Daily write-up - Nov 20th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Exeter and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Punchestown and Cork in Ireland.

I was half tempted to take today off…

Producing write-ups on 5 consecutive days, takes its toll.

Don’t get me wrong, I can produce the write-ups no problem – but spotting the angles that are going to make us money, requires real focus and concentration…

I was disappointed with yesterday.

I should have thought longer about why Ch’tbello was running: and I should have recognised the potential danger of Three Faces West, in first time cheek pieces.

But unless you are feeling really sharp, these things can slip past you…

Having written all of this, I’m sure some of you are wondering why I’m producing a write-up today !

And to an extent, that’s a fair question.

However, I know how Sods Law works – and I’m sure it would kick in, if I dipped out of a day with some interesting races.

I’ll aim to take a couple of days break, at the beginning of the forthcoming week…

As for today, I’ve ended up issuing a tip.

We also have an eye catcher running – and there are a couple of other races of interest.

In fact, it’s quite a nice days racing – certainly too nice to skip completely

Exeter

1:20 This looks a bit of a minefield.

A case could be constructed for most of the runners – though a case could also be made against most of them as well !

My initial fancy for the race, was Abracadabra Sivola – as I instinctively feel he is better than his current handicap mark.

The rain will have helped his cause - but the absence of the cheek pieces which he wore on his final outing last season, puts a question mark in my mind.

He might be worth a risk at a price – but not at 5/1…

Royal Palladium is another who I could be very interested in.

If he can repeat the form of his seasonal debut from 12 months ago, when he was runner up in the Badger Ales chase at Wincanton, he should win this – but he didn’t repeat that level of form for the remainder of the season.
As a Venetia seasonal debutante he is also likely to be over-backed, so I  can’t really get involved with him…

Cailleach Annie has plenty of scope for improvement on just her third run over fences: whilst if Wizard Bridge could be guaranteed to jump round cleanly, he’s another who could just about  win.

However, the market is again wise to both of them – and there is no value in their prices…

The only one who I can see any value in, is Beforeall.
He was a winning tip on his seasonal debut last season - and is back down to a similar mark today (due to subsequent poor runs).

Trip and ground will be fine for him – and Thomas Gardner takes off a useful 3lb.
He’s a 20/1 shot currently – which could be considered fair.

However, if he is to win (or even run well), he will be backed - I’m pretty sure of that.

In truth, I think one of the first 4 named will come good – I’m just not sure which one…

1:55 There are some potentially very nice novices running in this race – and it’s certainly not one you could be adamant about.

American, Label Des Obeaux and Missed Approach are all making both their seasonal and chasing debuts – and all 3 have the potential to be very exciting novices.

The concern is that they might not be cherry ripe today – and that could give a chance to the race fit, Vieux Lille.

I also wouldn’t be overly keen to dismiss Private Malone. He split Silsol and Minella Rocco on his chasing debut 12 months ago, and that is very good form.

It has to be a watching race – but it should make for very good viewing…

2:25 This race has been destroyed by non runners – which is a shame…

I thought I’d narrowed it down to 4 – but they are 4 of the 6 who remain – so I’m not sure that’s much use to anyone !

For the record, the 4 I was interested in, were: Last Shot, Helium, After Hours and Walk in the Mill.

I could have been very interested in Helium – but his stable is enduring a wretched time – and he probably doesn’t want the ground too soft.

I’ve always thought that After Hours would make a very good chaser – but his chasing debut was disappointing.

He may come on a bundle for it – and I think the Exeter course and softer ground will suit him – but it wouldn’t be easy to support him (at the current odds).

Last Shot is a potentially well handicapped horse – but he is also a Venetia debutante, who has disappointed plenty of times. Again, there is no value in him.

By a process of elimination, Walk in the Mill is the one I would want to be with - but not at 5/2, when there are 3 horses in the race that I could be fearful of.

Another race to watch and learn from…

Uttoxeter

2:10 There’s yet another Venetia seasonal debutant running in this – only this time I could be interested in it…

Elenika is the horse in question and I think he’s very much the one to beat.

He ran a huge race on his seasonal debut at Wetherby 12 months ago, before falling at the last.

However, he made up for that on his next outing, when winning well at Chepstow (and beating Walk in the Mill).

Both of those runs were off the same mark that he races off today - so there is no doubt that he is potentially well handicapped.

He will also love the heavy ground – so there’s not a lot to dislike.

However, this is a decent little race – and odds of 4/1 represent limited value…

Wolf Sword is the obvious danger – though I could also be fearful of Mercian Prince (particularly if he is backed).

I would expect Capilla to make the running – and he could be a back to lay in running option (as he will be a fence clear at half way, unless his jockey can restrain him !).
Elenika is also a strong traveller and I would expect him to head the chasing pack – and probably cut down the leader, early in the home straight...

3:15 Another race which has been decimated by non runners.

However, it still contains an official eye catcher, in the shape of Noble Legend.

He caught the eye last time out at this track, when running better than it appeared.

I reckon he will strike soon – but I don’t think it will be today.

For starters, I would want him to get an uncontested lead – and Grove Silver might have something to say about that.

I also think he faces a couple of dangerous rivals in the shape of Mumgos Debut and Little Glenshee.

Mumgos Debut is the most likely winner of the race (particularly if Nobel Legend and Grove Silver do take each other on for the lead) – but Little Glenshee is undoubtedly the value in the race.

So much so, she’s half tempting as a tip.

She is handicapped to go close today – and will be better for a recent debut run.
I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing her – and maybe covering with a forecast for her to finish second to Mumgos Debut.

Punchestown

You will rarely see a less attractive betting card, than this one !

5 conditions races, all with very short priced favourites: and 2 handicaps – which JP McManus will doubtless call the shots on…

Suffice to say, Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief should win the Morgiana and Craddockstown, respectively.

Disco doesn’t look quite such a certainly in the Florida Pearl chase – and I might be prepared to take him on with Jetstream Jack – but it is guess work…

If After Rain gets backed in the opener, he’ll probably win: it he doesn’t he probably won’t !

Whilst Travertine looks the interesting one in the 3:25 – but he’s another JP owned horse, so all we could ever do, is follow the money…

There will be better punting cards run at the track, that’s for sure !!

Cork

3:35 There’s only really one race of interest on the Cork card – and it was my intention to tip Dysios in it…

He won a decent 2m handicap chase at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting, just under a year ago – and he runs off a mark just 4lb higher today.

He’s also had a recent spin on the flat – presumably to blow away the cobwebs.

I was a bit surprised that he was put in at a double figure price – but on closer inspection, I found that I couldn’t tip him…

That’s because he is held on form, by Westerner Point.

The two of them ran behind Solita at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting – and Westerner Point finished well ahead of Dysios that day.

The betting expected that to be the case – and there is no change in the weights today.

In short, there is no real reason why the form shouldn’t be upheld this afternoon.

I guess the one slight possibility, is fitness.

However ,Westerner Point won on his seasonal debut last year. He’s also a free going sort - and they tend to do best when fresh.

Furthermore, it’s interesting to note, that Westerner Point is trained by Eoghan O Grady.

He trains in Cork – so it’s reasonable to assume he’ll have his horse in good form, for a run at his local track…

In additional to holding Dysios, Westerner Point also holds Westerners Son, from when the two met at Wexford.

As a consequence, the biggest danger is likely to be favourite, Riviera Son.
He is potentially well handicapped based on hurdles form – but won an egg and spoon race, last time and still has a lot to prove over fences.

He might be up to the task - but his connections mean he will be over backed –and consequently should be taken on.

Westerner Point is a fair bet and there is probably still a bit of value left in the current quote of 11/2.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Cork 3:35 Westerner Point 0.25pt win 13/2

Eye Catchers

Utt 3:15 Noble Legend