Daily write-up - Dec 6th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Uttoxeter and Fontwell.

As you’d expect for a Tuesday early in December, it’s low-key stuff…

I initially felt that there was little of interest at either meeting – but on closer inspection, I’ve changed my view on the Uttoxeter meeting.

It’s a nicely balanced card, with a little bit of everything.

I could probably have found a tip or two – but I’m loathed to tip in low-grade races because, as I’ve said previously, there is just too much guesswork involved.

I would be far less inclined to get involved at Fontwell.

It looks to me like a meeting where one or two will be aiming to a land touch – and pay for their Christmas expenses !

Following the market is likely to be the best policy !

Here are my thoughts on a handful of the days races…

Uttoxeter

1:00 I was very tempted to take a risk on Akula in this…

He finished second in the corresponding race 12 months ago – and off a 5lb higher mark.

He tends to front run – and was harried for the lead that day, so his performance can actually be marked up a little.

He also ran a fair enough race on his recent reappearance at Haydock.

That was in a better race than todays – and whilst he finished well beaten, he led the field to the home straight.
I would expect him to strip fitter for that run and to last longer this afternoon.

The trouble is, he’s 9 years old, so unlikely to be improving – and he faces a number of rivals who could still have their best days in front of them.

Chief amongst them is the race favourite, Peruvien Bleu, who ran very well to split 2 in-form rivals, at Leicester last week.

Provided he’s recovered from that race, he does look the one to beat.

That said, Que Sera and ApplesandPierres are potentially interesting, for big stables.

Both performed disappointingly on their most recent runs – but have form from last season, which makes them dangerous to dismiss.

Whispering Harry is well handicapped on his chase form. And whilst this is likely to be a confidence booster after his Newbury fall, he has the basic ability to go close.

In short, the problem with Akula, is that he could run very well – and still only finish fourth or fifth…

If I was going to tip him, it would be EW – as there is probably a little juice on a price of 3/1+ to be placed.
The other option is to back him pre-race – and lay off in running.
His prominent style of racing means that he is likely to trade lower during the race.

2:00 Tomkevi was an eye catcher last time (unofficially) – and I suspect it could be the same again this afternoon…

He strikes me as a ‘project’ in the making – the tricky thing will be figuring out when he is going to deliver.

My feeling is that it won’t be today. This is quite a tough race – and a mid field finish will likely see a few more pounds off his rating.

I could see connections looking to strike on Boxing day – at one of the northern tracks.

I’ll be keeping a very close eye on him this afternoon – but unless the market strongly suggests otherwise, I won’t be backing him.

In truth, I probably won’t be backing anything in the race.
Florrie Boy looks very much the one to beat, after his win in a class 2 race at Aintree on Saturday.

Todays contest is a class 4 – so he should find it a whole lot easier.

He’s got a 7lb penalty for Saturdays win – but that is completely off set (plus 3lb) by the claim of his conditional jockey.
Provided he’s recovered from his exertions, he will take a lot of beating.

That said, Kk Lexion could easily give him a race.

He ran really well at Cheltenham, last time – and appears to be on an upward curve.

The 2 of them set a very high standard for a relatively lowly race – which is why I think Tomkevi will be happy to take a back seat.

The other one worth a mention, is Al Destoor.
He’s not run over hurdles for a while – but has been in decent form on the flat.
He’s running to a mark of around 84 on the level – suggesting he could almost a stone in hand of his hurdles mark.
If that is the case, then Florrie Boy and Kk Lexion could both have a battle on their hands.

At 12/1, he is the theoretical value call, in the race…

2:30 If it weren’t such a low grade race, I would be tempted to make Baraza a Top Pick in this.

Considering it is a 15 runner novice handicap, he was put in a laughably short 5/4 last night.
However, on looking through the race, I just couldn’t see anything that should be capable of beating him

The trouble is, in these low grade races, you never know for sure (as Copperfacejack found out on Sunday, when a 28 race maiden produced about 2 stone of improvement to beat him – and was backed to do so !).

Baraza is slightly different to Copperfacejack, in so much as he is likely to make plenty of improvement himself – so I would be happier to go with him.

However, I just can’t be sure that one of his rivals isn’t going to produce a life time best and spoil the party.
He is certainly tempting, but I’m going to resist…

3:00 We have an eye catcher running in this, in the shape of Altesse de Guye.

In fact, I don’t really think of her as an eye catcher – I think of her more, as an old friend !

I tipped her twice last season – and have already tipped her once this – and whilst she hasn’t won on any of those occasions, she has run her heart out (which is all I would ever ask).

She’s being sent over fences today – and that worries me a little.
She’s not overly big – and I would hate her to take a fall.

That said, she is quite athletic, so hopefully that will compensate for her lack of size.

I’d love to see her win – but I’ll be a little surprised if she does…

There isn’t the form to make a proper case, but my instinct tells me that Behind the Wire is the one to beat.

He was a PTP winner in Ireland and has shown a bit of form in novice hurdles in the UK.

His connections have tended to do well, when putting similar sorts over fences – and I swept that he will improve for the switch today.

The other one of interest, is Buttercup.

The systems that both Neil and Francis are using in the forum, have come up with her as a selection – and I think she has a real chance.

Certainly based on her UK hurdling debut in January, it can be argued that she has a stone in hand of her current mark.

In fairness that’s just a single form line – and not backed up by her 4 subsequent runs – but it is interesting non-the-less.

If she bounces back to that level of form this afternoon – and takes to the fences – she has a better chance than her (now drifting) odds imply…

Fontwell

12:40 As I mentioned in the introduction, I think the whole Fontwell card needs to be treated with caution…

Cashanova has been well backed in this race – and he is certainly the sort of horse I could see producing a big run this afternoon.

A case can be made for him on form: he’s young enough to be progressive – and he’s been well backed. He’s the most likely winner…

That said, if I were to get involved with the race, it would most likely be with top weight, Benbecula.

He’s back over hurdles this afternoon, after giving chasing a go last time.

That didn’t work out too well – though he was running in quite a tough race.

He will likely find things a bit easier today – and he’s on a very reasonable mark.
He’s another who likes to front run, so my ploy will probably be to back him pre-race and lay off in running.
He might be able to steal the race from the front – but whatever, I could see him trading quite low, on a track that should suit his style.

2:10 This is the only race on the chard, that I could consider getting involved with – but it looks a bit of a minefield…

Leo Luna is dropping to a mark where he can win: but he prefers softer ground – and I suspect connections will continue to work on that mark, today.
One thing is for sure, if he does win, he’ll be backed to do so !

Pete the Feat is another dropping down the weights, but that’s because he is almost 13 years old.
He might be able to win another race – but I’m not sure I want to be following him to find out.

Royal Native is interesting – but has a near year long absence to overcome and is very inexperienced over fences.

I would certainly be prepared to take a risk on him at a price – but not at 3/1.

Adam de Breteau has a chance – but needs to show that he can win off his current mark.

It’s impossible to have Leg Iron, based on his run on Saturday – which just leaves St Dominic.

12 months ago, he looked a horse going places – but that’s not happened.

A couple of poor runs after Christmas, were followed by an early fall on his seasonal debut at Ascot, last month
As a consequence, he has a bit to prove today – but he’s now running off a mark just 3lb higher than for his last win (which was by 10 lengths), so from a handicapping perspective, he is of definite interest.

You couldn’t be adamant about him – but my feeling is that he represents a bit of value at 10/1.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Eye Catchers

Uttx 3:00 Altesse de Guye