Daily write-up - Nov 2nd

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Chepstow and Musselburgh.

Musselburgh puts on 5 handicaps – but they are all low-grade affairs and it looks a card best avoided, for betting purposes.

I was initially quite keen on the Chepstow card – but there have been a raft of non runners this morning, due to the ground – and that has spoilt a few of the races.

It also makes be very wary about getting heavily involved – so I think it’s a day when the powder should be kept day !
In truth, if it wasn’t day 2 of the season, I’d probably take it off – but as I did have a few thoughts on the Chepstow card, I’ll share them…

Chepstow

1:10 This looked as if it was going to be a cracking race – but the defection of 3 of the main protagonists, has left a big hole…

Criq Rock and Charlemar seem to be the 2 to focus on – but they head the market and are both making their hurdling debuts.

It would be guesswork following either (though I’m sure the market will have a view !).

If Stuart has found out anything about Orchard Park, I’m sure he’ll post on the forum…

1:45 Non runners have also wreaked havoc with the following race on the card.
That said, the one I was most interested in – Flower Ball – remains.

It’s pure speculation on my behalf – but I’d read good things about him before his rules debut in a bumper, at Cheltenham, 10 days ago – and whilst he showed very little, I might be prepared to give him another chance at a reasonable price.

I’m guessing over the strength of his rivals though – so if you do get involved, don’t go mad on him !

2:15 I was most interested in Octagon in this – but not at 5/2…

He ran well last time on his debut for Harry Whittington – and I would expect him to improve on that.

However, he faces fences for the first time today - and some reasonable rivals.

Ozzy Thomas finished second in a hot renewal of this very race, 12 months ago.

However, he had the benefit of a recent run that time – and is 2 pound higher today – so it would be a little surprising if he were good enough to win, today .

Valseur de Granvil and Sartorial Elegance are the 2 others of interest – but all I’ve done is name the first 4 in the market – so hardly a great achievement !

2:50 As I mentioned on the forum last night, Third Act is the one that most interests me in this – but only if he’s backed…

He was sufficiently highly regarded, to run in the bumper at the Cheltenham festival 2 seasons ago – but he’s not shown a lot over obstacles since then…

That said, he runs off a mark of just 107 today – and has a decent 5lb claimer in the saddle.
I suspect he has the latent ability to destroy this field – and first time out could well be the time to catch him.
However, I would want to see market support first (a number of Colin Tizzards seasonal debutantes have run well recently – but they have all been well supported in the market).

3:20 Truckers Glory looks the most interesting one in this – but again, he’s favourite – and hardly bombproof.

I could certainly see a few of his rivals giving him a race, so there is no margin in a quote of 7/2.

I would expect Max Forte to go from the front – and he could be interesting from a back to lay perspective (though his price would need to drift a little first).

Silver Eagle is also quite interesting, as he is potentially very well handicapped.

However, that’s because he’s not shown anything for a long time !

Over hurdles today – and with a visor applied, he could bounce back – but then again...

3:50 I’m drawn to Calin du Brizais in this , even though the form book says he doesn’t stay 3 miles – and watching videos of him, I’d be inclined to agree !
What baffles me therefore, is why connections are persisting running him over the trip…

He looks like a good one for Francis’s dobbers thread on the forum – but I couldn’t honestly recommend backing him until he has proven his stamina.

Even with him out of the way, I don’t have a strong view on the race.

I’m a little surprised that Clubs are Trumps is priced up at 7/1 – and he may offer a bit of value – though he’s not one to be going mad on either !

4:20 For completeness, I would suggest Polydora and Alfies Choice, in the bumper that closes the card.

However, the very fact that I’m prepared to offer an opinion on a bumper, shows the kind of racing we are dealing with today !

There will be better days, for sure.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.