Daily write-up - Dec 11th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Carlisle and Southwell in the UK – and Punchestown and Cork, in Ireland.

The days 2 big races both take place in Ireland: the Grade 1 John Durkan memorial at Punchestown; and the Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase at Cork.

However, you’ll need to be quite creative to turn either into a betting race…

The best 3 betting races, probably take place at Carlisle – though finding an angle into them isn’t easy.

The racing at Southwell is low class – and best avoided, from a betting perspective.

We have one eye catcher running, at Carlisle, whom I did briefly think about tipping – but then decided not to !

Here are my reasons why – plus my thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Carlisle

1:35 The first of 3 very nice handicaps run on the card – but it’s not easy to see beyond the first 3 in the betting…

West of the Edge was a very impressive winner last time out, on his debut for Dr Newland.

In truth, he was entitled to win that day – but the manner of the victory suggested he was an improved performer

That would make sense, as Dr Newland does have a habit of improving horses, that have been sent to him…

In fairness, he will need to have done just that, if the horse is to defy a 12lb rise in the ratings and a class rise. But I have a feeling he’ll be up to it…

Next in the market is Ballyben – and he has also looked an improved performer on recent starts.

A defeat of Harry the Viking over todays course and distance, was followed up last time, by a good run against Viva Steve, at Newcastle.

That looks very solid form and it’s difficult to see Ballyben outside the top 3, this afternoon.

If at any point you re able to secure 5/1 on him – he would seem to be an EW bet to nothing…

The third runner of major interest, is Saroque.
We were on him last time at Haydock – but he bumped into a much improved performer, in the shape of Three faces West.

Saroque couldn’t match him - and trying to, resulted in him eventually finishing fifth.

On the plus side, he has been dropped 2lb in the ratings for the run – and takes on a lower class of opposition today.

If he was likely to get an uncontested lead today, I could be interested in him at the available price - however, there could be a real battle for the lead and therefore I doubt the race will be run to suit him…

Cyclop has a chance of being placed – but I’ll be surprised if he is good enough to win.
The only other one that warrants a mention, is Carli King.

He took apart a field at Warwick, 18 months ago, when running off the same mark he runs off today.

He’s clearly had issues since then, as he’s only been seen twice.

The most recent occasion was his seasonal debut at Fontwell last month, when he led to around half way, before fading.

I’m sure he’ll be better for that run – and even with plenty of possible pace in the race, I suspect he will be the one who leads.

I couldn’t tip him to win – but a pre race back to lay in running on him, could be a profitable play…

2:10 There is an eye catcher running in this race, in the shape of Island Heights – and I did considered tipping him.

Back down to his last wining mark: running over his ideal trip – and on his ideal ground, there didn’t seem to be a lot to dislike.

However, I looked a bit further and a few concerns materialised….

Firstly, this is a hot race – and even if he’s back in the same form that saw him last win, it might not be good enough to get him home in front.
Secondly, he likes to front run – but with Knockara Beau in the field today, that may not be possible.

And thirdly, Lucinda Russell doesn’t seem to be in great form at the moment. She’s not going through a dreadful spell – but her horses certainly aren’t running out of their skins.

In the circumstances, I felt it prudent to resist tipping him.

In terms of what will win the race, then I actually think that Knockara Beau has got a huge chance.

He may be nearly 14 – but the fire still seems to burn bright – as he showed on new years day, when splitting Singlefarmpayment and Anteros, at Cheltenham.

That was also his seasonal debut, so he has shown he can run well fresh.

He likes the track; will like the ground – and is well handicapped.
The only negative is his age (and possibly his fitness).

I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off taking a risk on him at around 16/1.

Of the others, then Sevenballs of Fire and Jennys Day both have plenty of scope for improvement: whilst the money for Milborough could be significant provided it is maintained to the off (he is well handicapped over hurdles).

I could also give One for Harry and Shades of Midnight half chances - though neither appear well handicapped. That is also the case for Gevrey Chambertain – but I don’t fancy him much at all.

2:40 This is the third really interesting handicap on the card – though it’s not quite as easy to dissect as the other two…

That’s because it is a novice handicap chase, in which most of the runners have limited experience jumping a fence, and are therefore not easy to assess…

Minnellacelebration is a horse that I have taken to.

He was a good winner at Aintree 3 runs back – and ran a nice race behind Relentless Dreamer, last time at Taunton.

He probably sets the standard this afternoon, in terms of chase form – and I would expect him to run a fair race.
That said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him beaten…

Fionn Mac Cul is one who could beat him.

He makes both his seasonal debut and his chasing debut this afternoon – but looks the sort who could improve for being put over a fence.

The same is true of Tarapino – and if you wanted to take a risk, I would suggest you took it on him.

His form certainly looks quite smart, so the risk will mainly concern his fitness…

Lake View Lad seems to be the one the market likes.

He doesn’t particularly grab me – though he is very unexposed, so it’s difficult to assess him properly.

In truth, this should probably be a watching race, though I would consider a tiny play at 20/1 on Tarapino.

Punchestown

2:00 Runner up in the past 2 Cheltenham Gold cups, Djakadam is clearly the one to beat in this.
It difficult to imagine that he’s won’t be at least 95% fit – and that will probably be enough for him to win…

Probably, but not definitely, as he does face some very talented and progressive rivals…

Chief amongst them is Sub Lieutenant - and you can almost guarantee he will be ready to run the race of his life.

Outlander is the other one of major interest – and if there is a bet in the race, it is probably him at 7/1.

He doesn’t have much ground to make up on Sub Lieutenant – and I suspect the disparity in prices between the two, is mainly down to the fact that Bryan Cooper rides Sub Lieutenant.

From a pure ‘value’ perspective, Outlander has to be the call…

2:35 This is a fascinating novice chase – and the market is adamant it will be won by either American Tom or Woodland Opera.

That’s a shame, as I could have been quite keen on the chances of Blue Hell.

He was massively impressive on his seasonal debut 12 months ago, when beating Diamond King.

Based purely on that run, he was sent off quite a short price for the County hurdle att he Cheltenham festival - but he never featured.

I’m sure he can take relatively high rank amongst the 2 mile novice chasers this season – but he will need to be fit this afternoon, to feature in this race.

American Tom has limitless potential – and I’m not surprised to see him heavily backed.

More of a surprise is the money for Woodland Opera.
He was a fair horse over hurdles last season – but I didn’t expect to see him quite so popular for this.
That said, Jessie Harrington had a very well backed winner of a decent novice chase yesterday afternoon – so presumably she knows where she stands with this boy…

Marchess Marconi, Velocity Boy and Gangster are 3 others whom a very close eye should be kept on – it really is that kind of race…

Clearly it’s not one you could play in – but if there was a sudden change in the way the market viewed Blue Hell, I’m sure he has the ability to run a very big race.

Cork

2:15 The high-light of the day – and arguably of the season so far - is the reappearance of Douvan in this.
He may not be the highest rated horse in training – but he is by some margin, the most exciting.
He has the world at his feet – provided nothing untoward happens to him…

That is the trouble with this game – as was shown with Vautour, they are relatively fragile beasts.

We need to treasure them whilst they are in their prime…

Clearly Douvan should have absolutely no issue winning, this afternoon – provided he is even close to full fitness.

I’m a little surprised that Ruby Walsh has opted to go to Punchestown to ride Djakadam - presumably he gets paid more for that !
Not that I would have any issue with Paul Townend on board – you couldn’t find a better substitute.

If you want to bet in the race, then it has to be on what will follow him home…

In that market, might be tempted by a tiny play on Vukovar.

He certainly has the ability – but he has had a lot of issues as well.

He makes his debut for Gordon Elliot this afternoon (who must have the biggest racing stables in the world !) – and if he has found the key to him, he could outrun market expectations.

Certainly 16/1 in the ‘without Douvan’ market, looks a fair price.

3:20 I was quite interested in Knockraha Pylon in this.
He ran an eye-catching race last time, on his seasonal debut at Limerick.

He finished 10 lengths behind Orchard Road that day – but is 10lb better off in the weights today, so things should be a lot closer.

He is trained by my favourite Irish trainer –Adrian Maguire – and ridden by one of my favourite jockeys – Paul Townend – so I was never going to miss him !

Unfortunately the market didn’t miss him either and there is little margin in a quote of 5/1.

That’s particularly true in a race such as this, where there is always the possibility of a plot or two…

There has been early money for WeightforDave and Kiera Royal – and that may or may not be significant (depending on whether it is maintained to the off).

I would expect Knockraka Pylon to run his race regardless, and he must have a decent chance of at least placing.
However, you would want nearer to double figures to take a risk on him – and that’s not going to happen in the short term…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Eye Catchers

Carl 2:10 Island Heights