Daily write-up - Nov 29th

Hopefully, there will be 2 NH meetings today – at Southwell and Lingfield…

As you may have gathered, my attention yesterday evening was focused on the horses due to run today – rather than the weather !

A sharp overnight frost has put both of today’s meeting in doubt.

There have been a series of morning inspections – but hopefully racing, will go ahead.

Here are my thoughts…

Southwell

12:25 You wont; see many better class 4 handicap chases than this – certainly not at Southwell !

It’s a fascinating race – contested by a number of very interesting animals…

Mercian Prince strikes me as the most likely winner, following his UK debut at Uttoxeter, when he finished second to Tiquer.

If he can build on that, then he will take a lot of beating off the same mark today.

However, he does face a few decent rivals…

Chief amongst them are Ballydague Lady and Salto Chisco – both of whom are last time out winners.

Of the 2, I would prefer the chances of Ballydague Lady, as Salto Chisco steps up in trip today – and that’s not guaranteed to suit…

Mr Grey and Crickel Wood can both be given some sort of a chance – but aside form Mercian Prince, the most interesting other runner in the field, is Unzing…

Those of you with good memories, will recall that I tipped him last year, when he was trained in Ireland, by Sue Bramhall.

He was sold over the summer and now races for Charles Pogson.
He made his debut for him at Uttoxeter a couple of weeks ago and ran a lot better than his final ‘pulled up’ position, suggests - in fact, he looked the one to beat, for a lot of the race…

He’s the outsider of the field today – and a silly price.
If he simply needed the run last time, I could see him going close today.

My inclination would be to back him pre-race (he’s current 40+ on BF) – and lay off in running.
Whether you choose to double your money or have a free bet on him, is up to you – but I do think he will run much better than the odds - and form - imply…

2:00 Another outsider who I could be interested in, is Howbaoutnever.

He won a better race than this at Newbury, on his debut for Roger Teal, last March.

He’s not done so well since - but has been running in better quality races, off a higher handicap mark.

He drops in class today – and is off a mark just 1lb higher than he ran off at Newbury.

He finished last on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham, a couple of weeks back – but he may have needed that run (he was fresh in the early part of the race).

He steps back up in trip today – so he will need to settle a bit better.

However, if he does, I could see him going close.

Lingfield

3:10 This is another really fascinating race (I do love my veterans chases !).

A case of sorts can be made for most of the runners – but I am most interested in 3 of them: Si C’Etait Vrai, Rocky Bender and Café de Paris.

Si C’Etait Vrai is absolutely thrown in, based on his form in novice chases in Ireland, 3 years ago.

The trouble is, he’s shown nothing since he moved to the UK, last season.

Consequently it’s guesswork as to how much ability he retains.
He’s been well backed, in much better races than this, suggesting that someone believes he retains a chunk of ability. If that is the case, he could well hack up in this…

Café de Paris is another one who it’s nearly impossible to get a proper handle on.
Ex French, as recently as May, he contested a grade 1 chase at Auteuil.
He’s since transferred to David Pipe and showed distinct promise on his debut at Chepstow.

If he’s come on for that run, he too could prove a cut above this field (unless Si C’Etait Vrai also produces his ‘A’ game !).

The third one of interest, is Rocky Bender…

He’s slightly more straightforward in so much as you know where you stand with him.

The only question mark is his fitness, as today will be his seasonal debut.

However, he’s run well fresh in the past  - and as Neil’s thread in the forum is demonstrating, you ignore Venetia season debutantes at your peril.

If both Si C’Etait Vrai and Café de Paris, disappoint – then I suspect Rocky Bender will pick up the pieces…

In terms of wagers in the race - then the betting close to the off, may well provide some clues (on the first 2, at least).
In terms of tipping however, it has to be a race that I leave alone…

3:40 This is another interesting race, in which I wouldn’t be rushing to back the favourite, Greyed A, at less than 2/1.

He’s certainly got a chance - but he had quite a tough race, just a week ago – and he faces a number of potentially dangerous rivals, in this…

Top weight, Kazlian, actually finished fourth at the Cheltenham festival, as a juvenile – and has the natural ability to win this off a mark of just 115.

Scooter Boy and Bryden Boy both ran fair races on their seasonal debuts and if they have come on for those runs, could well go close today.

However, the one I like most, is Drumviredy…

He was backed early last night – but is a drifter this morning.

I’m not overly worried by that – even though he is making his seasonal debut today.
He won first time out 12 months ago – and I’m sure Venetia will have him ready to do himself justice today.

At 12/1, he certainly offers more value, than the favourite…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

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