Daily write-up - Nov 26th

There are 5 NH meetings this afternoon: at Newbury, Newcastle, Doncaster and Bangor in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

To be honest, it’s too much.

There simply isn’t sufficient time for me to look at over 30 races.

Needless to say, I’ve focused on Newbury – but so has everyone else – which makes finding nuggets nearly impossible.

I couldn’t believe it when I saw last night, that Pricewise had tipped 3 of the horses, I planned to tip today.

It was the same yesterday, when he put up Ubak and Stiletto.

It gives me a real dilemma, as once he’s tipped them, then any value in the price (certainly the early price), will be gone.

I may have to get back into tipping earlier on a Friday evening – even though it’s not really ideal for anyone (me included !).

The trouble is, I feel a certain obligation to focus on the big meetings and the big races, as that’s where the majority of the interest is – plus, in theory, you have a better chance of getting on.

However, I do think there is a danger that I might be missing easer opportunities at some of the smaller meetings…

In fairness, the eye catchers help with that.

There are 6 of them running this afternoon – but only 3 of them at Newbury.

Here are my views on all of them – plus the rationale behind todays tips – and a few thoughts on some of the days other races…

Newbury

12:55 The mighty Thistelecrack gets his third outing over fences in this – and it will be a big surprise if he’s beaten.
Certainly, the fences at Newbury are very fair – and his jumping technique is generally sound.

Hopefully, there will be no hiccups along the way – and he will remain unbeaten over the bigger obstacles.

1:30 17 go to post for this – but I’d be reasonably happy halving the field.

Anthony and On Tour both have chances – but both are also plenty short enough in the betting.

Mystifiable is the most interesting of the market leaders – but he resumes on quite a high mark and has to prove himself capable of operating at this level.

Of the outsiders, then O Maonlai and Tjongejonge have a better chance than their odds imply.

However, the 2 that interest me most are Generous Ransom and Warriors Tale – I just can’t believe that Pricewise has picked up on them both !

Generous Ransom was an eye catcher last time, on his first run for Philip Hobbs.

He was very well backed that day – but was never really travelling.

It’s impossible to be adamant as to why that was. My feeling was that it might have been the quick ground – and if that was the case then he could struggle again today.

However, Philip Hobbs tries a tongue tie for the first time – and there is also the possibility that he may just have needed the run.
Whatever, I think he is worth one more try – as he is handicapped to win.
Warrior Tale is not as well handicapped – but he’s not as exposed either.

He ran really well at this meeting 12 months ago, when beaten a head by Spookydooky.

He’s disappointed a few times since then and therefore gets to run off a 5lb lower mark today.

He showed very little on his seasonal debut at Carlisle but I would expect him to leave that run behind today.

The ground won’t be an issue for him – so I am splitting stakes and having the greater amount on him (as he is also the bigger price).

2:05 Born Survivor and Onefitzall are the 2 of real interest in this – but the market is wise to them both.

The former ran a nice race on his seasonal debut at Aintree and with that run under his belt, looks the one to beat this afternoon.

Onefitzall is similarly unexposed - and ran a similarly good race on his seasonal debut: chasing up Definitly Red at Carlisle.

It is possible to speculate about both Battle Born and Favorito Bucks – but they have significantly more questions to answer.

Whilst Gibralfaro could improve for a step up in trip – but I he will need to…

At a price, I would have been prepared to take a risk on either Born Survivor or Onefitzall – but at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, margins are a bit too tight to warrant getting invovled.

2:40 It was a bit disappointing to see Tommy Silver so well backed, yesterday evening – but it wasn’t surprising.

He was put in an 8/1 shot – and in a race which doesn’t look particularly deep, that was too big.

He under performed on his seasonal debut at Ffos Las  – but that’s not unusual for a Paul Nicholls runner. I suspect that he will leave that run behind this afternoon.

Certainly, it is interesting that Nicholls considered him good enough to contest last seasons Triumph hurdle.

Admittedly he was the stable third string that day – but he still ran a fair race to finish seventh – splitting his more fancied stable companions, Clan des Obeaux and Frodon.
Both of those have gone over fences this season – and both have shown themselves to be very decent animals.

On his only other run last season, Tommy Silver finished a highly creditable third to Wolf of Windlesham, at Sandown.

He runs off the same mark today – and on that form, he must have every chance…

What I do like about this race, is the fact that it doesn’t look that strong.

A good case can also be made for Ozzie the Oscar – but he is the race favourite: whilst Omessa Has could be anything. However, outside of them, there doesn’t appear too much to be worried about.

Who Dares Wins would probably be better over further; whilst Warren Greatrex is struggling for form, which isn’t a positive for the chances of Ritual of Senses.

In short, 5/1+ about Tommy Silver, seems to be a very fair bet.

3:10 The Hennessy has been turned over by the guys in the forum – and I’m not sure I can add a lot to their discussion…

My feeling is that the race will most likely be won by a second season novice – but they are dominating the market.

My short list of 4 consists of Native River, Vyta Du Roc, Blaklion and Un Temp Pour Tout – so pretty much the first 4 in the betting !

At bigger prices, I could give a chance to Aubusson, Caroles Destrier and Upswing.

Of the last 3 named, then I would probably favour Caroles Destrier – mainly because his stable (Neil Mullholland), is in better form than that of the other 2.

In terms of the most likely winner, then I would suggest Blaklion – and he may not be a bad bet, if you can get a double figure price.

That said, it’s a race which I found easy enough to leave alone, from a tipping perspective…

3:45 I was pretty keen on the chances of Whispering Harry in this – until he got tipped up everywhere else !

Obviously, that won’t stop him from winning – but it will reduce the odds we can secure, and that’s a pretty important aspect of betting !

I actually tipped Whispering Harry in this very race 12 months ago – when he was beaten by Grey Gold, having looked sure to win, jumping the last.

The 2 meet on exactly the same terms today – but as the younger horse, Whispering Harry could still be on the upgrade, whilst Grey Gold is possibly in decline.

Whispering Harrys course form at Newbury is actually very good.

In addition to his second place in this race, he also has a win over hurdles – and a second to Ultragold, in April.

He is weighted to reverse that form with Ultragold – so even though he’s an official eye catcher, from his most recent run at Exeter, I have to pass on him, today.
I am also passing on Parsnip Pete, who is another eye catcher, running in the race.
He ran well at Aintree last time – but that’s a course where he always performs well.

In fairness, today’s decent ground should suit him well – but I just think he might struggle to give a stone to the younger Whispering Harry.

Newcastle

2:55 Sceau Royal has looked a much improved performer on his two runs this season – but I think he might have his work cut out to contain the Gigginstown pair in this contest.

Apples Jade and Petit Mouchir ran in the same race at Down Royal, last time.

Both were making their seasonal debuts – and Apples Jade did best of the duo, in finishing second to Rashaan.

However, that was a disappointing run from her (she was sent off 1/2 fav) and the fact that Brian Cooper has chosen Petit Mouchir this afternoon, seems significant.

In truth, it’s not really worth speculating at the odds on offer – but my feeling would be that Petit Mouchir is the one to beat – and that 3/1 is a fair enough price (if a little short in absolute terms!)

3:30 Virak and Wakanda fought out the finish to this race 12 months ago – and I would expect both to run well again this afternoon.

Wakanda just came out on top last year – but I think Virak might be able to get the better of him today.
However, I think they face a couple of very serious rivals, in the shape of Bristol De Mai and Definitly Red.

Bristol de Mai is a graded horse running in a handicap – and they always need respecting.

He is also a young horse – so could still be improving.

Todays 3 mile trip is a step into the unknown for him – but it will take a good one (or a very well handicapped one) to beat him, if he does stay the trip.
Unfortunately for him he might have bumped into a very well handicapped one (and also a quite good one), in the shape of Defintly Red.

His form over fences last season, stands up to close scrutiny – and he looked an improved performer when winning over hurdles on his seasonal debut at Carlisle.

He gets to run off a mark of just 142 this afternoon – and that could underestimate his ability by around 10lb.
I think it will be tough for Virak to run to a level 10lb higher than his current rating –and whilst Bristol de Mai might be able to do so – it will require a serous performance from him.

Brian Hughes takes the ride on Definitly Red – which considering his current form has to be a big positive.

It’s tempting to make Definitly Red a Top Pick – but he is facing some serious rivals, so he really will need to be on ‘A’ game.

If he is however, I do think he will win.

Bangor

12:00 Truckers Highway was an eye catcher last time out, when running over 2m4f at Bangor, just over 2 weeks ago.
He was ultimately pulled up that day – but led for a good part of the journey, until lack of fitness caught him out.

I would expect him to strip a lot fitter today – and whilst I would maybe prefer to see him running over the same trip, he has enough pace to be effective over 3 furlongs shorter.

In fact, I would expect his jockey to grab the race from the start and try to make every post a winning one.

The betting says that Supreme Asset is the main danger – but he is actually the one I am least concerned about.
I am more concerned about Un Anjou and Colins Brother.
However, the former is returning from over a year on the side lines: whilst the latter is running over a trip short of his best.

Colins Brother is actually handicapped to win the race – though he is liable to make the odd mistake – and I can see his jumping being put under pressure over trip which is a fair bit short of his best.

I can certainly see a scenario where Truckers Highway wins this – though it will require his jockey to control the race from the front and expose frailties in his rivals.

The question in my mind was whether it was worth taking a risk at the odds available – and I decided it was.

Fingers crossed !

1:05 I tipped Askamore Darsi exactly a week ago, when he ran in a handicap chase at Haydock.

That was on the back of an eye catching run at Carlisle – but he caught nobody’s eye, last week !

He was under pressure from an early stage – and only moved out of last place, when he was eventually pulled up !

It was a truly lamentable performance – and I really didn’t except to be tipping him again, a week later.

However, there a few things which are compelling me to get him on side.
Firstly, the fact that he is running just a week later, is interesting in itself.

It suggests that his poor performance last week, was caused by an issue in his head, rather than anything physical.
This is supported by the application of a first time visor. Askamore Darsi has worn cheek pieces in the past – and indeed blinkers – but this is the first time a visor has been used.

However, the thing that attracts me most to him is the race title.

This is a race run in memory of Ginger McCain – and Askamore Darsi is trained by Ginger’s son, Donald.

I’m pretty sure that he will want a runner in the race capable of doing him justice – so he must believe Askamore Darsi capable of bouncing back.

And if he does, then he has to go close.

I fancied him for a stronger race last week – and if he hadn’t run in that, I would be all over him in this – and, no doubt, at a much shorter price !

Doncaster

1:55 Bigpipenotobacee was an eye catcher last time out, when he ran in a decent novice hurdle at the Cheltenham October meeting.

He only finished fourth that day – beaten a fair way – but it was clear that 2 miles over hurdles, was a wholly inappropriate test for him.
He’s a very big horse – who needs fences and more of a trip – and that’s precisely what he gets this afternoon.
And that makes him interesting – very interesting - but unfortunately, he is facing some equally interesting rivals !

In fact, there is barely a runner in the 8 strong field, that you couldn’t construct a case for.

All are either debuting over fences – or have shown significant promise in very limited chasing careers.

This will come down to which one is best suited by todays test…

My feeling is that Doncaster is not the ideal track for Bigpipenotobacee – and I would just be a bit fearful that connections might opt to simply get a run into him and hope the handicapper adjusts his mark downwards (which he would probably do, if the horse ran poorly).

My suggestion would be to keep an eye on the betting - if he is well backed, maybe get involved, but otherwise, take a watching brief.
We can always pick him up again, further down the line…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Newb 1:30 Warriors Tale 0.25pt win 12/1

BRT Newb 1:30 Generous Ransom 0.125pt win 8/1

BRT Newb 2:40 Tommy Silver 0.375pt win 5/1

BRT Newb 3:45 Whispering Harry 0.25pt win 10/1

DT Bang 12:00 Truckers Highway 0.5pt win 7/2

DT Bang 1:05 Askamore Darsi 0.25pt win 9/1

Eye Catchers

Newb 1:30 Generous Ransom

Newb 3:45  Parsnip Pete

Newb 3:45 Ultragold

Bang 12:00 Truckers Highway

Bang 1:05 Askamore Darsi

Donc 1:55 Bigpipenotobacee