Daily write-up - Dec 1st

There are 3 NH meetings today; at Market Rasen and Leicester in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

There should have been a fourth, at Wincanton, but it has been claimed by frost…

It’s the same old issue of low grade mid-week racing…

There were a couple of class 3 handicaps on the Wincanton card – but otherwise, it’s a bag of class 4,5, & 6.

Tipping in such races is fraught with danger.

Low-grade animals are rarely the most consistent - and I’ve also little idea whether today is ‘the day’ for the ones I could fancy.

Whilst the quality of racing remains as it is, then there will be few mid-week tips.

Most of the tips will have to be issued over the weekend, because that is when the racing in which we have a fighting chance, takes place.

That’s the game as it currently stands – there is little point fighting against it…

Today is the first day of December – so a new month is stretched out in front of us.

November was more of a roller coaster than I hoped (or intended !) – but I guess that’s the nature of the beast.

Hopefully most of you came out the other side, with your nose in front – even if only just !

As you should all be aware, it’s the first day of the December Naps competition in the forum.

The competition that Dave organised last year, was a big success – and I’m sure this years version will be exactly the same.

At the last count, there were 23 entrants – which is a good effort – but I know we can do better than that!

I’m hoping for at least 30 – so if you’ve not yet taken the plunge, let me try to persuade you…

The competition is dead simple – and free to enter.

You just have to submit 1 nap, per day, during December.

You don’t even need to do it every day – just a minimum of 20, during the month.

You can submit your nap by either via the forum – or by replying to the daily Naps email (assuming you access the forum via email) which Dave will create, for each day.

Naps need to be submitted before noon – and you can either take SP or the current price on Black type.

There is a first prize of £100, for whoever makes the biggest profit (or smallest loss !) during the month.
Additionally, everyone who makes a profit during the month, will be given a free £10 bet on a horse of their choice, at a meeting on New years day.

What better way to start the New year !!

You don’t need to be a form expert to join in – just get out your lucky pin and hope for the best !

What have you got to lose ? You know it makes sense

Anyway, enough of that – and on to todays racing…

There is an eye catcher running at Market Rasen and a strong mention at Thurles - here’s the rational and a few brief thoughts…

Market Rasen

1:55 Calin du Brizais was an eye catcher last time out, at Chepstow…

That was in a deeper race than todays and he ran perfectly well, to finish fourth.

My feeling that day, was that he maybe didn’t quite get home – so I’m a little concerned to see him running over the same trip today.

That said, the pace of today race is unlikely to be as fierce, so that will help preserve his stamina.

However, he sports first time cheek pieces today – and whilst they will doubtless gee him up a bit, they won’t improve his chances of getting home.

His trainer, Nigel Hawke, has a good record at Market Rasen - but is currently not in the best of form.

In short – for each positive, there seems to be a negative !

He’s tough one to call – but in a race where it’s not easy to get a handle on most of his opponents, I can resist the temptation to tip him at 7/2 (even though I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him win).

2:25 I did quite like the look of The Last Bar in this – but he’s a monumental drifter…

He was a 7/2 shot last night – but can be backed at 8/1, as I type this.

My anecdotal observation, is that drifters from Dan Skeltons yard, don’t win. With him so weak in the market, I couldn’t therefore get involved…

In truth, it’s not a race where you could have a particularly strong view.

Chic Theatre and Next Edition are the obvious alternatives – but they are the ones the market likes and I wouldn’t be prepared to back either, at a short price.

If some confidence in The Last Bar materialised, close to the off, I might be interested – but otherwise, it would have to be a watching race…

Leicester

2:35 This looks an open race – and Pulling Power is the one who appeals most…

She ran creditably in a better race than this, last time at Ascot.

That was also her seasonal debut – and her first run since a breathing operation – so there is a chance she will come on for it.

She just gets into todays race, with top weight – but the booking of 7lb claimer, Mikey Hamill, will reduce the weight she actually has to carry.
That said, she’s a big mare, so I wouldn’t have much fear about her being able to shoulder the burden.

The biggest issue, is the opposition she faces.

It’s difficult to quantify the ability of a number of her rivals.

Provided the dead 8 go to post, then she would be a tempting EW bet at 11/2, as I will be surprised if 3 of her rivals are better than her.

She may even be the best horse in the race – but 11/2 seems about the right price, to find that out…

Thurles

12:15 You do wonder a bit about the point of some of these beginners chases…

Simply, provided they jump round, either Bachasson or Tully East, will win this.

The fact of the matter is, nothing else will want to get close to them – because if they do, it will mess up their future handicap mark.

In fairness, such races are often 1 horse affairs - but I just feel that Tully East might be prepared to have a go at Bachasson today (as his connections are thinking of the graded route for him, rather than the handicap route),
That being the case, then Tully East was a fair price at 9/2 last night (in what is effectively a 2 horses race).

The juice has bee taken out of the price this morning – and 5/2 is probably the right price.

12:45 I was sorely tempted to take a risk on Il Fenomeno in this - but I’ve resisted…

I think he will run a really big race – I’m just not convinced that he will win.
The issue is simply the trip. He’s quite a free going sort – and this is the longest trip he has faced.

He struggles to get home over 2m4f, so I suspect 2m6f will be too far for him.

I can see him running really well: he’s got plenty of back class – and showed up well on his seasonal debut.

That was at Cork, 11 days ago – and in a slightly stronger race than todays.

If he has come on for that run (which I would expect to be the case), he’s going to be a tough one to beat.

The trouble, is that are 3 or 4 interesting ones in the race – and I can see him being run down between the final 2 fences.

Smadyinum won well last time and is the most obvious danger: though I would also be worried about Mick the Jiver (who has plenty of potential).

I could also see Fr Humphrey running well at big odds – though he may be one for next time.

My plan will be to back Il Fenomeno pre-race and lay him off in running.
There is a chance he could surprise me and show unexpected stamina reserves – but I suspect more likely, he will show up well until fading in the closing stages…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Eye Catchers

MR 1:55 Calin du Brizais