Daily write-up - Nov 12th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Wetherby and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

Day 2 of the Open meeting at Cheltenham.

There has been some overnight rain – but not as much as was expected.

My guess is the ground will be on the good side of soft…

Before I start on todays racing, just a quick word on yesterday…

I asked in the review, whether anyone had placed the tricast on the first race, and I was delighted to see that both Mark and Paul G had done just that !

They were therefore both jointly awarded the coveted title of ‘Star Pupil’!

More seriously, I do think it illustrates how you guys should be trying to use the write-ups.

I know there is a scramble whenever I issue a tip – but really, if you bide your time, the opportunities will present themselves.

It’s a long old season – every bet really doesn’t count !

Mark has a great attitude towards it all – he puts on whatever bets he can, once he’s awake and feeling able to do so !
Yet somehow, he manages to do very well from the service, season after season…

Paul is actually blogging in the forum, on his use of the Info service (he’s a recent convertee from Tips).

He’s had a decent week so far – and, needless to say, his P&L is looking a whole lot better than the official one !

That’s TVB for you..!

It is nice to see that Tea for Two can still be backed for he King George chase at 33/1, almost a day after I issued the tip…

I did think that issuing the tip in the middle of Cheltenham, might help preserve the price – and it looks like I was right !

Presumably everybody who wants to, has managed to get on the horse at that price.

I’m already quite excited about it, because I think it’s huge value (and we don’t get that very often, nowadays).

Anyway, that’s in the future – first my thoughts on today…

Cheltenham

12:40 A 4 year old hurdle race – hmmm…!

I suspect the winner will come from Defi Du Seuil, Wealth Des Mottes and Dino Velvet.

The last named is 8/1 – whereas the other 2 are 2/1 joint favourites.

It’s not hard to see where the ‘value’ lies…

That’s that race taken care of..!

1:15 There not a lot more to say about this one either…

Thistlecracks second outing over fences – and his first at Prestbury Park.
He could turn out to be an all time great – fingers crossed he gets round safely.
Watch and enjoy…

1:50 Things get a bit trickier now…!

That said, of the 4 big handicaps this afternoon, this one strikes me as the most solvable.

Jonjo has sent out 58 runners since his last winner.

He’s a master at getting horses right on the day that counts – but I just can’t entertain any of his horses at the moment.

He has the well fancied Minella Rocco, Beg to Differ and Upswing in this – but non of them are for me…

I can’t have Sausalito Sunset off a mark of 158, either – nor Viconte de Noyer, over todays trip.

There are a few others I’m happy to dismiss as well, leaving me with a short list of 6:

Unioniste, Cogry, Shotgun Paddy, Fourth Act, Doctor Harper and Racing Pulse.

Unioniste may need to drop a few pounds in the handicap; and whilst I can see Cogry running well, I struggle to see him winning.

I’ve no issue with Fourth Act – I just don’t fancy him as much as Shotgun Paddy.

Shotgun Paddy finished fifth in this race 12 months ago, off a 5lb higher mark.
That was also at a time, when Emma Lavelles horses weren’t running too well.
She’s back in form this season – and Shotgun Paddy is handicapped to win this.

He won the Warwick classic chase off a mark of 145 a couple of seasons back – and has produced a number of runs, which suggest he is roughly a 147 rated animal.

Assuming he’s fit enough to do himself justice today – and that the ground is on the soft side - I think he has 7lb in hand of his mark.

I would hope that would be enough to win – but there’s a chance it won’t.

If he is beaten then I think it will be by either Doctor Harper or Racing Pulse.

Both are unexposed over fences and have scope to be much better than their current mark.

The former was sent off 4//1 fav for last seasons NH chase at the Cheltenham festival, which gives you some idea of the regard he is held in.

His jumping let him down that day and I would be concerned about a potential repeat this afternoon. However, if he did get everything right, he could win this.

Only once last season, did Racing Pulse showed what he was capable of – but Rebecca Curtis was badly out of sorts for the whole campaign, so that probably shouldn’t be held against him.

He didn’t jump well prior to unseating here on his debut at the October meeting, so again, jumping is a worry.
However, if he gets everything right today, he has the potential to be much better than his current rating of 136.

In short, Shotgun Paddy is the solid option. However rather than back him EW, I’m opting to save on the 2 horses who I think could beat him, if things go their way.

2:25 The big race of the meeting: the BetVictor Gold cup – and what a race it is too !

19 horses – and in truth, it’s difficult to be adamant about anything !

I’d be surprised if the 4 year old, Frodon, was up to the job: whilst there are a couple of 3 mile horses in the race who I would struggle to fancy (Vintage Vinnie and Potters Cross).

Again, I can’t have the Jonjo horses (More of That or Taquin Du Seuil) or Venetias ( Aso or Tenor Nivernais) – though if I’m honest, it wouldn’t completely surprise me if one of them won…

Annacotty is badly handicapped: Cheltenham isn’t Art Mauresques course; Village Vic will likely improve for the run.

Yet despite eliminating all of these, I still have half the field left – and in truth, I struggle to take it much further…

From this point, I think you are looking at ground, tactics and luck, as the key factors…

Ultimately, I decide to plump for Stiletto.

He’s having his first run for Johnny Farrelly today, having transferred from Paul Nichols, over the summer.
Farrelly has acquired a few Roger Brookehouse horses (including Drumlee Lad !) hand he’s done very well with them.

Stiletto showed last season that he’s got a race like this in him, provided his jumping holds up.

He was sent off favourite for least seasons Stable Plate, but fell at the third fence.

I love the booking of Noel Fehily today – and I’m sure the horse has the natural ability to greatly exceed his current rating of 141.

Whether today is his day, time alone will tell – but I think he has a chance – and I think 16/1 underestimates that chance.

For those interested in the enhanced place terms offered by a few of the bookmakers, I’ve backed Buywise EW at 16/1 with B365.

They pay the first 5 home – and 4/1 against him finishing in the first 5, seems like a decent bet.

3:00 I’m sure a few of you have good memories of this race from 12 months ago, when Rons Dream came home alone, at 25/1 !

Happy days !!

I’m not feeling quite so confident about this years renewal – but I do think I’ve got a couple of interesting horses for us to side with…

The first of them is Corrin Wood.
Formerly a high class chaser with Donald McCain (where he was rated 156 at his peak), he sneaks into todays race, off a handicap mark of just 123, on his stable debut for Nick Skelton.
Now clearly there is a lot of guesswork in involved - but simply, if the horse is half the horse he once was – and is fit enough to do himself justice – then he could dot up.

In truth, he’s done nothing for nearly 2 years – so it is a vote of faith in Skeltons ability – but he does have a very good record with horses switching to his stable.

The other one I want onside, is a very different beast…

Anteros has the look of an inconsistent horse – but if you just consider his runs at Cheltenham, over hurdles, he looks a lot better…

True, he’s never won – but he’s contested some very strong races – and almost without exception, has run consistently well.

He has run 3 times at the course this year, and finished: third on New years day; second in April and seventh at the October meeting (when he looked like doing much better, turning in).

All of those runs were off higher handicap marks – and he has cheek pieces applied for the first time today.
I also like the fact that the excellent Paul Townend has again come over from Ireland to ride him.
He was on his back for his last run, so this almost strikes me as a vote of confidence on his behalf !

Whatever, I don’t think he’s a 33/1 shot – never mind a 40/1 shot – which some of the more patient amongst you could have got at 8:30…

Will o the West and Valhalla are official eye catcher running in the race – and I expect both to run well.

However, I am concerned about them both getting up the hill.

Over a little shorter, or at a different track, I would have been quite keen on Will o the West – but I just think today might be a bit much for him.

That said, he could still be worth a saver…

3:35 This race looks nearly impossible – so I’m not going to spend too much time previewing it…

There are a host of relatively unexposed, progressive hurdlers – and it really is anyones guess as to which one will come out on top.

I quite like the look of top weight, Who Dares Wins – and I would expect him to run a decent race.
Memes Horse is riskier – but is possibly a more likely winner…

The third one on my short list, is Fortunate George. He’s trained by Emma Lavelle, so is another who could look a different hoses this season to the one we saw last time round…

4:05 The mares bumper which closes the card is another race where a deal of guess work is required…

I would have thought that Brillare Momento deserved to be favourite, based on her run in the bumper at the October meeting.

Dickie in the saddle can only add to the appeal – and I would be a little surprised if there were 3 better than her in the race…

At bigger odds, I am drawn to Eloped.

She ran well from the front in a Uttoxeter bumper, which has worked out well.
The booking of Barry Geraghty is particularly eye catching.

I’m not going to get into tipping 25/1 shots in a bumpers – but she is definitely worth a speculative fiver !

Wetherby

2:05 If I could be sure the ground was on the soft side, I’d tip Indian Voyage in this.
He was an eye catcher on his penultimate start – and his most recent start confirmed that he either needed a step up in trip or softer ground.

He gets the former today (up in trip by half a mile) and that might be enough: but I just feel he wants some give in the ground as well.

In truth he might also get that – but until the racing is underway, we won’t know for sure…

I guess I could have taken a risk (and I very nearly did !) – but it’s a trappy race ,with a few potential improvers

Wells de Lune and Blanfords Gunner, are the two I fear most – though Shadows Lengthen is well handicapped, if the going isn’t too soft for him.

When the racing begins, if the ground does look soft, then I suggest Indian Voyage is an EW bet to nothing – and a very possible winner…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Chel 1:50 Shotgun Paddy 0.25pt win 10/1

BRT Chel 1:50 Doctor Harper 0.125pt win 12/1

BRT Chel 1:50 Racing Pulse 0.125pt win 16/1

BRT Chel 2:25 Stiletto 0.25pt win 16/1

BRT Chel 3:00 Corrin Wood 0.25pt win 10/1

BRT Chel 3:00 Anteros 0.125pt EW 33/1

Eye Catchers

Chel 2:25 Taquin du Seuil

Chel 2:25 Sizing Platinum

Chel 2:25 Potters Cross

Chel 3:00 Will o the West

Chel 3:00 Valhalla

Weth 2:05 Indian Voyage