Daily write-up - Dec 2nd

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Sandown and Sedgefield in the UK – plus Limerick in Ireland.

I had a bit of a dilemma yesterday evening…

I knew that the meetings at both Sandown and Exeter were subject to early morning inspections – but their cards were far superior to those at Sedgefield and Limerick (where no inspections were planned).

I decided to focus my attention on the main 2 cards – and hope they got the go ahead.

Sandown did: but unfortunately, Exeter was lost.

That was a blow, as not only was there a very interesting eye catcher due to run (Barney Dwan) – I also had earmarked at least one tip for the meeting.

These things happen – it’s frustrating, but an occupational hazard…

So whilst there are 3 meetings today, I’m only able to offer an opinion on one of them – Sandown.

In fairness, it’s a decent enough meeting (for a Friday) – and not only have I managed to find a tip, there could have been at least one more !

Just another quick plug for the Naps competition, which started in the forum, yesterday.

We managed to get up to 27 (I think !) for day 1, which was a good effort – if still a few short of the number I expected.

Chris bagged a 4/1 winner and is setting the early pace – but there’s a long way to go, yet...

It’s still not too late for anyone else to join.

The beauty of the competition is that you don’t need to submit a Nap every day - just on a minimum of 20, across the month – so there is no problem if you miss a day or two (including the first few !).
If you are interested, just register on the forum, with Dave – and post your Nap !

Anyway, here is the rationale for the tip – and my thoughts on a few of the other Sandown races…

Sandown

12:40 The market looks to have the right 3 horses at its head, in the shape of More Bucks, Azure Fly and Vikekhal.

Of the 3, then Azure Fly looks the most solid, as he is the one guaranteed to get the 3 mile trip.

Vikekhal did win over 3 miles, last time – but that was a 3 runner affair (so the form is questionable). Whilst More Bucks looks as if he will stay the trip – but until he does so, it’s guess work.

The safest bet is probably Azure Fly each way – as it would be surprising if he wasn’t placed.

That said, it wouldn’t be surprising if one (or both) of the other 2 finished ahead of him…

Of the outsiders, then a case could be made for African Gold, on hurdles form from a few years ago – and he shaped with promise on his recent seasonal debut (also over hurdles).
He’s a risky one though…

Less risky is Twirling Magnet and I could see him running a fair race, without probably be quite good enough to win…

1:50 I’m pretty keen on Masterplan in this…

He was a decent novice hurdler last season and won a fair handicap hurdle at Ascot, last December, off exactly the same mark that he races off today.

His 3 subsequent runs last season weren’t as good – but that didn’t stop him being backed into favouritism on his seasonal (and chasing) debut at Carlisle.

He ran a slightly strange race there, in so much as he appeared to be going well – travelling and jumping – but then faded out of things…

It’s 50 days since that run, which is quite a long time and suggests that maybe something wasn’t quite right.

If that was the case – and whatever was ailing him has been tweaked - then I think he is the one to beat this afternoon.

Antarctica de Thaix is the race favourite – and whilst she could still be improving, I’m happy enough to take her on, at the prices.

Similarly, northern raider Volvalien, will find this much tougher than the race he won last time at Sedgefield.

Half cases can be made for the other 4 – but I think they will all have to go to get the better of Masterplan, assuming he does bounce back and show his best form…

2:25 Receiving weight from all of his main rivals, last seasons Cheltenham festival bumper winner Ballyandy, is the one to beat in this.
He’s run twice over hurdles so far this season – and been unlucky to bump into Moon Racer on both occasions.

It would appear that one is his superior over hurdles – but there might not be one as good as that, in today’s field…

If there is, it’s likely to be Messire Des Obeaux – but he’s going to have to be very good, if he’s going to give 7lb to Ballandy.

In fairness, he did look pretty good when he won last time at Bangor – but there is a world of difference between a handicap at Bangor and a grade 2 event at Sandown.

You can never be completely sure in novice events, because most of the horses are improvers (and you don’t know which ones are improving fastest) but all things being equal, Ballyandy should win this.

If he is beaten, then it will most likely be because the race becomes tactical…

That said, he’s a 5/4 shot, so with the question marks, not one you can really get involved with…

3:00 I really would like to tip Greywell Boy in this – but I don’t feel I can…

My issue is simply that he’s been off the course for nearly 2 years – so I would be guessing on his fitness.

I can see that he’s potentially very well handicapped – and I can also see that he has run well fresh in the past – but I’ve no idea what kind of shape he will be in today…

This service is driven via the form book – complemented by observations I make about horses when they run.

It’s not driven by me guessing on the fitness of animals…

And in a way, that’s a shame – because I suspect he is fit !
Harry Fry is one of the trainers that Neil has picked out to follow on his ‘90+ day’ thread in the forum – so I am aware that he has a good record with horses running after  an absence.

I can also recall UnowhatImeanharry and Shuil Royal both winning for him first time out, so there are precedents (and that is just off the top of my head).

There are 2 credible dangers to him: Gores Island and Red Devil Star – but if he is fit enough to do himself justice, I think he will be too good for them.

Certainly, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him – provided they are prepared to accept the risks that I’ve just covered.
I suspect he will win…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Sand 1:50 Masterplan 0.375 pt win 9/2