Daily write-up - Nov 1st

Day 1 of the 2016-17 TVB season.

5 months of thrills and spills stretched out in front of us.

I’m sure it will be a roller-coaster – it always is – but that’s a big part of the attraction.

If this season goes in a similar way to the 4 that have preceded it, I suspect we’ll all be reasonably happy, come the end of March…

And if the pre-season is anything to go by, then I think we can be cautiously optimistic.

Troika Steps was doubtless the high-light for most of those who got involved – but he was nicely backed up by the likes of Buachaill Alainn, Silsol and one or two others…

And they were just my thoughts !

Francis, Chris and Donnie put in some sterling work on the forum, during the pre-season with their ‘dobbers’, ‘snips’ and ‘stable views’ – long may that continue: whilst Liam and Jim both chimed in with a nice winner apiece.

Generally, the forum did its job well – but obviously the more involvement we get from everyone, the greater its value becomes…

Anyway, the pre-season is in the past – the main season is now underway – and it begins with a very nice card, at Exeter.

The Haldon Gold cup is the big race of the day – and I have a fancy for it.

I issued late yesterday afternoon (as it’s a ‘Big Race’) – but I was possibly a little premature in my timing.

I wanted to beat any early tipsters – but I suspect I ended up tipping into a fragile market.

Apologies.

That said, I felt there was plenty of juice in the best price on offer – and I’d still be relatively happy with the 12/1 about Dresden which is on offer this morning.

Hopefully most of you managed to beat that – either yesterday – or when the prices reverted this morning (something which will often happen, with the big races).

Just a final reminder, that I won’t be issuing a ‘review of the day’, later...

Not producing it will enable me to start looking at tomorrows cards, an hour earlier - and it’ll will also mean that I don’t feel as if I’m under time pressure for the entire day.

I’ll provide a few comments on todays racing as part of tomorrows write-up, instead…

So, my thoughts on today:

Exeter

1:50 The Haldon Gold cup – a rare class 1 race, run mid-week, outside of the big festivals.

Looking at the field, I felt happy narrowing it down to 4: Garde le Victoire; Dodging Bullets, Dresden and Ultragold.

Garde le Victoire is the most likely winner – but he is also the favourite – and pretty short at 7/4 (I wasn’t even tempted by the 5/2 available yesterday).

He’s a high class horse – who is probably better than his current rating of 151.

Certainly he showed top class form on his first 2 chase outings last season, when he beat Bristol De Mai and Fox Norton, respectively.

However, you have to be a little concerned by the fact that he fell on his final 2 outings of the season. He does tend to hurdle his fences a little – and if he does that today, he could be in trouble.

Dodging Bullets is another one who is arguably well handicapped – off a mark of 163.

He won the Champion chase 18 months ago – and whilst he disappointed last season, there’s a fair chance he will bounce back this campaign.

Paul Nicholls has said he’s fit for his seasonal debut – but that could mean anything !

What we do know, is that the ground and trip should be fine for him.

I would expect him to run a decent race - but I have never been totally convinced by him – and suspect one or two of his rivals will prove too good.

I’m hoping that Dresden will be one of those…

He was a big improver last autumn, when he ran away with a couple of class 2 chases, at Aintree and Ascot.

He disappointed on his 3 subsequent runs last season – and didn’t show too much on his seasonal debut at Chepstow, 3 weeks ago.
However, as a consequence, he is now back on the mark which he won from at Ascot.

He will have no issues with the ground or the distance – and if Henry Oliver has managed to coax him back to the form he was in 12 months ago, he will take a lot of beating.
If I could have been sure that all 8 runners would go to post, I might have been tempted by EW – but that is never a certainty, so a small win bet seemed the best option.

The final one of interest, is Ultragold.

He has shown good form since being dropped back to 2 miles.

He was well beaten on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham, 10 days ago – but it’s reasonable to expect him to come on for that run.

The main issue with him, is his handicap mark.
He will effectively be running off a mark of 139 – which means he will have to produce a personal best (without obviously appearing to be on a steep upward curve).

He may be capable of that - and at a double figure price is possibly worth a saver – but the main fancy for the race, at the odds available, is Dresden.

2:50 Five go to post for this novice chase – but it effectively looks a 3 horse race.

More than that, the market seems to have the 3 main protagonists priced up about right.
Emerging Market is the most likely winner – and even money seems a fair enough  price.

I would have Barney Dwan as the biggest danger – even though he’s not yet run over fences and may find the ground a bit quick.

Market support for him, would be significant.

If those 2 disappoint, then Southfield Vic will take advantage – but he shouldn’t really be good enough to win, all things being equal (particularly as he has to give weight away).

3:20 I’m most interested in the top 3 in this particular contest: Caulfields Venture, Silver Commander and Gary Charm.

Of the 3, Caulfields Venture is the most solid: he has won on 3 of his 4 course outings – and there is no reason why he shouldn’t run his race today.

If I were a cautious EW tipster, then at 6/1, he has the profile of a ‘bet to nothing’ (I think there’s a very good chance he will at least be placed).

However, I think Silver Commander is the most likely winner of the race.

That said, he’s coming back from nearly 2 years off the track – and he’s favourite.
Philip Hobbs can get them ready after an absence – and the horse is well enough handicapped.
He also travels through his races (or at least, he used to !) – so could be a potential back to lay in-running option.

I just feel that 5/1 is a bit short for a horse with a few question marks over him.

At 7/1 I’d get involved - and he may well reach that price at some point (I wouldn’t be overly concerned if he did drift a little pre-race).

The third one of interest, is Gary Charm.
He made his UK debut at Cheltenham 10 days ago and was still going OK when he fell at the fourth last.

There’s a lot of guess work involved with him as well – but the fact Tom Scudamore has seemingly chosen him in preference to David Pipes other 2 runners in the race, appears significant.
He could be worth a tiny play, if you can get double figures…

4:20 Another race where a fair bit of speculation is required – but I’ll be a little surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top 3 in the market: Baraza, Bonvilston Boy and Amantius…

There has been a lot of support for the first named – and that could well be significant.

He’s impossible to get a handle on – but he’s a half brother to the top class Nacarat, so could just laugh at an opening mark of 99.

If he remains solid in the market to the off, he’s the one to beat.

It’s not a lot easier to get a handle on Bonvilston Boy.

He ran well enough on his return at Uttoxeter – and Dickie taking over in the saddle for the inform yard of Tim Vaughan, so the suggestion is that he’s going to run a big race.

The third one of interest, is Amantius.

He’s been in decent form on the flat recently and if he can translate that to hurdling, he’s well handicapped. He’s been competitive off a mark of 60 on the AW – and you can normally add about 45 on to that, to get an equivalent NH rating. He runs today off a mark of 90, suggesting he could have a stone in hand.

All this said however, I just feel there is too much speculation with too many of the runners, for this race to be a realistic betting proposition.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Exeter 1:50 Dresden 0.25pt win 14/1