There are 5 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury,
Newcastle, Doncaster and Bangor in the UK – plus Gowran Park in
Ireland.
To
be honest, it’s too much.
There simply isn’t sufficient time for me to look at over
30 races.
Needless to say, I’ve focused on Newbury – but so has
everyone else – which makes finding nuggets nearly impossible.
I
couldn’t believe it when I saw last night, that Pricewise had tipped 3 of the
horses, I planned to tip today.
It
was the same yesterday, when he put up Ubak and Stiletto.
It
gives me a real dilemma, as once he’s tipped them, then any value in the price
(certainly the early price), will be gone.
I
may have to get back into tipping earlier on a Friday evening – even though it’s
not really ideal for anyone (me included !).
The
trouble is, I feel a certain obligation to focus on the big meetings and the big
races, as that’s where the majority of the interest is – plus, in theory, you
have a better chance of getting on.
However, I do think there is a danger that I might be
missing easer opportunities at some of the smaller meetings…
In
fairness, the eye catchers help with that.
There are 6 of them running this afternoon – but only 3
of them at Newbury.
Here
are my views on all of them – plus the rationale behind todays tips – and a few
thoughts on some of the days other races…
Newbury
12:55 The mighty Thistelecrack gets his third
outing over fences in this – and it will be a big surprise if he’s
beaten.
Certainly, the fences at Newbury are very fair – and his jumping
technique is generally sound.
Hopefully, there will be no hiccups along the way – and
he will remain unbeaten over the bigger obstacles.
1:30 17 go to post for this – but I’d be
reasonably happy halving the field.
Anthony and On Tour both have chances – but both are also
plenty short enough in the betting.
Mystifiable is the most interesting of the market leaders
– but he resumes on quite a high mark and has to prove himself capable of
operating at this level.
Of
the outsiders, then O Maonlai and Tjongejonge have a better chance than their
odds imply.
However, the 2 that interest me most are Generous Ransom
and Warriors Tale – I just can’t believe that Pricewise has picked up on them
both !
Generous Ransom was an eye catcher last time, on his
first run for Philip Hobbs.
He
was very well backed that day – but was never really travelling.
It’s
impossible to be adamant as to why that was. My feeling was that it might have
been the quick ground – and if that was the case then he could struggle again
today.
However, Philip Hobbs tries a tongue tie for the first
time – and there is also the possibility that he may just have needed the
run.
Whatever, I think he is worth one more try – as he is handicapped to
win.
Warrior Tale is not as well handicapped – but he’s not as exposed
either.
He
ran really well at this meeting 12 months ago, when beaten a head by
Spookydooky.
He’s
disappointed a few times since then and therefore gets to run off a 5lb lower
mark today.
He
showed very little on his seasonal debut at Carlisle but I would expect him to
leave that run behind today.
The
ground won’t be an issue for him – so I am splitting stakes and having the
greater amount on him (as he is also the bigger price).
2:05 Born Survivor and Onefitzall are the 2 of
real interest in this – but the market is wise to them both.
The
former ran a nice race on his seasonal debut at Aintree and with that run under
his belt, looks the one to beat this afternoon.
Onefitzall is similarly unexposed - and ran a similarly
good race on his seasonal debut: chasing up Definitly Red at
Carlisle.
It
is possible to speculate about both Battle Born and Favorito Bucks – but they
have significantly more questions to answer.
Whilst Gibralfaro could improve for a step up in trip –
but I he will need to…
At a
price, I would have been prepared to take a risk on either Born Survivor or
Onefitzall – but at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, margins are a bit too tight to
warrant getting invovled.
2:40 It was a bit disappointing to see Tommy
Silver so well backed, yesterday evening – but it wasn’t surprising.
He
was put in an 8/1 shot – and in a race which doesn’t look particularly deep,
that was too big.
He
under performed on his seasonal debut at Ffos Las – but that’s not unusual for a Paul Nicholls
runner. I suspect that he will leave that run behind this afternoon.
Certainly, it is interesting that Nicholls considered him
good enough to contest last seasons Triumph hurdle.
Admittedly he was the stable third string that day – but
he still ran a fair race to finish seventh – splitting his more fancied stable
companions, Clan des Obeaux and Frodon.
Both of those have gone over fences
this season – and both have shown themselves to be very decent
animals.
On
his only other run last season, Tommy Silver finished a highly creditable third
to Wolf of Windlesham, at Sandown.
He
runs off the same mark today – and on that form, he must have every
chance…
What
I do like about this race, is the fact that it doesn’t look that
strong.
A
good case can also be made for Ozzie the Oscar – but he is the race favourite:
whilst Omessa Has could be anything. However, outside of them, there doesn’t
appear too much to be worried about.
Who
Dares Wins would probably be better over further; whilst Warren Greatrex is
struggling for form, which isn’t a positive for the chances of Ritual of
Senses.
In
short, 5/1+ about Tommy Silver, seems to be a very fair bet.
3:10 The Hennessy has been turned over by the guys
in the forum – and I’m not sure I can add a lot to their discussion…
My
feeling is that the race will most likely be won by a second season novice – but
they are dominating the market.
My
short list of 4 consists of Native River, Vyta Du Roc, Blaklion and Un Temp Pour
Tout – so pretty much the first 4 in the betting !
At
bigger prices, I could give a chance to Aubusson, Caroles Destrier and
Upswing.
Of
the last 3 named, then I would probably favour Caroles Destrier – mainly because
his stable (Neil Mullholland), is in better form than that of the other
2.
In
terms of the most likely winner, then I would suggest Blaklion – and he may not
be a bad bet, if you can get a double figure price.
That
said, it’s a race which I found easy enough to leave alone, from a tipping
perspective…
3:45 I was pretty keen on the chances of
Whispering Harry in this – until he got tipped up everywhere else !
Obviously, that won’t stop him from winning – but it will
reduce the odds we can secure, and that’s a pretty important aspect of betting
!
I
actually tipped Whispering Harry in this very race 12 months ago – when he was
beaten by Grey Gold, having looked sure to win, jumping the last.
The
2 meet on exactly the same terms today – but as the younger horse, Whispering
Harry could still be on the upgrade, whilst Grey Gold is possibly in
decline.
Whispering Harrys course form at Newbury is actually very
good.
In
addition to his second place in this race, he also has a win over hurdles – and
a second to Ultragold, in April.
He
is weighted to reverse that form with Ultragold – so even though he’s an
official eye catcher, from his most recent run at Exeter, I have to pass on him,
today.
I am also passing on Parsnip Pete, who is another eye catcher, running
in the race.
He ran well at Aintree last time – but that’s a course where he
always performs well.
In
fairness, today’s decent ground should suit him well – but I just think he might
struggle to give a stone to the younger Whispering Harry.
Newcastle
2:55 Sceau Royal has looked a much improved
performer on his two runs this season – but I think he might have his work cut
out to contain the Gigginstown pair in this contest.
Apples Jade and Petit Mouchir ran in the same race at
Down Royal, last time.
Both
were making their seasonal debuts – and Apples Jade did best of the duo, in
finishing second to Rashaan.
However, that was a disappointing run from her (she was
sent off 1/2 fav) and the fact that Brian Cooper has chosen Petit Mouchir this
afternoon, seems significant.
In
truth, it’s not really worth speculating at the odds on offer – but my feeling
would be that Petit Mouchir is the one to beat – and that 3/1 is a fair enough
price (if a little short in absolute terms!)
3:30 Virak and Wakanda fought out the finish to
this race 12 months ago – and I would expect both to run well again this
afternoon.
Wakanda just came out on top last year – but I think
Virak might be able to get the better of him today.
However, I think they
face a couple of very serious rivals, in the shape of Bristol De Mai and
Definitly Red.
Bristol de Mai is a graded horse running in a handicap –
and they always need respecting.
He
is also a young horse – so could still be improving.
Todays 3 mile trip is a step into the unknown for him –
but it will take a good one (or a very well handicapped one) to beat him, if he
does stay the trip.
Unfortunately for him he might have bumped into a very
well handicapped one (and also a quite good one), in the shape of Defintly
Red.
His
form over fences last season, stands up to close scrutiny – and he looked an
improved performer when winning over hurdles on his seasonal debut at
Carlisle.
He
gets to run off a mark of just 142 this afternoon – and that could underestimate
his ability by around 10lb.
I think it will be tough for Virak to run to a
level 10lb higher than his current rating –and whilst Bristol de Mai might be
able to do so – it will require a serous performance from him.
Brian Hughes takes the ride on Definitly Red – which
considering his current form has to be a big positive.
It’s
tempting to make Definitly Red a Top Pick – but he is facing some serious
rivals, so he really will need to be on ‘A’ game.
If
he is however, I do think he will win.
Bangor
12:00 Truckers Highway was an eye catcher last
time out, when running over 2m4f at Bangor, just over 2 weeks ago.
He was
ultimately pulled up that day – but led for a good part of the journey, until
lack of fitness caught him out.
I
would expect him to strip a lot fitter today – and whilst I would maybe prefer
to see him running over the same trip, he has enough pace to be effective over 3
furlongs shorter.
In
fact, I would expect his jockey to grab the race from the start and try to make
every post a winning one.
The
betting says that Supreme Asset is the main danger – but he is actually the one
I am least concerned about.
I am more concerned about Un Anjou and Colins
Brother.
However, the former is returning from over a year on the side lines:
whilst the latter is running over a trip short of his best.
Colins Brother is actually handicapped to win the race –
though he is liable to make the odd mistake – and I can see his jumping being
put under pressure over trip which is a fair bit short of his best.
I
can certainly see a scenario where Truckers Highway wins this – though it will
require his jockey to control the race from the front and expose frailties in
his rivals.
The
question in my mind was whether it was worth taking a risk at the odds available
– and I decided it was.
Fingers crossed !
1:05 I tipped Askamore Darsi exactly a week ago,
when he ran in a handicap chase at Haydock.
That
was on the back of an eye catching run at Carlisle – but he caught nobody’s eye,
last week !
He
was under pressure from an early stage – and only moved out of last place, when
he was eventually pulled up !
It
was a truly lamentable performance – and I really didn’t except to be tipping
him again, a week later.
However, there a few things which are compelling me to
get him on side.
Firstly, the fact that he is running just a week later, is
interesting in itself.
It
suggests that his poor performance last week, was caused by an issue in his
head, rather than anything physical.
This is supported by the application of
a first time visor. Askamore Darsi has worn cheek pieces in the past – and
indeed blinkers – but this is the first time a visor has been used.
However, the thing that attracts me most to him is the
race title.
This
is a race run in memory of Ginger McCain – and Askamore Darsi is trained by
Ginger’s son, Donald.
I’m
pretty sure that he will want a runner in the race capable of doing him justice
– so he must believe Askamore Darsi capable of bouncing back.
And
if he does, then he has to go close.
I
fancied him for a stronger race last week – and if he hadn’t run in that, I
would be all over him in this – and, no doubt, at a much shorter price
!
Doncaster
1:55 Bigpipenotobacee was an eye catcher last time
out, when he ran in a decent novice hurdle at the Cheltenham October
meeting.
He
only finished fourth that day – beaten a fair way – but it was clear that 2
miles over hurdles, was a wholly inappropriate test for him.
He’s a very big
horse – who needs fences and more of a trip – and that’s precisely what he gets
this afternoon.
And that makes him interesting – very interesting - but
unfortunately, he is facing some equally interesting rivals !
In
fact, there is barely a runner in the 8 strong field, that you couldn’t
construct a case for.
All
are either debuting over fences – or have shown significant promise in very
limited chasing careers.
This
will come down to which one is best suited by todays test…
My
feeling is that Doncaster is not the ideal track for Bigpipenotobacee – and I
would just be a bit fearful that connections might opt to simply get a run into
him and hope the handicapper adjusts his mark downwards (which he would probably
do, if the horse ran poorly).
My
suggestion would be to keep an eye on the betting - if he is well backed, maybe
get involved, but otherwise, take a watching brief.
We can always pick him up
again, further down the line…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
BRT
Newb 1:30 Warriors Tale 0.25pt win 12/1
BRT
Newb 1:30 Generous Ransom 0.125pt win 8/1
BRT
Newb 2:40 Tommy Silver 0.375pt win 5/1
BRT
Newb 3:45 Whispering Harry 0.25pt win 10/1
DT
Bang 12:00 Truckers Highway 0.5pt win 7/2
DT
Bang 1:05 Askamore Darsi 0.25pt win 9/1
Eye Catchers
Newb
1:30 Generous Ransom
Newb
3:45 Parsnip Pete
Newb
3:45 Ultragold
Bang
12:00 Truckers Highway
Bang
1:05 Askamore Darsi
Donc
1:55 Bigpipenotobacee
