Daily write-up - Nov 17th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Market Rasen and Wincanton in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland…

It was interesting to see how much softer the ground was riding yesterday, at both Chepstow and Warwick.

Clearly conditions are changing – and we need to be mindful of that.

Not only will soft ground loving horses start to take over – so will the stables that do better in the winter time (like Venetia !).

Unfortunately, with racecourses spread the length and breath of the country – and different levels of drainage, it’s never quite that simple – but the trend is likely to move towards the mud lovers…

As for today, then it looks like the mud lovers could be in their element at Wincanton, where some serious rain is forecast.

Things shouldn’t be quite so wet at Market Rasen – though forecast ‘showers’ from late morning onwards, create a whole range of ground options…

It still appears to be relatively dry in Ireland – where the big race of the day, the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil chase, is run…

I’ve just issued the one small tip on the day – here is my rationale for that, plus some other thoughts…

Market Rasen

2:05 Shy Khan won this race 12 months ago (when I should have tipped  him !) – and, if the rain stays away, there’s a fair chance he’ll do the same again, this afternoon.

Certainly, he’s not badly handicapped, off a mark just 5lb higher – considering he subsequently went on to run very well at the 3 big spring festivals…

His seasonal debut run at Wetherby, was hugely under whelming – but I’m sure its purpose was just to blow away the cobwebs. He also got 3lb taken off his rating – which was quite generous of the assessor.

Lucinda Russell is gradually finding some form – so with the horse clearly liking the Lincolnshire track (2 runs, 2 wins), it’s not hard to see him running well.

He might even be able of win – though I actually think the race is Oscar Rocks to lose…

On chase form, he is thrown in today, as he runs off a mark 7lb lower than the one he won from over fences at this course, 12 months ago.

He was a fair hurdler in his younger days as well, so there is no reason why he shouldn’t be able to run to a similar level of form over the smaller obstacles.

He’s making his seasonal debut today, so fitness has to be taken on trust. However, it was the same story when he won over fences last year – and his stable could hardly be in better form.

The early market suggests Oscar Rock is ready to do himself justice and if that’s the case, I would expect him to win.

If that’s not the case, then Shy Khan should go very close – provided the ground is riding quick (ish).

2:35 Walking in the Air is favourite for this – and whilst I can understand that, 7/4 looks very short…

He is making his chasing debut today – and whilst his mark looks reasonable, it doesn’t look spectacular.

His price is down to his connections and his potential – and whilst he may well be up to winning, he represents no value and therefore needs to be taken on…

The 2 Northern horses, Palm Grey and Urban Hymn, are possibles.

A case can be argued for both – but so can a case against.

On balance, I decided to look elsewhere…

My 3 against the favourite, are Pinnacle Panda, Spencer Lea and Nightline.

Again, I could pull together a case for each of them – but it is Nightline that I’ve decided to go with.

He’s actually held by Pinnacle Panda on hurdles form from last year, at Doncaster.
The 2 of them were placed behind Fingerontheswtch that day and strictly on the book, Pinnacle Panda should again have the beating of Nightline, on only 2lb worse terms…

However, todays race is over 3 furlong shorter – and 3 furlongs from home in the Doncaster race, Nightline was still in the lead and going well: whereas Pinnacle Panda was near the back and under pressure.

All of Nightlines runs last year were over 3 miles - and he didn’t really get home in any of them.
I therefore like the fact he is dropped in trip today.

I also like the fact he is wearing a hood for the first time – as that suggests connections mean business.
The booking of Richard Johnson supports that statement. Interestingly, Graham Watters is at the track – and riding for Charlie Longsdon – but Longsdon has still opted to put Dickie on Nightline.

That strikes me as significant – particularly as Johnson has a good record when riding for Longsdon…

As a 6 year old, I suspect there is still plenty if improvement in Nightline.

I expect him to be primed to run his race this afternoon – and feel there are enough positives to get involved, at a very fair price…

Pinnacle Panda is also of some interest - but I suspect he might need more of a test (either ground or trip).

Spencer Lea is therefore the other one of major interest.
He won on his seasonal debut last campaign – and I suspect he too will be ready to do himself justice this time.

I doubt he’s badly handicapped - but he’s not easy to get a proper handle on.
If he shows any strength in the market (so backed down to around 12/1), he could well be worth a saver…

3:10 I could have been quite interested in Amiral Collonges in this – if I could have got a price…

He ran a fair race on his seasonal debut at Carlisle, having been backed at big odds.

He is switched to fences today – and with that run under his belt, I would expect him to go well.

Certainly he is handicapped to run a big race, off a mark just 4lb higher than the one he bolted up from at Ascot, 12 months ago.

His trainer, James Evans, also has a good record at Market Rasen – though I’m a bit baffled by the booking of Paul Moloney (who I don’t think has ridden for the stable previously) - I can read that in a couple of ways…!!

I could well have been tempted at 5/1 – but 7/2 strikes me as a touch on the short side…

The reason for that is because this is potentially quite a competitive race…

Certainly the favourite, I Just Know, could be a tough one to pass.

I’m pretty sure he will get an aggressive front running ride from Danny Cook.

Flight Commander has also got a chance - and is in danger of getting to a backable price (if he gets to 8/1 or bigger).

Even the outsider, Emerald Rose, is of some interest, for another stable that has a very good record at Market Rasen…

Wincanton

I’m not overly taken by the Wincanton card – and that’s ignoring the fact that rain could turn it into a bit of a lottery.

2:50 The one horse I am tempted by, is Smoking Jacket…

He won really well at Stratford on his seasonal debut and there must be a chance he can follow up in this, off a 7lb higher mark.

True, it’s a grade higher; a very different track and potentially different ground – but he’s a young, unexposed horse, who appears to be on the way up.
He’s also the only horse that Tom George sends to Wincanton – and the only ride of the day for Adrian Heskin.

He is being opposed in the market by a few ‘darker’ ones – and whilst I can see the argument for the likes of Burtons Well, Red Devil Star, Sirabad and Lettheriverundry- I do wonder if the better path might be the obvious one…

He’s an easily available 9/2 shot now – and could be worth a small risk at that price…

Clonmel

1:35 Gusty Rock was an official eye catcher last time out at Gowran, when appearing to get an injudicious ride from Roger Loughran…

He made a big move on the horse, going wide round the home turn – and then had nothing left, when it came to the battle at the end of the race.

It’s interesting that Ruby takes over in the saddle – and you would hope that the horse won’t have any excuses in terms of jockeyship, today…

Whether he is sufficiently well handicapped to win, is a different matter.

He may be – but he faces a few tough rivals and 7/2 is too tight a price, to be finding out…

I very much doubt Misty Lady will win – but I can see her running a better race than last time, and if she can get to the lead (Coolmill might have a say in that), she could be one for Francis dobbers thread…

2:10 The Clonmel Oil chase is the big race of the day, and I’ll be surprised if the winner comes form outside the top 3 in the betting: Alechi Inois, Outlander and Monksland…

On Official ratings, Alechi Inois is the one to beat – but I would have a slight preference for the other 2.

Outlander beat Monksland by 3 lengths at Leopardstown in February – but Monksland is 7lb better off today.

That would suggest Monksland should come out of top today – and that would be my view as well.

However, I wouldn’t be dogmatic about it - and this is probably a race best watched.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Advice Summary

Tip

DT MR 2:35 Nightline 0.25pt win 14/1

Eye Catchers

Clon 1:35 Gusty Rock