Daily write-up - Dec 28th

There are 4 NH meetings today (probably): at Leicester and Catterick in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland…

After the quality of Kempton, Chepstow and Wetherby, it’s back down to earth with a bump !

The meetings at Leicester and Catterick offer low grade racing, with little of interest.

Things are slightly better at Limerick, where there is a listed hurdle and a veterans chase – but it’s hardly inspiring stuff…

Fortunately, the Leopardstown Christmas meeting reaches its peak with the Lexus chase.

There are also a number of good class supporting races on the card - most notably the Christmas hurdle.

That said, betting opportunities, are thin on the ground.

It didn’t take me too long to realise that there would be no tips on the day.

There are no Top Picks either - and not even an Eye Catcher running.

All I’ve managed to find, are a few Mentions…

Here are my thoughts on the main races on the Leopardstown card…

Leopardstown

12:50 As you would expect for a Pertemps qualifier, this looks a bit of a minefield…

There are 25 runners and it is difficult to eliminate more than 10, with any degree of confidence…

Woodford Island finished third in the corresponding race last year, as a 4 year old – and off a mark just 1lb lower. He’s been running over fences recently, but returned to the smaller obstacles today, he must have a chance.
If the ground were softer, I would also give Rathpatrick a chance.

He was behind Woodford Island 12 months ago – but won on his next outing, when Barry Geraghty took over in the saddle.
Geraghty is on board today – which makes him interesting, particularly if he is backed…

Rossvoss ran well last time out, on his first run of the season – though he doesn’t look particularly well handicapped: whilst Voices of Spring is of interest, for Tony Martin – and with Donagh Myler on board.

In truth however, you are probably best either supporting the markets mover - or just watching the race (which is probably what I will do !).

1:20 This is a really strong Beginners chase – and whilst the market only gives 3 of them a chance, I’m not so sure…

Gangster, Acapella Bourgeois and Bleu et Rouge are the 3 that head the betting – and they all have good chances.

Gangster is probably the one that appeals most – but he is plenty short enough at 2/1.

It is interesting that Barry Geraghty rides Bleu et Rouge, as I could give a good chance to owner companion, Don’t Touch It.

Both horses won Grade 1 events over hurdles last season  - and Don’t Touch It has the benefit of a recent run over fences.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there is not much between the 2 horses and at more than double the price, Don’t Touch It looks the better bet.

The other 2 worthy of a mention are Gwencily Berbas and Jett.
I could see both running well – though maybe not quite well enough to win…

1:50 Whilst according to the form book, she is no certainty in this, I expect Vroom Vroom Mag will find a way to win.

Having won the mares hurdle at the Cheltenham festival and the Champion hurdle at the Punchestown festival ,it was a little surprising to see her beaten on her seasonal debut at Fairyhouse, by Apples Jade.

However, that one is also an exceptional talent and Vroom Vroom Mag lost little in failing by a short head, to give her 4lb.

She will doubtless have improved a little for the run – and, with the mares allowance, she looks very much the one to beat in this.

That said, she does face some potentially tough rivals.

Chief amongst them is Snow Falcon, who we were on last time when he fell at Newbury.
He was still going very nicely when he came down that day and may well have give n Unnowhatimeanharry a race.
That is decent form – so he shouldn’t be underestimated.
If his jumping was more robust, he would look an EW bet to nothing – but as was shown at Newbury, his technique isn’t great and there will always be the chance that he will make a race ending mistake at some point.

Of the others, then Shaneshill and Clondaw Warrior should both run OK – but I can’t see them wining.

Kotkikova is the potential fly in the ointment.

She makes her debut for Nicky Henderson today, having won a grade 1 chase in her native France. She really could be anything – and it’s interesting that Henderson is choosing to start her in this race.

The market will almost certainly guide on her chances…

The only other one to make any appeal, is De Plotting Shed.

He is held on form by Snow Falcon – but not by a huge amount.

He has the greater scope for improvement –and his hurdling isn’t quite so chancy !

At 25/1, he could be worth considering EW (assuming all 8 go to post)

2:25 There aren’t many novice handicap hurdles run in Ireland – and it’s not easy to get a proper handle on this one.
That said, Tudor City sets a very high standard for a race of this kind…

He looked sure to win a hot novice handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last time out, but was out-battled up the hill.

He gets to run off just a pound higher mark today - and has Donagh Myler in the saddle to off set that.

He was a massively impressive winner on the flat at Limerick on his previous outing – and I’ll be a bit surprised if there is anything able to match him in this field…

Unfortunately, there is too much guesswork involved to consider getting involved 

– and his early weakness in the market is a little concerning.

If his price firms up nearer the off, I would expect him to win – if it doesn’t, I don’t know what will…

3:00 If you knew that he was in A1 condition, then Road to Riches EW, would probably be the bet of the Christmas period, in this…

Third in the 2015 Gold Cup and 2016 Ryanair chase and runner up in last seasons Irish Gold Gup, a peak form Road to Riches would almost certainly finish in the frame in this race.

He will get the decent ground he needs – and he has run most of his best races on the back of an absence.

However, he was operated on, following his run at Gowran in October and his trainer Noel Meade has said that he is likely to come on for the run…
In my experience, the market tends to tell things more accurately than the trainer – so keep a close eye on his price as the off time approaches.

Ignoring him, then it does look the 2 horse race that the market suggests…

Djackadam and Valseur Lido have much better form than all of their rivals – and they rightly head the betting.

It is possible that the likes of Zabana or Outlander will improve: or that Don Poli or Lord Windermere will bounce back to form – but they all come with significant risks.

Of the outsiders, then Fine Rightly is the one that attracts me most - and 16/1 about him finishing in the first 3, isn’t too bad a bet.

However, he is likely to finish third at best – and even that will rely on a number of his rivals under performing…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Leop 1:20 Don’t Touch It (O )

Leop 2:25 Tudor City (S )

Leop 3:00 Road to Riches (C )