taunton (which is another sharp track) this afternoon.
In short, he looks a very solid – if unspectacular – selection…

2:40 This is the most interesting race on the Taunton card – and I hope Winning Spark can take it…

He was an eye catcher last time out, at Wincanton.

That was his seasonal debut and he was unlucky to bump into a very well handicapped rival.

Winning Spark travelled nicely that day – but had no answer when the winner quickened away up the home straight.

With that run under his belt however, I would expect Winning Spark to be tough to beat today.

My main issue with him, is his effectiveness on quick ground.

All of his best hurdles form has been on heavy, so I would have preferred those conditions.

That said, as an ex flat horse, I suspect he will go on decent ground (it’s more that quite a few of his rivals wouldn’t go on heavy).

I’d certainly be happy to take on Clic Work (whom interestingly, Winning Spark has usurped at the head of the betting) – and would be more fearful of Newsworthy and Alexander the Grey.

It’s not easy to get a handle on either of the last two named – but they are both potential improvers.

Newsworthy has his first run for Neil Mulholland – and I like the combination of hood and cheek pieces that he is sporting: the horse is going to feel like he is running in a tunnel !

I suspect he’s a quirky sort – but he clearly has talent and could well turn out to be the one that Winning Spark has to beat.
Hopefully Winning Spark will be up to the job though – the Eye Catchers could do with a change in fortune…

Newcastle

12:40 Ash Park caught my eye (unofficially) last time out at Carlisle, in a decent novice handicap chase.

It was both his chasing debut – and his first run for 4 months – and he ran a really big race to finish second.

The handicapper didn’t miss it though - and he was raised 6lb for his effort. However, that’s irrelevant today, as this is a conditions race.

And based on the conditions of the race, he has actually got a very good chance - as he receives weight from a couple of horses who are officially only slightly superior to him.
However, these kind of races are rarely about pounds and lengths - they tend to be about scope for improvement.
Ash Park doesn’t appear to have quite the scope for improvement of his 2 main rivals -  which is why he is only third in the betting.

That said, both of them are likely to be over-backed, because they have higher profile connections.

In truth, I don’t think Ask Park is a bad bet at 6/1.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Aqua Dude ran a big race. He’s a difficult one to get a handle on – but I suspect he has the ability to go close in a race such as this.

2:50 It is interesting to see Paddy Brennan at Newcastle this afternoon, and whilst I suspect he is there primarily to ride Annie Alainn for Fergal O’Brien in the 2:20 – the fact he is on Captain Hoax in this, could also be significant.
The horse has been sent over from Ireland by Patrick Griffin – and whilst that’s not such a rarity nowadays, it still looks significant for such a relatively modest prize.

Captain Hoax has run in the UK a few times before – and has generally run well (all 3 of his career wins have been achieved in the UK).

He had a pipe opener over hurdles at Navan last month – and doesn’t look badly handicapped off a mark of 117.

It’s a low-grade race and so not easy to properly quantifying all of his rivals.

They don’t appear too bad a bunch – but this is more likely to be about which one wants to win most.
I suspect that could be Captain Hoax…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Warw 1:20 Morello Royal 0.125pt win 33/1

Eye Catchers

Taun 2:40 Winning Spark