Daily write-up - Nov 16th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Chepstow and Warwick in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland…

There should have been a fourth, at Hexham, but it was abandoned due to waterlogging: the meeting scheduled for Leicester on Monday was abandoned due to firm ground.
What diverse weather we have !

As is often the case during the mid week – the racing is of a low grade.

It’s interesting enough – but betting in it is fraught with danger (unless you are ‘in the know’ !).

It was my intention to tip Regal Flow at 8:30 this morning.

However, he’s running in a very trappy looking race – and as there seemed no pressure on his general price of 14/1 (16/1 in places), I decided to wait.

Mistake !

By 11:00 he was a general 9/1 – and I see very little margin in that price.

The trouble is, he faces a handful of his rivals, who could beat him – if on their ‘A’ game.
Now I very much doubt they all will be primed for today  – but one or two easily could be.

My preferred option would have been to back him EW – but I was fearful that there would be a couple of NRs from the original 17 runner line-up, which would have significantly altered place terms.

I did also consider saving on a couple of his rivals – but it would have been a case of choosing 2 from 5 or 6.

Anyway, the bottom line is, I missed the price – and it doesn’t strike me as a race where you should go chasing a price.

I’m sure a few you backed him early, as he is an official ‘eye catcher’.
If that was the case, then well done, I’m sure you’ve got a fair bet.

For the rest of you, he’s a strong mention – and you can back or leave him as you think fit (that’s the beauty of TVB !).

Anyway, here’s my thinking on him – plus thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Chepstow

2:25 As I’ve just said, this is a potential minefield of a race (it reminds me of the Sundays’ Southern National).

Regal Flow was the one I wanted to be with, on the back of his comeback run at Cheltenham.

That was his first run for Bob Buckler and he ran well enough, to a point, that day.

He was dropped 4lb for that run, which enables him to get into this race, with top weight.
However his burden will be reduced by 7lb, due to the claim of his jockey.

I really see no issues with him – and would expect him to run his race.

He might even be good enough to win – but there are a few who are handicapped to beat him, if back to their best…

Specifically, Financial Climate, Allez Vic, Fabreaga and Walk on Al, are all very well handicapped horses.

All are also making their seasonal debuts, so you are guessing, in terms of fitness (which is where the market can help).

More than that, Walk on Al has his first run for Fergal O’Brien. If he’s improved him, he could be hard to beat…

Of the 4, I was most tempted, to save on Financial Climate and Febreaga – but that was only the start…

Killcullen Flem, Calin de Brizais, Dr Robin, and Court Frontier are all potential improvers.

I prefer the claims of the well handicapped group – but it wouldn’t be a major surprise if one of the younger guns, improved sufficiently to win this…

In short, this is a very tough race.

That said, at 16/1 with 4 places, I would have been more than happy to take an EW shot at Regal Flow.

However, at 8/1 – and with the possibility of NRs later in the days, I’m afraid I’ll just have to watch (officially speaking, anyway).

3:35 On his seasonal debut at Newbury, 12 months ago, Laser Hawk ran third to Arzal and Aso, in receipt of just a few pounds…

Arzal went on to win a grade 1 chase at Aintree in April; whilst Aso ran fourth in the Betvictor Gold cup last Saturday, off mark of 144.

Meanwhile, Laser Hawks mark has dropped over stone, to 118 – and he runs in a class 4 race this afternoon.

If he runs up to the form of his Newbury run, he will walk this race – the trouble is, he’s not the most consistent of individuals (as 3 pulled ups in his next 4 runs, testifies).

I do like the booking of 7lb claimer, Lewis Gordon, today, to reduce his weight – and I’m not sure I see any rivals who fill me with dread.

The most worrying is Keeping Moving, a French import, who makes his debut for Philip Hobbs.

He could be anything - but the market is suggesting he’s not going to be at his peak, this afternoon.

Aside from him, then I would think Laser Hawk is much better class than the rest of his rivals – provided he consents to run his race.

Maybe 4/1 isn’t a bad price to find out – I’ll let you decide…

Warwick

2:40 I could see Bold Runner out running his dismissive odds, in this…

He’s a front runner, so his cause should have been improved by the defection of the other likely front runner in the race, What  a Scorcher.
He should be better for a recent pipe opener on the flat at Goodwood – and he’s not too badly handicapped, based on his run in a Wincanton handicap, at the back end of last season.
The worry is, that there might be an improver (or two) who are ahead of their mark.

Royal Plaza is the obvious one: but money for either Reillys Minor or Cabernet Dalene, is likely to be significant…

3:15 Yanmare and Copperfacejack fought out the finish to a similar race to this, at Uttoxeter, last month.
Yanmare came out on top that day – but Copperfacejack is weighted to turn the tables today.

I’m not sure he will though – as Yanmare has the greater scope for improvement (and Jamie Bargarry in the saddle !).

Most of their rivals look decidedly limited, so at a price, Yanmare would certainly be tempting.

However, Warwick takes bit of jumping – so that price would need to be a little bigger than the 5/2 on offer.

A forecast on the 2 of them, might be tempting for the more adventurous amongst you…

Fairyhouse

1:30 Logical Song was a big eye catcher, last time…

That was when finishing fourth in a Clonmel maiden, on the back of a long absence.

To an extent, it will depend which way he has gone since that race – but the market seems to be suggesting he has improved for it !
In truth, he’s not an easy one to get a handle on, as he’s only run twice in Ireland (on the other occasion, he unseated his rider in a novice chase).

From the bit I have seen though, I would suggest he’s got more than enough ability to be competitive off a mark of just 95..

1:45 Whitbers Choice and Mic Milano are the 2 obvious ones in this – but I’m also quite interested in Accordian Twilight…

He was only a reserve - but the defection of a couple of runners, should see him get a race.

He was sent off 6/4 fav for a Clonmel handicap back in February, on the back of a good run a fortnight earlier.

He was disappointing that day – and didn’t run again last season. However, he showed some promise on his reappearance at Galway, last month.
Clearly, I could never tip this sort – but I think he’s got a better chance than a price of 20/1 suggests…

Best of luck, if you do choose to get involved today

TVB.

Advice Summary

Eye Catchers

Chel 2:25 Regal Flow