Daily write-up - Nov 19th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon, at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

I had a quick look at the Punchestown and Huntingdon cards, and whilst they are both reasonable, they weren’t sufficiently good to take my attention away from the days big 2 meetings – so the focus is on Ascot and Haydock.

In truth, the focus is mainly on Haydock – though a deluge of rain over the past couple of days, has created ridiculous conditions…

I could barely believe what I was watching yesterday afternoon, as the runners literally splashed their way round the track.

Doubtless a lot of that surface water will have soaked into the ground over night – and I can only imagine how it will be riding this afternoon.

Only the fit and the brave, need apply !

Despite (or maybe because of !) the conditions, it’s Haydock where I’ve found the best bets.

I’ve ended up with tips in 3 races – and there’s a few eye catchers out as well.

All in all, quite a busy day.

Here are my thoughts…

Haydock

1:15 Askamore Darsi caught my eye two runs ago, on his seasonal debut at Carlisle.

He ran really well that day, rallying into second place, behind Carrigdhoun.

He met that rival again, a fortnight later, at the same course and over 2 furlongs further.

I was sure Askamreo Darsi would come out on top – but I was wrong.

Carrigdhoun won once again – and Askamore Darsi was beaten a fair bit further.

That struck me as a little odd.

It’s true that Askamore Darsi was running on – but simply, I don’t think he ran to form that afternoon.

As a consequence, of that run, he was dropped a pound in the handicap – and if he can recapture the form of his debut run, I think he has a very big chance today.

He was a 20/1 shot last night – and I’m sure one or two of you had a little nibble at that price.

That was too big, in a race which at best looks open – and in reality, could end up a bit of a lottery…

It’s certainly possible to make a case of sorts for most of the runners – but instinctively, I feel that a relatively young horse, with a light weight, is the best option in what could be an extreme test.

The other 2 young horses with light weights are Voyage of New York and What about It – but I don’t think they have the stamina reserves of Askamore Darsi.

In truth, there aren’t many I would be adamant about ruling out – but I do like the look of Askamore Darsi, who is also local trainer Donald McCains only runner at the track…

1:50 Conditions will be far from ideal, but I suspect My tent or Yours will find a way to win this…

Certainly if he returns in the same form as when runner up in last years Champion hurdle, he will be far too good for his rivals. However, todays ground is likely to prove a great leveller.

I’d actually consider taking him on, if either Old Guard or Ch’tbello were suited by heavy – but they are not.

I’m surprised that Ch’tbello is even running – and I will also be surprised if Old Guard takes to the surface.

In the circumstances, it’s tempting to take a flyer on Melodic Rendezvous.

I would have done a couple of years back – as he loves heavy ground. However, he seems to be in decline – and even with ideal conditions, I just can’t see him getting the better of My tent or Yours.

That said, first time blinkers and the booking of Richard Johnson, are eye catching moves.

It would be a gamble, for sure – but I guess that at 10/1 he might tempt one or two of you in…

2:25 I got very close to tipping Yala Enki in this, on Tuesday…

He was a 14/1 shot at the time, but not guaranteed to run. I didn’t want to take a risk, tipping a potential non runner, so I decided to wait…

Unfortunately, once he was declared to run, his price crashed – and 8/1 was the best available yesterday.

He’s a 5/1 shot now – so that ship has sailed and I’ve got to move on…

Clearly, he’s got a very good chance - both on form – and with Venetia starting to fire.

I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him – but I struggle to see much value in the current price.

Instead, I’ve opted to split stakes on a couple of bigger priced horses. Both are risky – but the odds are there to compensate.

The first is Affair D’honneur.

He was a real eye catcher is last seasons Betfair hurdle, when he finished like a train, to take fourth place.

He runs off a mark 4lb lower today – which seems crazy – particularly as he is only 5 years old, and progressive.

However, he is a tricky customer – who has disappointed on his 3 subsequent runs – and connections are still trying to find the key to him.

He’s massively up in trip today – and first time cheek pieces are applied.

That’s not a combination I like - but I’m prepared to make an exception in his case !

The bottom line is: he has the talent to win this race; and he is handicapped to win this race. Whether ‘conditions’ will suit him, is a different matter, but I think its worth a stab at a price, to find out…

The other one I want on side, is Rathpatrick.

It just strikes me as a bit odd, that Eion Griffin is bringing just the 1 horse over from Ireland…

He finished a close up sixth in last seasons, Pertemps final, at the Cheltenham festival – and on that form, he’s got a chance.

He also loves very heavy ground…

I can see him staying on when others have cried enough. Whether he is sufficiently well handicapped to win, is a different matter – but I think he will run a fair bit better than most people expect…

3:00 The Betfair chase is the big race of the day – but it’s a very difficult one to call…

The 2 main protagonists are Cue Card and Coneygree – but both have question marks over them.

In the case of Cue Card, it’s the ground, coupled with the fact that he is almost 11; whilst with Coneygree, it’s the years absence…

If the 2 were at their peak, then Cue Card has the better form: he’s also shown it more recently – however, it just isn’t that simple…

The desperate ground has brought Seeyouatmidnight into the equation – but if either of the big 2 are close to the top of their game, he shouldn’t be good enough to win.

Silviniaco Conti looks to be in gradual decline; whilst the ground will not help Irish Cavalier…

It’s half tempting to take a stab at the French challenger, Vezelay.

It would be a complete shot in the dark – but I do wonder why he has been brought over.

His form looks reasonable – though not top class (which just makes his presence even more baffling !).

That said, it would appear that he can handle the soft and he’s only 7 years old…

He’s a very big price – and will probably tail off – but I still might have a fiver on him, just in case !

Certainly if Seeyouatmidnigth is a 5/1 chance, then I doubt he should be over ten times that price…

3:35 I can only imagine the conditions that this race will be run in.

The final race on the card, I would expect the ground to be in a complete mess.

What you will need is a battle hardened warrior – ideally with a low weight – who likes to front run.
Step forward Saroque.

He is also not badly handicapped, having won on his seasonal debut 12 months ago, off a mark just 2lb higher than he runs off today.

He followed that up with a couple of even better runs: in the Rehearsal chase at Newcastle – and then in the Welsh National, where he looked likely to win, half a mile from home.

In truth, his form throughout last season was quite consistent, so it’s a bit surprising to see his handicap mark was dropped.

In terms of his rivals, then I could give half a chance to most of them – but non particularly stand out.
Straidnahanna is the one I fear most – but I’m not sure he will relish bottom less conditions.
The biggest issue will be, if he tries to take on Saroque, for the lead…

I often talk about ticks in boxes – and simply, Saroque has got one in just about every box.

I’ll be very disappointed if he is beaten…

Ascot

12:55 I suspect this race is more open than the betting suggests…

The market has a strong preference for 4 horses: Singlefarmpayment, Aurilac, Beware the Bear and Potters Corner.

I respect the chance of all 4: particularly Potters Corner, who was an eye catcher last time at Chepstow – but I don’t think that Expedite, Duelling Banjos and Royal Milan, should be dismissed.

The market seems to be favouring the horses with chasing experience – but I’m not convinced that should be the case.
In theory, therefore there could be a bet in the race – with Expedite and Royal Milan the 2 most attractive options.

I did consider such a path – but I’ve resisted, officially speaking.

I guess what I would say, is that I would expect a market correction, as the off approaches.

I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the 7 named, were to win.

Ignoring the odds, I would make Singlefarmpayment the most likely winner – but I don’t see much value at 4/1.

Expedite at 12/1 and Royal Milan at 14/1, are the value options – I just don’t fancy them quite enough to tip them.

2:05 I really don’t want to get involved with this race…

Dodging Bullets and Gods Own are the 2 most likely to win – but the market knows that and they are priced accordingly.

They aren’t bomb proof though: both are tackling a trip further than normal – and neither is completely reliable…

In terms of the opposition, then Kylemore Lough and Royal Regatta would both prefer softer ground.

Eduard is on the comeback trail after 2 years off the track, so should be better for the run.

Third Intention produced a career best last time out at Aintree – and is clearly at the top of his game.

However, he really shouldn’t be able to beat Vibrato Voltat today, on that form – never mind Gods Own.

I could be tempted by Vibrato Voltat – and he is a classic ‘dobber’ for Francis’ thread in the forum – but I couldn’t tip him to win.

And I guess that’s the issue I have with the race - I just don’t think I could tip any of the runners to win it !

My tactic will be to back Vibrato Voltat pre-race – and then lay him off in running, as he canters into the straight looking likely to hack up !

2:40 Lil Rockerfeller is the polar opposite of Vibrato Voltat…

Where I wouldn’t trust the latter a jot: I was half tempted to tip the former today, even though he’s got a mammoth job on today…

He’s got to give weight away to older horses, over a trip short of his best, on ground a touch quicker than ideal.

And yet, I absolutely guarantee he’ll run a huge race – he’s that kind of a horse.
He puts his all in, ever time he goes to the track – and he just keeps on improving…

I’m going to tip him for the World hurdle on the ‘Cheltenham thread’ in the forum – but I’m not going to tip him today…

That’s because, despite all of his positives, I can see things panning out wrongly for him this afternoon.
He probably hasn’t got he pace of Yanworth – or maybe even Court Minstrel or Zarkander – and if this turns into a sprint, he could be found wanting.

And this race could easily turn tactical.

The 3 named won’t lead, which leaves Garde le Victoire – or Lil Rockerfeller himself.

I guess he could steal the race from the front – but I somehow doubt that will happen…

My thought was to maybe put him up EW at 8/1 (1/4 odds, first two) – but I‘ve decided against that and instead I’ve backed him for the World hurdle.

That seemed like the best plan of action…

3:15 Some Buckle was an eye catcher last time out at Aintree.

He was travelling like the winner that day, when he attempted to take the fourth last with him.

He managed to stay on his feet – but that was his race over.

I should be interested in him today based on that run – but I’m not.

I think the main reason, is because he is dropped in trip to the bare 2 miles, and I’m not sure why that is.

Presumably connections now feel that is best trip for him – but I just wonder if he is more likely to make mistakes at the shorter distance.

The other issue I have today, is the opposition – particularly Vanituex.

He could be top class (potential Champion Chase horse) – and taking him on in a handicap would seem like a rash thing to do.

Even without him, it’s a tough enough race to resist a relatively short price.

Cold March is interesting on his return for Venetia: Quite by Chance was very impressive least time out; and Dresden was the first tip I issued this season (so I must have seen something in him then !).

On balance then, a watching race.

I would expect Vaniteux to win  -but I won’t be backing him to do so.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Hayd 1:15 Askamore Darsi 0.25pt win 16/1

BRT Hayd 2:25 Affaire D’Honneur 0.125pt win 12/1

BRT Hayd 2:25 Rathpatrick 0.125pt win 25/1

BRT Hayd 3:35 Saroque 0.5pt win 3/1

Eye Catchers

Hayd 1:15 Askamore Darsi

Hayd 1:50 Ch’tbello

Asc 12:55 Potters Cross

Asc 2:40 Lil Rockerfeller

Asc 3:15 Some Buckle