Daily write-up - Dec 26th

There are no less than 10 NH meetings today, taking place across the length and breadth or England and Ireland – and I thought Saturdays were busy !

Even with a couple of days to look through the form, that’s too much – so other than a quick scan, I’ve disregarded the meetings at Sedgefield, Fontwell and Limerick.

I’ve also not bothered with either Huntingdon or Down Royal – apart from one race at each meeting, in which an eye catcher is running.

That left with me a far more manageable 5 meetings to trawl through !

My main focus has been on Kempton – as that is where the days biggest races are taking place – and where the bookmakers will be happiest to take a bet.

That said, I’ve spent a bit of time on two or three races at each of the other meetings – either driven by the shape of the race, or because an eye catcher is running in it.

There are actually a total of 6 eye catchers running this afternoon.

I’ve also issued 4 tips (in addition to our ante-post tip) – and there are the first few official mentions !

So all in all, a busy day…

Kempton

1:30 Nicky Henderson has trained 5 of the last 9 winners of this race - so it’s not too surprising that Gold Present has been installed favourite.

In fairness, the horse was a good winner on his chasing debut at Doncaster, last time – and if he can build on that, then he will take a bit of beating.

However, he’s not particularly well handicapped based on his hurdles form from last season and this looks a stronger race than the Doncaster one…

Poker School is disputing favouritism with Gold Present and he was a good winner of a decent race at Ascot, just 9 days ago.

The question with him, is his jumping – particularly round Kempton (which takes a bit of jumping) – but if it stands the test, he should also go close.

However, I’m going to take them both on with Max Ward.

He was a very useful novice hurdler with Charlie Brooks, a couple of seasons back – and it looked as if he had retained all of that ability, when he made a winning chasing debut for Tom George at Huntingdon in November.

He only beat 2 rivals that day – but did so in emphatic fashion.

The fact that his next race was the Grade 1 Henry VIII novice chase at Sandown, suggests that connections rate him highly.

Maybe not too surprisingly, he proved no match for Altior there – but that one is an outstanding novice, so a 20 length defeat, needs to be put in perspective.

Interestingly Max Ward was ridden with considerable restraint in that race, and I’m not at all surprised to see him stepped up by half a mile today.

My feeling is that he is a well handicapped horse –who is still improving.

In fairness, that might also be true for some of his rivals, as it is a race where a case of sorts could be made for most of the runners. However, Max Ward is the one that appeals most and I think there is sufficient in his price to warrant a small risk.

2:05 We’ve been with Minella Daddy on his 2 most recent runs: when he was a successful Top Pick at Ascot in the middle of November – and just 9 days ago, again at Ascot, when he was collared close home…

I fully expect him to run another big race this afternoon – and I did strongly consider tipping him.

Certainly, he has less question marks against him than most of his rivals – but I also think that he has less scope for improvement than a few of them.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him place – but I would be a little surprised to see him win…

In terms of what might beat him: then Anibale Fly and Frodon are the 2 most obvious ones.

Both are rated higher than Minella Daddy – and have more scope for improvement. However, nether is proven over todays 3 mile trip (whereas Minella Daddy is).

The trouble is, it is possible that both could improve for the step up in distance – and I suspect at last one of them will.

It’s certainly interesting that Tony Martin sends Anibale Fly over to contest the race – and he is probably the one to beat.

Of the others, then Present Man and Amore Alato are both possible dangers: whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see Virgilio run better than his dismissive odds suggest.

2:40 Whilst it’s relatively easy to anticipate how this race will be run – it’s not quite so easy to work out which horse will come home in front.
Following his last time out win in the International hurdle at Cheltenham, where The New One successfully employed front running tactics for the first time in his career, the expectation has to be that he will try to repeat the feat in this.

He is unlikely to face any competition for the lead – so there must be a fair chance he will be able to do just that.
The only issue is, where the stiff Cheltenham course and soft ground, suited him perfectly, last time: the sharper Kempton track and quicker ground will provide much more of a speed test, tdoay – and that won’t play to his strengths.

In fairness, he does have a decent record at Kempton – and if Sam Twiston Davies can get his fractions right, he is likely to be very tough to pass.

If he is outspeeded up the home straight, then it is likely to be by either Yanworth or My Tent or Yours.

Both horses are owned by J P McManus, is it is probably significant that Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Yanworth.
That said, it could simply be a case of him riding the one with the greater potential, with an eye to the future.

My Tent or Yours is unlikely to be winning a champion hurdle - whereas there is a chance that Yanworth might be capable of doing just that.
Personally, I don’t think he will be – and I would see My Tent or Yours as the main danger to The New One.

Whether he will be able to get past him, could well depend on the quality of the ride given to The New One…

3:15 Whilst it might be a fascinating race, a field of just 5, for arguably the second most important Chase of the season, has to be considered something of a disappointment.

Hopefully we will get to find out just how good Thistlecrack is – assuming his jumping stands up to the early test…

And that’s not a formality – though with just 5 runners, he should have the space to organise himself at his fences, and his inexperience may not cost him.

In truth, we won’t really know until the race gets underway and we are clearer on tactics.

If Thistlecrack is allowed an uncontested lead – then he is likely to prove difficult to pass.

I don’t expect that to happen – because Josses Hill has shown all his best form when front running – though that form has been shown over trips half a mile shorter than todays, so connections may choose to try and conserve his stamina, by settling him in.

In theory Silviniaco Conti is also a potential front runner – and it is possible that Noel Fehily will look to ride him aggressively. However, the horse really needs to bounce back to form if he is going to have any chance of getting involved.

So what of the chances of Tea for Two..?

I put him up ante-post last month, when I felt there was a possibility that the race might cut up.
That has happened – and the 33/1 then is now 20/1, at best.

However, far more attractive, the 8/1 to finish in the first 3 – is now a 7/4 shot on Betfair (which is the only place you can bet on him to finish in the first 3).

We therefore have a good bet – and I think there is a fair chance it will collect – though it is likely to depend to a large extent on how the race is run.

On official ratings, Tea for Two is the worst horse in the race – so all things being equal, he should finish last !

However, he is likely to run his race, whatever – and that isn’t the case for any of his rivals, bar Cue Card.

If Josses Hill leads – that will likely upset Thistlecrack.

If Thistlecrack leads – that could well upset Josses Hill.

Silviniaco Conti could is probably in decline and may not run anywhere near his current rating.

Whilst it is true that Tea for Two would prefer softer ground – there are still a few scenarios that would see him making it into the frame.

Getting him home in front requires a little more imagination – and 20/1 is probably a fair reflection of his win chances.

With tactics so key, it’s not a race I would really want to call now – but we are sitting on a bet which we has a fair chance of collecting.
Fingers crossed !

3:45 A competitive handicap hurdle completes the card at Kempton and the most interesting horses are at the top of the market…

Cases can be made for Lisheen Prince, Spiritofthegames, Instant Karma, Doesyourdogbite and Big Chief Benny – but I’m taking them all on with Moscato…

He’s only run 3 times over hurdles – all in relatively minor novice events.

He’s been placed on each occasion – but not managed to get his head in front.

Based purely on those 3 runs, he looks to have been quite harshly treated, with an opening mark of 125 – but we know more about Moscato, than his runs over hurdles reveal…

He is well established on the flat, where he has a rating of 95. That rating has been hard earnt - and he was running to that level in the summer.

Generally speaking, a NH horse will have a mark 45lb higher than a flat horse of similar ability.

Therefore if Moscato is as good over hurdles as he is on the flat, he should be capable of achieving a mark of 140.

Based on that logic, he is potentially 15lb well-in today…

Ofcourse it is never quite that simple. For a start the horse needs to be able to jump – and cope with the greater demands of NH racing.

However, watching Moscato, he looks pretty robust - and his jumping appears reasonably proficient.

The question then becomes, why hasn’t he already run to a level higher than 125, over hurdles ?

I think that is down to careful placing.

His 3 runs so far haven’t really provided him with the stamina test which I suspect he needs. 2 of the runs were over 2 miles – whilst the third was in a small field, around the sharp Ludlow track.

He gets more of a test today: 2m5f on softer ground – and with a bigger, stronger field.

It is also interesting that connections reapply blinkers. The horse has worn them before on the flat – and run well in them. He is also Leighton Aspells only mount on the card…

In short, the subtle signs are positive.

Against some potentially tough opposition, and with limited hurdling experience himself, he could never be a confident selection. However, I do think he has a fair chance – and 10/1 underestimates that chance…

A quick mention for eye catcher Rothman.

He caught the eye on his penultimate run over fences at Fontwell.

I don’t know why he is running over hurdles today – but the race looks too strong for him to feature.

Wetherby

1:50 This is a really interesting race – and I could give any one of half a dozen, a chance of winning.

Included in that half dozen, would be 2 eye catchers: Henri Parry Morgan and Our Kaempfer.

The former caught the eye last time out in the Hennessy – and must have a good chance today in a weaker race off a mark 3lb lower.

Trip and ground will be fine for him – and he holds Blaklion on form from Aintree, last season.

In truth, there isn’t a lot to dislike about him – apart from his jockey.

Now I’ve got nothing against David Noonan – but he doesn’t strike me as a ‘go to’ jockey – more one who was available at the meeting.
That’s always a danger on a day like today – but I think that if Peter Bowen were really keen on the chances of Henri Parry Morgan, he would have secured a different jockey.

I have the same issue with Our Kaempfer…
Again, I have nothing against Richie McClernan – but it seems to me that Charlie Longsdon has secured the best jockey available at the meeting, rather than making a real effort.

In truth, Our Kaempfer has a little more to prove as well. His form isn’t as strong as that of Henri Parry Morgan – and Longsdon is still struggling for form.

That said, Our Kaempfer does still have potential over fences – particularly over todays 3 mile trip…

I might have been prepared to take a chance on either one in a weaker race  - but this is not a weak race !

In addition to Blaklion (who has a definite chance – despite the form line with Henri Parry Morgan), there is also Yala Enki and Defintly Red – both of whom have very good chances.

I also wouldn’t be keen to dismiss Wakanda, who won a strong race at Ascot just 12 months ago – and runs off a mark 2lb lower today.

He’s still only 7 – and whilst he has been out of form recently, if Sue Smith has got him back today, he is arguably the one to beat.
Certainly, if he is backed, I would be inclined to take notice…

2:25 It’s not too surprising to see Solomn Grundy installed as favourite for this.

He finished runner up on his seasonal debut in a very hot novice event at Cheltenham – and followed that up, by winning at Newbury (and in the process, reversing form with the Cheltenham race winner).
He must have every chance again today – but he has to run off a 7lb higher mark and the Newbury contest didn’t appear to have a great deal of depth.

That certainly can’t be said for the race that Bon Enfant ran in last time…

That was at Wincanton and he was sent off favourite in the 12 runner event.

He was just starting to struggle hen he made a real mess of the third last hurdle and that was effectively his race over.

He was allowed to come home in his own time – but I would expect him to be better for that race, today.

Looking back at the race, it now appears particularly strong…

The impressive winner, Brelan D’As hasn’t run since: but both second and third, Winning Spark and Hint of Mint, have run and won.

Fourth placed On Demand hasn’t won – but she didn’t run a huge race in a strong contest at Cheltenham.
In short, it looks as if Bon Enfant was running in a very hot race.

Todays race doesn’t look as strong.

Aside from Solomn Grundy, Red Infantry and Cracking Find look the biggest dangers – but they both have question marks over them.

As I mentioned for the previous race, I think jockey bookings on a day like today are important - and I like the fact that Gavin Sheehan is on board Bon Enfant.
Again, he is no certainty – but he does have a chance and also represents a bit of value at 7/1+

Wincanton

2:15 This Pertemps qualifier looks like it might be a 2 horse race…

Mr Mix and Onefitzall are the 2, young progressive horses in the field – and they are being backed, pretty much, to the exception of everything else.

In truth, it is difficult to argue with the market – and whilst the prices of both look ridiculously short, they are by far the most likely race winners…

That said, there are two other runners in the field, who may be worthy of each way consideration…

Hit the Highway and Western Cape, both have some potential (though not as much as the market leaders) – and are at prices where they could be backed to place.

Certainly, Hit the Highway at 25/1 is the nearest I could find to a bit of ‘value’ in the race.

Outside of those mentioned, the only other angle I could see, is if a horse better know as a chaser, manages to exploit a more lenient mark over hurdles.

Buywise, Masters Hill and Theatrical Star, all fit that category – though in truth, I’m struggling to summon up a lot of enthusiasm for their chances…

3:25 This race has quite an open look to it – but I’m quite keen on the chances of Bears Rails…

He caught my eye (unofficially) last time out, when staying on well at Warwick, in the race won by Brandon Hill.

Despite it being his second run of the season, he looked as if he could still progress from it (he’s a very big horse).

I would expect him to be at his peak today – and the application of first time blinkers, is an interesting move.

Certainly he is potentially well handicapped – particularly considering he is still only 6 and has scope for a fair bit of improvement.

I think he sets quite a high standard for a race such as this…

In terms of his rivals, then I could give half chances to a number of them – but am fearful of non in particular.

Ardkilly Witness ran quite well last time – and has the back class to win this: whilst Expedite and Bear Goggles both have scope for improvement.

I could also see Dawson City running a big race under top weight.

That said, I would struggle to pick between them if Bears Rails wasn’t in the race.
It’s a good job he is then !

Market Rasen

1:10 I could be quite keen on Moscow Me in this – if Henry Oliver was in better form.

The horse was a good winner at Leicester, almost exactly 12 months ago – and on that form would have every chance today, off a mark just 2lb higher.

It’s not even as if he’s run too badly in the interim – all of his subsequent defeats can be explained relatively easily.

However, I am not overly happy with the form of the Henry Oliver stable – and it is that which stops me form getting involved with Moscow Me today.

I do followed Oliver quite closely – and whilst his horses haven’t been running really badly, they haven’t been quite firing either…

The other one of real interest in the race, is Unzing.

I tipped him last season when he was trained in Ireland – and I have kept a close eye on him in his two runs since he relocated to the UK.

He’s run really well on both occasions – and I could be interested in him today – if he was running over a little further.

He’s down to the minimum trip this afternoon – and I just don’t see him as a 2 miler.

I may be wrong – and he has been subject to early market support – but I just think he might struggle for pace over today’s distance.

1:45 There is little doubt in my mind that Masterplan could easily win a race such as this – if he was in peak form.

I tipped him in a tougher race last time at Sandown – but he just didn’t run his race.

That has to be a concern – as everything looked perfect for him that day - as it does again today.

Certainly, if connections have got him back, then I think he can win – but I’ve no idea whether that will have happened.
This is definitely a situation where monitoring the market close to the off, could provide some real guidance.

If the horse is well backed, then my guess would be that someone thinks that whatever has been preventing him from running his races, has been cured.

If that’s the case, then he is definitely one to be interested in…

2:20 This looks a very open race – and it’s difficult to dismiss many of the runners…

Fill the Power looked a ridiculously difficult ride last time – and on that run, is no ride for a conditional jockey !

That said, if first time cheek pieces liven him up, he is handicapped to hack up !!

Gonalston Cloud also sports first time cheekpieces – and he too isn’t badly handicapped.
He’s more straightforward - and could be at his peak, following 2 runs this season.

Amiral Collognes is the other one worthy of a mention – as he also is handicapped to win.
In truth, I just can’t figure him out…

I could probably work through the race, constructing a case for all of the runners – but I won’t bother.

Suffice to say, no result would particularly surprise me !

Leopardstown

2:20 Min or Identity Thief ? Who knows !! – but we will find out later this afternoon…

This is a cracking contest – and it says much for the quality of the big two, that Tully East can be backed at 28/1…

Assuming there are no spills (never guaranteed in a novice chase), then the battle for third place, could be as interesting as the battle for first.

I would favour the aforementioned Tully East to get the better of Ordinary World and Three Stars.
I’m not sure how you could profit from that though – so it’s probably just a race to watch and savour…

2:55 If he was any kind of a price, then I would be quite interested in Riviera Sun in this – particularly with the defection of Coolaghknock Glebe.
I spent a bit of time trying to figure out why Mark Walsh was riding Riviera Sun (and not Coolaghknock Glebe) – but now it is immaterial (I couldn’t decide if it was out of choice – or because of weight issues).

On his most recent run, Riviera Sun was pipped by Westerner Point, following a poor jump at the last.

A 4lb weight rise for that effort doesn’t seem unduly harsh – and he looks the one to beat.

That said, I could see Dysios getting closer to him today.

He won this race 12 months ago and looks to have been primed for a repeat performance today.
He is a big danger today – whilst you also have to respect the chances of novice Bal D’Arc off a mark of just 133.

I think Riviera Sun is the most likely winner – and I might have been prepared to take a chance at a price.

However 9/2 just seems to short in a big field with at least 2 serious dangers….

Huntingdon

1:20 Elkstone caught the eye on his seasonal debut – also at Huntington.

That race was over 3 miles – and he jumped beautifully, until falling at the third last.

He looked as if he was beginning to tire when he fell, so I wasn’t surprised to see him dropped in trip last time – though I was a little surprised to see him dropped fully a mile, and so running over the minimum.

I was also a bit surprised to see him running at Towcester, which is not course well suited to front runners.

Despite being sent off favourite, Elkstone disappointed – weakening quickly when headed.

I would have some reservations about him again today.
He’s back at Huntingdon, which should suit: but again racing over 2 miles. He will also face serious competition for the lead, from likely favourite, Caprice D’Anglais.

I guess it could work in his favour, if he is prepared to track the pace – but I’ve no idea whether he will be amenable to that.

On balance, there is too much guess work to get seriously involved – I’m happy to make him a mention though (in addition to being an eye catcher !)

Down Royal

12:20 Moonshine Lad was an eye catcher on his most recent run, in a decent beginners chase at Fairyhouse, at the start of this month.

He travelled strongly through that race – but couldn’t quite get to the leaders over the final few fences.

Todays race looks like it could be just as strong, with Art of Payroll, Burgas and Falcon Crest all looking like potentially serious rivals.

That said, I fully expect Moonshine Lad to run another big race.

I couldn’t consider tipping in a race like this – but now the formal mentions are back, that is less of a concern !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Advice Summary

Tips

AP Kemp 3:15 Tea for Two 0.25pt EW 33/1

BRT Kemp 1:30 Max Ward 0.25pt win 13/2

BRT Kemp 3:45 Moscato 0.25pt win 10/1

DT Weth 2:25 Bon Enfant 0.25pt win 8/1

DT Winc 3:25 Bears Rails 0.25pt win 6/1

Mentions

Kemp 2:05 Minella Daddy (O )

Weth 1:50 Wakander (S )

MR 1:10 Moscow Me (C )

MR 1:15 Masterplan (C )

Leop 2:55 Riviera Sun (P )

Hunt 1:20 Elkstone (S )

DR 12:20 Moonshine Lad (O )

Eye Catchers

Kemp 3:15 Tea for Two

Kemp 3:45 Rothman

Weth 1:50 Henri Parry Morgan

Weth 1:50 Our Kaempfer

Hunt 1:20 Elkstone

DR 12:20 Moonshine Lad