Daily write-up - Nov 3rd

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Market Rasen and Musselburgh in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

The lack of recent rain means that there are currently lots of small – and hence uncompetitive - fields.

Obviously, there is nothing we can do about it – we just have to bide our time until the rain comes and the quality of the racing improves.

That said, there are reasonable races on all 4 cards this afternoon – and as a consequence, I’ve managed to find a couple of small tips.

I was delighted to see that me issuing the tips first thing this morning, had virtually no impact on prices.

The price of Harry Hunt actually lengthened slightly on BF, 5 mins after I’d issued.

As a result I would expect everyone on the Daily Tips service to have got the advised prices – and I would also expect them to stand up much better for everyone else.

Clearly it’s early days, but it was a promising start for the mid-week tipping !

Anyway, here’s the rationale behind the tips – and my thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Newbury

1:30 Harry Hunt is the one of interest in this race.

He was an impressive winner at Doncaster, last November  – and followed that up with a good run when second at Musselburgh, on new years day.

The key to both of those runs seemed to be decent ground – and he gets that again today.

He went off the boil after his Musselburgh run – but as a consequence, his handicap mark dropped.

He is running today off the same mark that he ran off at Musselburgh, so he is clearly handicapped to go close.

He should also be fit enough to do himself justice.

After a summer off, he reappeared last month in a flat race at Goodwood and ran a huge race to finish runner up.

He didn’t get going until the very end of that 2 mile trip, so todays 3 miles is likely to be prefect for him.

In short, I can see very few negatives.
He is well suited by trip and ground; is fit – and also well handicapped.

Furthermore, as we now all know (thanks to Francis in the forum !), his trainer Graeme McPherson, has an excellent record with horses running in Class 2-5 races, between October and March – particularly if they are going left handed !

My main issue was how to stake him.
As most of you know, I have a strong preference for win only – but he does look very solid – which is more than can be said for most of his rivals.

It is possible that Patsys Castle or Cucklington, will prove better handicapped than him – but I would be very disappointed if he didn’t at least place.
Each way it is then – though I’m hopeful he can come out on top.

2:00 I got very close to making Generous Ransom the first Top Pick of the season, in this.
Those of you with the service last year, will doubtless recall I was pretty keen on him for last seasons Paddy Power Gold cup.

He wasn’t up to that job – but he gets to race today off a mark 15lb lower – and takes a huge class drop as well.

More than that, however, he has his first run for Philip Hobbs – and I think you can reasonably expect 7 or 8lbs improvement, just for that stable switch (from Nick Gifford).

Consequently, you could be looking at a horse today, who is 20lb well in !

My only really issue with him, is the ground.

He wants a bit of cut – and it doesn’t look like he’s going to get it.

Ofcourse, he may well get away with it (and I suspect he probably will) – but when you are playing at 6/4, you want pretty much everything in your favour.

In truth, he does face some quite interesting rivals.
Minella On Line has his first run for Oliver Sherwood – and is also potentially well handicapped; whilst Cadoudoff, Wade Harper and Sandy Beach are also of some interest.

I very much doubt that any of them have 20lb in hand of their mark, however – so if Generous Ransom is able to produce his best on the ground, I would expect him to come home in front.

3:10 I’m not in the habit of offer an opinion on 2 horse races – and I wouldn’t on this one, if Our Kaempfer weren’t running in it.
He was an ‘eye catcher’ last time out at Chepstow, when he finished runner up in a very hot novice chase.
I would expect him to go one better today - but then again, you would expect most 2/5 shots, to win !

Hopefully today will just be a stepping stone for him, prior to bigger successes later in the season…

3:45 I quite like Astre de la Cour in this.

He won a very competitive amateur riders handicap hurdle at Aintree, on Grand National day, 18 months ago.

He’s not done much since then – but there was a certain amount of promise in his seasonal return at Ffos Las, last month – and he’s now back down to a mark 3lb below the one he won from at Aintree.

Trip and ground will be fine for him – and this looks a winnable race.

One of our number, Stuart, is a part owner of the horse – and provided he has time (I’m guessing he might be quote busy today !), I’m sure he will offer his views on Astres chances, in the forum…

Market Rasen

1:05 Francis mentioned the perennial ‘dobber’, The Kvillaken in the forum.

However, he’s currently a 3/1 shot – so unless he wins, there’s not a lot of scope for ‘dobbing’ with him today ! (the in-running players will also know that he’s a bit of a monkey !).

I agree with Francis, that he’s probably best just watched this afternoon.

Likewise, I will be watching Grey Life.
He has his first run for Laura Morgan - but will be of more interest when switched back to fences…

2:45 This is the feature of the Market Rasen card – and a very interesting contest it is too !

I think that Desert Queen is the most likely winner – but she is quirky (with a capital Q !) – and definitely not one for the faint hearted.

She can be tricky at the start – but provided she consents to race, she is the one to beat.

Kalane is very interesting on her first start for new trainer, Amy Murphy.

She as really impressive on her first run over fences last season – but not much went right after that.

First time could be the best time to catch her – and I would expect her to travel well in the race today (making her a potential back to lay in-running play).

However, whether she will last the 3 mile trip, is a different matter…

The other one of interest, is Run Ructions Run, on her first start for Dr Newland.
On official ratings, she has a bit to find with the main protagonists – but she is pretty straight forward and will stay the trip.
If Dr Newland does manage to eak out a bit of improvement, I could see her running very well.

Musselburgh

3:30 Seefood was an eye catcher last time out, at Cheltenham.

That was in a better race than this – so he must have every chance today off a 4lb lower mark.

It’s also interesting that Daryl Jacobs travels to Musselburgh for just the one ride.

My issue with him, is the combination of track and ground.

Musselburgh is a quick track – and the ground will be riding fast.

Seefood might have the speed for the test - but I’m not convinced it is what he really wants.

Certainly at a best price of 2/1, I can’t bring myself to support him…

Instead, I’ going with the veteran Quito du Tresor.

He will be 13 in a couple of months time – but he’s still been running well enough to suggest terminal decline hasn’t yet set in !

What can’t be denied, is that he has his perfect conditions today: 2m4f on good ground, around Musselburgh.

It also can’t be denied that he is a frighteningly well handicapped horse, off a mark of just 106.

Ofcourse, that has to be put into context, with regard to his age – but there still comes a point, where he will be compelled to win !
I guess that might not be today – though he will get few better chances.

The booking of a  7lb claimer adds to his appeal – as does the presence of a couple of front runners (Prince Khurram and Royal McNab) as they should ensure a truly run race (though that is likely to benefit Seefood as well).
Ultimately, this one comes down to odds and probability – and I reckon that there is a better than 1 in 8 chance of Quito de Tresor winning this particular race.

Thurles

1:20 Nothing much grabs me on the Thurles card, from a betting perspective – but Liam put up Rebel Turn in the forum for this, and I’ve had a look at it.
I think Liam makes some very valid points – and I can certainly see an argument for him.

However, we are both agreed, that the betting is most likely to indicate how Rebel Turn will perform. If he gets backed (he is currently 4/1), then it could well be worth following the money…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Newb 1:30 Harry Hunt 0.25pt EW 6/1

DT Muss 3:30 Quito du Tresor 0.25pt win 6/1

Eye Catchers

Newb 3:10 Our Kaempfer

Muss 3:30 Seefood