Daily write-up - Dec 27th

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Chepstow and Wetherby in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Another very busy day – though it doesn’t feel quite as manic as yesterday.

In fact, whilst I’m a bit disappointed by the way the Welsh National has worked out, I quite like the look of some of the days other races...

Certainly, the tips could do with a bit of luck – though I can’t force it.

All I can do is try to remain consistent in the way I pick them and hope that things turn.

I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day – plus the same number of mentions, an eye catcher and a Top Pick !

Here are my thoughts on the day…

Chepstow

12:50 A really open race, in which all bar Knight of Noir, can be given a chance.

My initial feeling was that Ballycross might be the one – even though he was beaten by Sykes on his most recent run.
He finished like a train that day – and if the race is strongly run, nothing will be coming home better.

That said, I do wonder if 3 miles on reasonable ground, will provide sufficient test of stamina for him…

Tempestatefloresco finished runner up in that race – and he must have a chance of reversing the form with Sykes on a pound better terms.

He was certainly travelling best from the second last and was just worried out of it, close home.
That said, it will be no surprise, should any of the other 4 runners win…

Pobbles Boy easily won a novice event at Uttoxeter, on his chasing debut.

Subsequent events have shown the form to be extremely strong. However, Pobbles Boy has to run off a 14lb higher mark today – and has half a mile further to cover.

He could be up to the task – but there is little margin in his price (9/2).

Definite Outcome also has a chance. He too won well on his chasing debut – before unseating next time at Aintree.

I would fancy both of those a little more than either Ibis de Rheu or Pearl Swan.

All in all, it too difficult a race to be confident about.

At the available prices, then Tempestatefloresco is the value call at 12/1 – but it’s a race that is probably best watched…

1:25 I was quite tempted by Anteros in this…

He did is a huge favour earlier in the season when winning at Cheltenham – and I can see him running well again today.
The trouble is, whilst I can see him running well, I can’t quite see him winning.
He ran well last time out – again at Cheltenham – but the reality is that the handicapper has probably just got his measure.
I think Paul Moloney is a decent jockey booking for a horse who is best ridden patiently – and I can see him gradually creeping into things up the home straight.

However, if I were to tip him, it would have to be each way – and the potential profit on him getting placed, doesn’t quite seem to justify the risk…

Instead, I’m going to take a bigger risk on Awaywithegreys…

He has actually won this race for the last 3 years – so it’s a bit surprising that he is a 16/1 shot today.
That’s particularly so, considering that he is racing off a lower mark today than he was for any of the previous wins – and that’s ignoring the 7lb claim of his jockey.

The issue with him, is that he is coming into the race having shown no recent form – however it was the same story 12 months ago.

There is also a general belief that he is better on heavy ground – and it is true that he handles heavy ground better than most, however he won’t have an issue with ground on the soft side.

As a 9 year old, his best days are probably behind him – but you can almost guarantee that he will be at his peak today.
Whether that will be good enough for him to get the better of some younger and more progressive rivals, is open to debate – but I think he is worth a small risk at a big price.

2:40 I think you all know that I wanted to tip Bishops Road in this…

He was an eye catcher last time out, on his seasonal debut in the Rehersal chase at Newcastle – and the form of that race was franked today at Wetherby, by Definitly Red.

However, Bishops Road really wants soft ground (or worse) – and there has been little rain for the past 2 weeks.
Additionally, the late change of plan which has seen Native River running, has completely altered the complexion of the race.

He was a good winner of the Hennessy and off the same mark today, is going to be very hard to beat.
I might still have taken a chance on Bishops Road – but the booking of Paul Moloney doesn’t inspire me.
I just feel that if Kerry Lee was really going for it, either Jamie Moore would be on board – or a conditional jockey, able to claim some weight off the horses back, would have taken the ride.
Ofcourse I could be wrong – and as he’s now almost 20/1, I will doubtless have a little flutter on him. However, I don’t feel I can tip him…

The other one I could be interested in is Onenightinvienna.
He was one of two horses that I put up in my ante-post preview, that I felt would have a fair chance on decent ground.

He was a 25/1 shot then – but is 8/1 now…

With Richard Johnson presumably choosing Native River in preference to him, he makes very limited appeal at that price…

In truth, this doesn’t look the deepest of races – and it’s not hard to see Native River leading throughout.
His price of 3/1 is too short to consider getting involved with, but I’m not keen to take him on either…

3:15 It’s really difficult to look beyond Aso in this…

He’s been placed in two ultra competitive Cheltenham handicaps only his only runs this season - and gets into this much easier race today, off virtually the same mark (just 1lb higher).

He will be well suited by todays trip and ground – and simply, if he is in the same form that he’s been in the last twice, he will win…

Drumlee Sunset is the obvious danger, as he still has scope for improvement - however, so too does Aso.

I’m not going to start tipping 2/1 shots – but if you can get that price, I think he’s a fair bet.

I expect him to win – so will make him a Top Pick.

Kempton

1:45 It’s not a betting race, but make sure you watch Altior in this…

He’s a potential superstar – and provided there are no accidents, he should take the race en route to a showdown with Min, in the Arkle, at the Cheltenham festival…

2:20 Again, not really a betting race, but Special Tiara should be able to take advantage of the 10lb he receives from Sire de Grugy.

The quicker ground will suit Special Tiara better than his main rival – and I expect him to make all.

Even money is very fair – if you like betting at that kind of price…

2:55 I’m pretty keen on Beltor in this – though just a little nervous about some of the unexposed horses he faces..!

He is a horse who first burst on to the scene, when winning a grade 2 event as a  4 year old, over todays course and distance.

On the back of that win, he was sent off at just 7/1 for the Triumph hurdle – but Cheltenham was never going to play to his strengths in the way that Kempton does.

Simply Beltor is a speed horse – so a flat track and quick ground are what he needs.

He actually got both on his seasonal debut at Huntingdon – and travelled really strongly in the race, but didn’t get home.

His next run was on the AW at Kempton - and on the back of some strong market support, he comfortably beat Wolf of Windlesham.

That suggested that Beltor is at the top of his game – and he could easily make the handicapper pay for his decision to drop him 5lb following his Huntingdon run.

Certainly, conditions will be perfect for him today – and assuming there is some pace in the race, he looks sure to run well.

The big fear with the race is that there are quite a lot of unexposed horses running (certainly for this type of race, at this time of year).

Wait for Me, Aptasou and Drumcliff could all be a fair bit better than their current marks.

However, the market is wise to all 3 - and I hope that the proven form of Beltor proves to be the better option.

The other one worth a mention, is Bertimont.
He travelled really well to the home turn, last time out on his second run back after a long absence.
I’m hoping he will make the running today – and could see him hanging around for longer than people expect.
He can be backed at a very big price – and looks to be the ideal sort for a pre-race back to lay in running…

3:30 Whilst there is a relatively small field for this, it is a competitive race.

Go Conquer was made favourite for a stronger race at Ascot, just before Christmas – but he fell at the first fence. The suggestion is that someone believes he is well handicapped, so assuming he jumps round without issue, he is likely to go well.

Bally Longford has made his way to favouritism and that is understandable on the back of a very good run at Cheltenham last time. He looked the most likely winner, turning for home that day – but didn’t get up the hill as well as his 2 main rivals.

There will be much less emphasis on stamina today – so if he can repeat that effort, he looks the one to beat…

Out Sam was made favourite for the Cheltenham race – but his jumping was dreadful and he eventually fell.

Kempton is not an easy course to jump round and it would be difficult to support him on the back of that run.

More Buck’s is the one that tempts me most.

He has impressed me this season, in winning 3 of his 4 races.

Admittedly he has been running against a lower level of opposition than he meets today – but he looks a progressive sort.

If I were to get involved n the raced, it would probably be with him – and I think there is a chance that he will drift to an acceptable price (I would be interested at 6/1).

The other one who half interests me, is Howlongisafoot.

He is having his third run for Chris Gordon today – and whilst he’s not shown much in his previous 2, he is falling down the handicap at quite some rate.
He ran in this race 12 months ago, off a mark 15lb higher.

He is still only 7 and it is only a matter of time, before he becomes competitive again. That might not happen today – but at 25/1+, I wouldn’t put anyone off taking a small risk on him…

Wetherby

3:05 I do like the chance of Just Cameron in this – even if I wasn’t so happy about the way his price was crashing first thing this morning…

I hit exactly the same issue early in the season, when I planned to tip Drumlee Lad and his price was crushed.

Clearly, someone issues tips just after 8:00 – and he and I tend to be attracted to similar horses.

It’s very difficult to know what to do in these situations.
Obviously, I don’t want you to be taking under the odds – nor jeopardising your accounts:  but equally, I don’t want to be missing winners.

Last time, the price had halved - and it was a minor race, so I decided against getting involved.
This time, the price had dropped by around a third – and it was a bigger race, so I figured it was still worth issuing.
Let’s hope I made the right call !
In terms of Just Camerons chance, then he’s a horse who has been on my radar for a couple of years.

He is a very talented individual, as his second to Un De Sceaux in a Grade 1 at Punchestown, 2 seasons ago, demonstrates.

I actually tipped him last season, also on his second run of the campaign, when he finished runner up to Dandridge at Doncaster.
That was a big run, against a very well handicapped horse - and Just Cameron can race today off a mark 1lb lower.

He has every chance on that form…

Apertix is favourite for todays race – but he is climbing the handicap quickly and he will find this much tougher than the 2 races he has won recently.

Arthurs Oak and Yorkist are the other two at the head of the market – but both of them would prefer much softer ground.
I did actually consider a saver on Yorkist – as I see him as the biggest danger and it strikes me as significant that Harry Skelton is at Wetherby to ride him…

Half chances can also be given to Imjoeking and Aye Well – but they are not in the same class at Just Cameron.

Leopardstown

1:20 As with the 2 races at Kempton, this isn’t a betting race – but it is one you should watch…

Douvan is possibly the most talented horse in training (accepting that Thistlecrack might have something to say about that !) – and assuming he jumps round cleanly, he will be way too good for todays rivals.

The trip is too short for Black Hercules, meaning that Sizing John is the most likely to follow him home.

That said, 10/1 about Alisier Dirlande in the ‘without Douvan’ market doesn’t look like a bad bet…

3:00 With 28 runners and over 100K Euro first prize, this is probably the most competitive race of the entire Christmas period.

I’m hoping that the key to unlocking it, is the Troytown chase, which was run at Navan, at the end of November.

A number of the runners in todays race, also ran in that – and Bonny Kate did best of them…

She actually did very well indeed – finishing third behind Empire of Dirt.

Turning into the straight, she looked to be going best of all – but it was her first run of the season, and she didn’t quite get home.
She still managed to finish in front of Noble Endeavour and Venetian de Mai – and I can’t see any reason why they should turn the tables on her.

In fact all the run did, was suggest that Bonny Kate was still improving.
She developed into a really useful mare last season – and was sent off favourite for the Irish National.

For some reason, she didn’t front run that day – and put in a below par effort.

Maybe it was just a long season catching up on her - and she certainly looked back to her best, last time at Navan.

Part of the attraction with her, is that she likes to race prominently. The importance of that, should never be underestimated in these big race fields as it means you are far less likely to hit traffic problems.

I really do think that her credentials are rock solid – and whilst you can never be confident in a race such as this, I will be very disappointed, if she doesn’t run a huge race…

Her style of racing will always make her vulnerable towards the end of a race, so I felt I had to go each way, in case something picks her off, close home.

There are a few others of interest in the race – but non are as solid as Bonny Kate.
The Crafty Butcher represents Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh and is difficult to quantify: the same is true of It Came to Pass, who was a very useful hunter chaser and is having only his second run under rules in this.
I could also be interested in top weight, Otago Trail.

It’s unusual for Venetia to have a runner in Ireland – though this one is a much better horse on heavy ground…

Limerick

2:10 I did plan to construct a case for Sumos Novios in this – but he’s just been declared a non runner !

With him out of the race, I don’t have a particularly strong view on it…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Chep 1:25 Awaywiththegreys 0.25pt win 16/1

BRT Kemp 2:55 Beltor 0.375pt win 8/1

BRT Kemp 3:05 Just Cameron 0.375pt win 11/2

BRT Leop 3:00 Bonny Kate 0.25pt EW 16/1

Mentions

Chep 12:50 Tempestatefloresco (O )

Chep 2:40 Bishops Road (C )

Kemp 3:30 More Buck’s (O )

Kemp 3:30 Howlongisafoot (S )

Top Picks

Chep 3:15 Aso (7/4)

Eye Catchers

Chep 2:40 Bishops Road