Daily write-up - Nov 5th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Wincanton, Aintree and Kelso in England – plus Down Royal in the north of Ireland…

I’d almost forgotten the contrast between mid-week racing and Saturday racing – they are like 2 different sports !

Whilst the lack of recent rain means there are still some small fields today – the quality of horses on show, is at a different level.

What’s more, there has been some rain at most of the courses over night: not a deluge, just a few mm.

But it will get into the ground – and should result in more horses being sent to the track, very soon…

I spent a fair bit of time yesterday afternoon and evening, looking through todays races (taking yesterday off, gave me the space to do today more justice).

I focused on Wincanton and Aintree.

I would have been prepared to put the time into Down Royal – but the big races don’t take that much assessing.

I didn’t spend long on the Kelso card – though did find one horse worth keeping an eye on.

I ended up with 3 tips on the day: 2 of them are existing eye catchers, so I’ll be a little surprised if one or two of you weren’t on them, even before I issued !

Here is the rationale behind the tips – plus my thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Wincanton

1:35 There may only be the 4 runners – but this is a cracking novice chase.

I was hugely impressed by Virgilio when he won last time out at Newton Abbot – and I think he will take a lot of beating today.
However, it says much for the quality of his opponents, that he’s only third favourite.

In fairness, it’s the kind of race where it is impossible to be adamant – as all 4  runners fall into the ‘could be anything’ category.

Hopefully after the race, one of them at least, ‘will be something’..!

2:10 This looks a pretty straightforward race to read…

Aristo du Plessis and Rayvin Black, both like to front run.

With first time pieces in place, Aristo is likely to win that battle – but will probably end up going off too hard.

Rayvin Black wants much softer ground – so he may never actually get to the front.

Peckhamecho looks outclassed – so there are 3 to consider…

Sceau Royal and Zubayr both ran disappointingly when unplaced, in last seasons Triumph hurdle.

Sceau Royal has come out this season and been a very impressive winner at Cheltenham. As a result of that, he is a short priced favourite today.

However, he was behind Zubayr in the Triumph hurdle betting (admittedly, he finished slightly in front of him in the race – but I think that is irrelevant as both were beaten a long way) – and he has to give 6lb to him today (plus Harry Cobdens 3lb claim).

Paul Nicholls horses have been in tremendous form so far this season – and Zubayr himself won first time out last season (when capturing the Grade 2 Adonis hurdle)

In short, I just don’t think that Sceau Royal should be 6/4 and Zubayr 4/1.

The other one to consider is North Hill Harvey.

He was a decent novice last season – and his mark of 141 looks very fair.

However Dan Skeltons horses aren’t really setting the world on fire at the moment – so I think 3/1 is tight enough.

That said, if he is to win, I suspect he will be backed into even shorter !

The record of 4 year olds in this race is a bit of a concern for me (0 from 15 in the past 10 years) – so that’s not good for Zubayr (or Sceau Royal !).

However, in what appears to be effectively a 3 horse race, I just have to take a risk on Zubayr at 4/1...

3:20 There really was no way, that I wasn’t going to tip Roc Dapsis in this…

He was an official eye catcher last season, on the back of a huge run behind Theatre Guide in the old Racing Post chase at Kempton.

I tipped him next time at Aintree – but he didn’t perform that day. However, it was the end of the season – and maybe going left handed didn’t suit him.

I can’t be sure of exactly why, but I am willing to forgive him that run…

First time up this season, he ran at Hereford.
He was very weak in the betting that day, but travelled nicely in the race – until seemingly blowing up, half a mile from home.

My feeling that day, was that he would come on for the run – and was one to be on next time.

He was therefore put back on the ‘eye catcher’ list…

So we reach today…

He returns to the track, a month after his comeback run – and with the stable of Tom George, now in amazing form (over 50% strike rate in the past week or so).

He’s going right handed – and has Paddy Brennan on board (which is very interesting, as I thought his split with Tom George was slightly acrimonious – though I may be wrong).

His mark is now 3lb lower than it was at Kempton – yet he retains plenty of scope for improvement.

I just had to be interested at a price of 16/1+

The trouble is, the opposition. This is a potentially deep – and good class renewal of the race.

I say ‘potentially’ because in truth, we don’t know for sure.

A number of his rival are making their seasonal debuts – so it will depend on how tuned up they are.

The likes of Caroles Destrier and Ziga Boy could be very dangerous if spot on – I expect the market will advise on their chances…

Without that information, I would nominate the 2 Paul Nicholls horses: Southfield Theatre and Present Man as the biggest dangers – along with Fingerontheswitch.

I actually fear the last named most – as he is very well handicapped, based on his hurdling form.

However, he is inexperienced over fences – and his efforts so far have left something to be desired.

That said, if it all drops into place this afternoon, he will take a lot of beating.

Aintree

2:05 The first thing to do with Pertemps qualifiers, is figure out which horses will be trying to win the race !

A top 6 finish will guarantee a place in the final (at the Cheltenham festival) and that’s often the main objective for a few of the runners (the logic is that winning a qualifier can ruin a handicap mark – and therefore the chance of winning the final).

A few more in the field, will be chasers, running simply to get some fitness before being returned to fences…

Having applied these 2 ‘filters’ to the race, I arrived on Young Dillon as the most likely winner.

He ran a very good race last time at Newton Abbot, splitting a couple of horses who subsequently went on to run good races themselves.

I think he will run his race – and at 6/1, is probably a bet to nothing – though only probably…

The 2 David Pipe horses, Ennistown and Unanimite, both look potentially dangerous – particularly the former, with Tom Scudamore on board.

As does Caid du Berlais – who ran a promising race recently, on his return from a long absence.

I would expect Shutthefrontdoor and Kruzhlinin to simply be having spins over hurdles to get some fitness/confidence (I would be pretty sure that is the case for Holywell). However, Shutthefrontdoor is the only ride of the day for Aiden Coleman (and he will like the ground); whilst Kruzhlinin has Richard Johnson on top and is well enough handicapped to be dangerous…

There are reasons for most of the field under–performing – and if that happened, Young Dillon could well win.
However, I would expect at least one or two of the runners not to under perform, meaning that Young Dillon is most likely just to place…

3:10 Splash of Ginge was a big eye catcher, last time out at Chepstow.

Making his seasonal debut, he shot into a 4 length lead early in the straight and looked sure to win.

However, he tired after jumping the third last  - and ultimately only finished fourth.
The handicapper played ball and dropped him 3lb to a mark of 137 – he can certainly win from that mark.
Furthermore, Ryan Hatch is back in the saddle this afternoon (for his only ride) – and he takes off an additional 3lb.

The trip will be fine – hopefully the ground will have sufficient juice (there was rain last night) – and whilst Princeton Royal is likely to prevent Splash of Ginge from getting an uncontested lead, I think Splash of Ginge will be happy enough to sit in behind, if required.

In short, the case for Splash of Ginge is very strong…

However, he faces some dangerous looking rivals.

Orabasa ,Some Buckle, On Tour  and Thomas Brown, all have the potential to be a fair bit better than their current marks.

However, non of the 4 have run this season, so their fitness has to be taken on trust…

That’s not the case with Splash of Ginge.

I guess I could have put him up EW – and if it was a hurdle and not a chase, I might have done that.
However, one mistake in a chase and two bets can effectively be lost.

I do think that Splash of Ginge sets a demanding standard for the others – and I am hopeful that it will prove to be one which they won’t be up to surpassing…

3:45 I was hoping that I could find something to nail my colours to in this race – but I’m struggling to do so…

I can understand Parsnip Pete being favourite - but if the overnight rain has significantly softened the ground, it won’t help his cause.

I could be interested in Katachecko – if I knew he was fit enough to do himself justice. However, there must be a chance that he will come on for the run.

The same is true of Pearls Legend, who non-the-less, I would expect to run a big race.

If I had tipped in the race, it would probably have been Keel Haul.
He did us a massive favour at Cheltenham 12 months ago – and following a spin over hurdles last month, I suspect he will be ready to do himself justice today (the cheek pieces are also re-applied).

I guess I have 2 issue with him: firstly whether he will be suited by the quick Aintree track; and secondly the form of his stable, Henry Oliver (which isn’t really firing).

He’s got a chance – and at 9/1, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him – but I just don’t see quite enough to make him a tip.

Down Royal

2:00 The 3 ‘A’s look the ones to focus on in this race: After Rain; All the Answers and Ainslie.

I will be a little surprised if the winner comes from elsewhere – with the Barry Geraghty ridden favourite, After Rain, looking the most likely…

If you are after one at a bigger price, I would suggest Durelo.

He looks doesn’t look overly well handicapped based on hurdles form – but his rating is consistent with his decent flat rating.
He’s shown fair form in his 3 hurdle races to date – and still has scope for improvement…

2:35 There’s a lot of guesswork with regard to fitness in this – which makes betting in the race a bit too risky.

If simply trying to pick the winner, I would opt for Valseur Lido – and the 10/3 on offer early yesterday evening, was a fair price: however there is less margin in the 5/2, which is now available.

Silviniaco Conti has to be a danger – and I would expect him to be ready to run his race.

At a bigger price, the improving Saddlers Risk, shouldn’t be a 20/1 chance.

He’s only 7lb off Don Poli on official ratings – and is likely to be much fitter.

With an extra runner in the race, he would be very tempting EW (maybe the more creative amongst you, can find a way to play him, regardless !)

3:05 Betting wise, this race is similar to the previous one…

Sub Lieutenant could be backed at 5/1 early yesterday – and that was a good bet. However 11/4 now, makes far less appeal.
That said, I would still, just about, make him the most likely winner - though again, you are guessing on the fitness of a number of the runners.

Of the outsiders, I would expect Shadow Catcher to outrun his 40/1 odds (he may be a back to lay in running option).

And whilst Net Decosse is far more risky – he could be worth a tiny speculative play, at 50/1 on his first run for Noel Meade (having left Willie Mullins, on the back of the Gigginstown disagreement).

Kelso

2:20 This is the best race on the card, and whist I wouldn’t suggest backing Trickaway, I will be very interested to see how he performs on his first run for Malcolm Jefferson.
Formerly with Philip Hobbs, he doesn’t look overly well handicapped – but transferring him from the south to the north, night see him getting a few easier opportunities.

Jefferson has had his horses in incredible form for the past few weeks, so he is unlikely to want for fitness.

That said, it is a very trappy race – so a watching brief is probably best…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Winc 2:10 Zubayr 0.5pt win 4/1

BRT Winc 3:20 Roc D’Apsis 0.25pt EW 16/1

BRT Aint 3:10 Splash of Ginge 0.5pt win 5/1

Eye Catchers

Winc 3:20 Roc D’Apsis

Aint 3:10 Splash of Ginge