Sunday 13 November 2016

Review of the day

I reckon we could go the whole season without seeing a better example of ‘Sods Law’, than the one we witnessed today…!

As I said in the write-up, I had every intention of tipping Drumlee Lad today. In fact, if I’m honest, he was supposed to be my main tip in the race – with Paddys Field the saver.

However, as I was typing up the tip, his price started to crash.

If I could have issued at that point in time, I maybe would have done – but I had to wait a further half hour and I could see what was happening.

With hindsight, I should maybe still have tipped him at 8:40. He was 12/1 with Paddy Power (for a few moments) – and 10/1 in a couple of other places (for not much longer).
However, I felt it was wrong to tip a horse whose price was in freefall.
I could see either frustration at missing the price – or account closures, if it was secured.
Talk about between a rock and a hard place !

I therefore left it – and by 11:00, he was 7/1 – roughly the price I would have put him in at…

I decided to just go with the saver and keep my fingers crossed –
Oh, when has that approach ever worked ?!?!

Even more ironic, Paddys Field was still in the lead – and not completely beaten, when he tried to take the second last with him.
That presented the race to the strong travelling Drumlee Lad – and whilst I suspect he would have won regardless, you couldn’t be completely sure…

What a way to start the day !

The rest of Sedgefield card went pretty much to script, as well…

In the big race of the day, Apterix proved too sharp for Blakemount.
The only bit I got wrong, was Lord Wishes – who could only finish sixth.

I was also wrong about Tomkevi – but not as wrong as the result suggests...
He ran another very ‘interesting’ race – and is clearly being lined up for something.
The pre-race betting suggested as much: 6/1 this morning, he was 14/1 at the off.

Regardless, he would probably have struggled to contain Theatrebar today (which is maybe why maximum effort to do so, wasn’t made).

Over at Huntingdon, the betting also foretold the run of River Frost – which although promising, was never going to be good enough to win.
He’s another who should stay very much on the radar.

In the following race, Elkstone jumped like a buck – until he fell !
He was coming to the end of his tether at the time – but provided the fall hasn’t left a mark, over a shorter trip, under as similar ride, he will take some beating…

In the big hurdle race, Beltor travelled very strongly – but found nothing when put under pressure.
To be honest, I think he’s one best left alone…

Ballycash fell at the first in the handicap hurdle – but Demographic did much better and finished an honourable runner up behind all the way winner, Midnight Gem.

Finally, Guiding Stars looked far too green to do himself justice in the bumper.
I’m sure he will be a different proposition, next time…

TVB.

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