Daily write-up - Nov 6th

There are 4 NH meetings again this afternoon: at Sandown and Ffos Las in the UK – and Cork and Naas in Ireland.

Sandown should be hosting the best card of the day – but the dry weather has again resulted in small fields.

Worse than that, as was the case yesterday at Wincanton, I could easily see there being further withdrawals during the afternoon.

It is very difficult to bet/tip in such circumstances…

The fields have stood up better at Ffos Las - but the racing is low grade.
Again, a cautious approach needs to be taken.

Over in Ireland, the best race of the day, is the Cork National.

I do have quite a strong fancy for that contest – the issue was with the price…

The final meeting of the day is at Naas – but a bit like Sandown, whilst there are some decent horses on show, betting opportunities are limited.

Despite all this, I suspect a few opportunities will present themselves during the afternoon, for the patient/disciplined...

Here are my thoughts on the day.

Sandown

12:30 There’s an eye catcher running in the very first race of the day, in the shape of Braavos – and he has a pretty good chance as well.

He caught my eye, travelling nicely in to the straight on his seasonal debut in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow.

He probably did too much, too soon that day, and didn’t get home.

However, from a 3lb lower mark today – and with that run under his belt, I would expect him to go very close today.

The main issue is his price – he’s been backed into favouritism and there is very little margin in a quote of 3/1, against some rivals whom it is difficult to get a proper handle on.

Maybe keep an eye on the market and if nothing seems particularly strong against him, then it could be worth getting involved (I would be less concerned about his price – and more concerned about the prices of his rivals).

2:15 I’m not really a fan of Vivaldi Collonges – but it’s hard to get away from him in this race.

On official ratings, he’s at least 5lb superior to all of his rivals – but more than that, he’s the only one guaranteed to stay the 3 mile trip.

He likes to front run –and whilst today is his seasonal debut, I would be surprised if Paul Nicholls hasn’t got him ready to go.

If Sean Bowen has any sense (and generally he does !), he should just set out and aim to run his rivals into the ground…

3:25 It’s a similar story in the veterans chase…

On recent form, Loose Chips stands out as by far the most likely winner.

On his most recent run at Chepstow, he finished a game second to Double Ross, with Rocky Creek, Sainte Are and Court By Surprise, all well beaten.

At the revised weights, non of those 3, should get anywhere near him today.

That means Opening Batsman should be the biggest danger – and that could well be the case.
However, that one is quite inconsistent…

As with Vivaldi Collonges, Loose Chips likes to front run.

He could easily get an uncontested lead in this – and may well be able to run his rivals into submission.

A Vivaldi Collonges/Loose Chips double pays around 5/1 – and that may be worth considering…

Ffos Las

4:15 Very little catches my eye on the Ffos Las card – with the exception of Ashtown in this…

Now, depending on how you look at it, suggesting him can either be viewed as an act of madness - or of genius ! (obviously, it’s only fair to judge before the race !!).

Ashtown himself is a nine year gelding, who has never won a race of any sort - and has only run under rules in 3 maiden hurdles.

He’s not run for over a year – and is trained by a man who trains less than a handful of horses (and has himself, never trained a winner under rules !).
On the plus side, I wouldn’t expect the horse to be found by many systems

In terms of form, however, I think Ashtown has a very good chance today…

The first of his hurdle runs was 2 years ago at Chepstow, on the back of an even longer absence.

He was a 100/1 shot that day – but was still in the lead – and going OK – when he capsized at the second last.

It was almost another 12 months before he next saw a course – and again he was unfancied.

However, once again he ran a really big race, this time finishing fifth, beaten just over 4 lengths in a decent Uttoxeter maiden.

Superficially, his most recent run was his worst. He was beaten 17 lengths in a maiden at Worcester - but when you look at the horses that finished around him, the form can be seen in a different light…

The winner of the race was Flying Light – and he is now rated 144 over hurdles. In second place was the 124 rated chaser, Cloudy Joker. After Hours finished third – and he is rated 117; whilst just behind Ashtown in fifth, was the subsequent Betfair hurdle winner, Agrapart (who’s now rated 150) !
I’m not suggesting that form should be taken completely at face value – but off a mark of just 103 today. Ashtown must have a fair chance…

The reality is that this is a pretty weak race, which will not take much winning.
I think Ashtown is almost guaranteed to run well – the question is, whether he will run well enough to win..?

I don’t know the answer to that one – but I think he is worth a small risk at 16/1…

Cork

3:15 This may be a very competitive looking 16 runner handicap – but there is only one horse I’m interested in backing…

Forever Gold has the form to win a race such as this – and he looks to have been teed up for this particular contest…

His second to Fletchers Flyer at last seasons Punchestown festival, is form good enough to win todays race.

He races off a mark just 3lb higher today – but the claim of his jockey, Chris Timmons, negates that – and gives him another 2lb, for good measure !

Timmons was on board, when Forever Gold made his seasonal debut over hurdles at Gowran, last month.

He ran a fair race that day – but the object of the exercise seemed simply to get him spot on for today.

Hopefully that will have happened – and with trip and ground no issue, I think he just needs a slice of luck, to finish there or thereabouts, today...

Clearly, the Gigginstown battalions are a worry – though maybe not so much as the Willie Mullins trained novice, New Kid in Town. It’s not the normal ‘modus operandi’ of  Mullins, to run a novice in these kind of races, so you have to respect his chances (and maybe save stakes on him).

I was quite keen on Barely Legal last time, so he too has to be of some interest today (with Donagh Myler on board); whilst it could be significant that JP McManus relies solely on Tom Horn…

All this said, I prefer the chance of Forever Gold to all of them – and hopefully he can repay that belief by coming home in front.

Naas

2:55 This is the most interesting betting race on the card at Naas – and I can understand why Apsen Colorado is favourite…

He was a high class bumper horse and was sent off at just 11/2 for the grade 1 bumper at the Punchestown festival in April.

He won on his hurdling debut at Listowel in September – and whist he was little disappointing when only second next time at Galway, it was probably the 2 mile trip that beat him.

He steps up to 2m4f today –and off an opening mark of 126, really should take the beating.

That said, I’m pretty sure that the pre-race market will advise (he’s currently a 3/1 shot).

The Charles Brynes trained Crystal Pearl is the other one to keep a very close eye on in the betting.

He was part of a successful coup earlier in the year – and was backed as if defeat was out of the question that day (which indeed, proved to be the case !).

With a straighter bat, I would expect Automated to run well – and also Misty Lady (though she is likely to find today’s trip, a bit too short).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advise Summary

Tips

BRT Cork 3:15 Forever Gold 0.375pt win 8/1

DT Ffos 4:15 Ashtown 0.25pt win 16/1

Eye Catchers

Sand 12:30 Braavos