Daily write-up - Dec 21st

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Ludlow and Ffos Las.

As I mentioned yesterday evening, the card at Ludlow is pretty good (for a midweek), with at least a couple of races of interest.

The quality isn’t as high as Ffos Las, but I’ve still managed to find some interesting angles…

In all probability, this is the last racing I’ll be getting properly involved with, before Christmas (or more specifically, Boxing/St Stephens day).

There is racing at Bangor tomorrow – but I’ll be surprised if there is much of interest (I’ll confirm this evening).

One thing I do want to give a little bit of thought to over this ‘mini break’, is how I can provide more specific guidance on the mid week races.

Tipping will remain difficult – but I am wondering about re-introducing formal mentions – and broadening the definition of Top Picks, so that you have more specifics to work with.

Hopefully I’ll be able to pull my thoughts together and get them out to you, over the next few days…

As for today, there are a couple of eye catchers running at Ludlow; some horses of interest – but no tips.

Here are my thoughts on a few of the races…

Ludlow

1:05 I’m a bit surprised to see Westwren Warrior installed as favourite for this…

I’m pretty sure he needs more of a stamina test, than 2m4f around a sharp track like Ludlow.

I also wouldn’t be overly keen on Zamdy Man. The trip should be fine for him – but he would prefer softer ground. That said, he is the first runner Venetia has ever had for J P McManus, so maybe she’ll be going all out to impress (though more likely she’ll be working on the horse’s handicap mark !).

As a consequence, the 2 to focus on would appear to be Kilcrea Vale and Cyrius Moriviere.

I prefer the chance of the former – even though he is making his seasonal/chasing debut – but he’s not much of a price (5/2).

I could see the sharp Ludlow track suiting Cyrius Moriviere well – and he is quite tempting at 6/1.

1:35 This is a really valuable race (relatively speaking), which I think is most likely to go to be won by one of the top two: Baltimore Rock and Sizing Platinum.

The former is making its seasonal debut, having been a late withdrawal from the Cheltenham handicap in which Sizing Platinum finished fourth, 11 days ago.

He has really strong form from his novice campaign, last season (his final 2 runs were in Grade 1 races won by Douvan), and if he is ready to do himself justice, he is probably the one to beat in this…

Sizing Platinum was an eye catcher at the Cheltenham October meeting, when he finished runner up to Fox Norton.
He’s run twice since then, so today is his final chance to win as an eye catcher.

I think there is every possibility that will be able to do just that, as this is much weaker race than the last 2 he has contested.

Choosing between the pair isn’t easy – and they are both well fancied in the market (7/2 shots).

If either one drifts to around 5/1, I would consider getting involved – but I can’t see any margin in their current prices.

Of the others, then Gardefort and Going Concern are the 2 that interest me most…

The former won this race a couple of seasons ago – but off a much lower mark: whilst the latter is more than capable of going close off his current mark.

I would be wary of Going Concern in particular, if he is strong in the betting…

2:40 Despite there being 15 runners, there are 3 stand out contenders in this race. Unfortunately, they are the top 3 horses in the betting…

Calett Mad and Sugar Baron are both totally unexposed novices, who could be significantly better than their current marks.

There is a lot of guesswork involved with them both – but it would be no surprises if either one provide good enough to win today.

Of the two, I would prefer the chances of Calett Mad, who won impressively on his UK debut at Newcastle. He’s still only 4, so gets a 7lb weight for age allowance – and that could swing the balance.

The third horse in the race of major interest, is Fox Appeal.

He is becoming spectacularly well handicapped – and it can only be a matter of time before he dots up, somewhere…

That could easily happen today (certainly, if Calett Mad and Sugar Baron disappoint) – and the booking of Richard Johnson, seems to significant.

Dickie was on the horse on its penultimate run at Ascot, where it ran far too freely.

I would expect him to ride more of waiting race today – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him cutting through his rivals up the home straight.

There are reasons for opposing most of the others…
That said, Daveron is quite interesting, on his second run back. He was an improver last season – and his stable of Ben Pauling has hit a good run of form.
The other one that catchers my eye, at a much bigger price, is How About It.

He has been pulled up on 4 of his last 5 runs, so you have to be a forgiving type.

However, he is well handicapped on course form from 12 months ago – and Harry Cobden riding for Rebecca Curtis (his only ride of the day), catches the eye.
Certainly, there are likely to be worse 25/1 shots running this afternoon.

The final one to mention, is Gallery Exhibition.

He was an eye catcher at Fakenham on his penultimate run, before showing little on his most recent outing at Bangor.

In theory, there is no reason why he shouldn’t run OK this afternoon – though I suspect the race will prove a bit too hot for him…

Ffos Las

12:50 There are a couple of jockey bookings that catch my eye at Ffos Las – and Davy Russell on Paddys Motorbike in this, is one of them…

In a way, seeing him on board isn’t surprising, as he has a retainer with owner Dai Walters.
However, seeing Davy over to ride a horse on it third run in a low grade novice hurdle, does seem interesting...
Maybe I’m reading too much into it – but he only has this ride and a second one on Gask Ridge in the novice hurdle at 1:50.

I’ll be a little surprised if at least one of them doesn’t go close…

With regard to this race, then Paddys Motorbike faces some dangerous looking rivals, in the shape of Billy Bronco, Ballymalin and Noble Robin.

I would expect the market near the off to guide – and money for Nobel Robin could be very significant – as too could money for Paddys Motorbike !

1:50 As I’ve just mentioned, I’ll be keeping an eye on Gask Ridge in this – but I’ll also be keeping an eye on Stay out of Court.

Tom Scudamore has come to Ffos Las to ride this, presumably in preference to going to Ludlow to ride Gone Too Far (who I thought could have been interesting, in the big race).

Stay out of Court has had just one run in a bumper, last summer, so is impossible to get a handle on.

However, he is owned by Paul and Clare Rooney – and I could well imagine David Pipe wanting to make a good impression on them.

Again, it’s speculation on my behalf – but market developments will be worth following…

2:50 This is the most interesting race on the card – and with a straight bat, I think Dr Robin, the most likely winner…

Certainly he was finishing very strongly last time at Chepstow, and I suspect he will relish today’s likely greater stamina test.

On that form I would expect him to have the beating of Walk on Al, who finished just in front of him, but is 8lb worse off today.

Highway Storm and Deputy Commander are the 2 obvious dangers - but at a price, I am quite interested in The Horsechestnut…

He did well over hurdles 18 months ago, for Jennie Candlish – but then wasn’t seen until recently, when running unplaced over fences in Ireland, for David O’Brien.
I’ve no idea what was going on – but the horse is back with Candlish today – and from a pure handicapping perspective, has every chance…

It will all depend on what form he is in – and I would expect the market to advise on that.

He is currently a drifting 16/1 shot – but if he was backed down in to single figures, he has the form to go very close…

3:20 I tipped Ashtown on the very first Sunday of this season.
He was a speculative play that day – but I felt a case could be made for him, based on his run in novice events.

Unfortunately, he didn’t perform at all (and was a huge pre-race drifter).

It’s therefore difficult to be confident about him today – but I still think he has the ability to win a race such as this.

There is no doubt he would be a gamble – but there has been some early support for him, which is interesting.

I don’t feel I can tip him again – but I wouldn’t put anyone off having a small bet, in what is a very poor race…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today

TVB.

Advise Summary

Tips

None

Eye Catchers

Lud 1:35 Sizing Platinum

Lud 2:40 Gallery Exhibition