Daily write-up - Nov 23rd

There are just 2 NH meetings today: at Wetherby and Hereford.

It’s been a very quite week, so far…

Obviously, that does happen during the winter time – with most of the quality racing run over the weekend.

The weather hasn’t helped either, though…

Maybe I should have got more involved on Monday – but the torrential rain (and consequent uncertainty over the state of the ground) led me to think that it would be better to give it a miss…

The rain seems to have subsided now – but it will have had a big impact on the going, at most courses…

I spent some time last night, on both of today’s meetings – but there is very little to get excited about.

Generally, it’s low grade racing – and I’m pretty sure the market will guide on how horses will run.

Consequently, there are no tips on the day; nor are there any Top Picks – or even any eye catchers..!

I’m sure there will be a bit more action tomorrow – and things will really start picking up on Friday, prior to the weekend and the Hennessy.

For today though, all I can offer is a few horses who are worth keeping an eye on – particularly if they get backed !!

Wetherby

2:25 Doctor Pheonix is the obvious one in this.

Certainly based on his defeat of Walk in the Mill at Lingfield, this time last year, he looks the one to beat.

That win was achieved off a mark of 132 – and he runs off 137 today.

He appeared on a steep upward curve at the time – and won his subsequent race (a conditions event) quite impressively.

However he was beaten in his next 2 races and has a lot more question marks over  him now…

In truth, this isn’t really a strong race, and I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him put in at 2/1 or less – so the fact he can be backed at 5/2, worries me a little…

Non of his rivals particularly stands out.

Half cases can be made for 3 or 4 – but not much more than that.

The one that interests me most, is Back to Bracka.

He won a similar race to todays, over course and distance, 2 yeas ago. Furthermore, he races off exactly the same mark today.

Since that time, he has consistently run off marks a far bit higher – and performed with credit on a few occasions (he’s actually won off a mark 7lb higher).

He’s generally been  running over further, so it’s interesting to see him dropped back to 2 miles today.

In truth, I’m not convinced he’s still a 2 miler – but he is a well handicapped horse and if the ground is very soft, he might get away with it.

Certainly, if there is money for him (say backed down to 5/1 or lower), he is sufficiently well weighted to take this.

3:00 If Royal Plaza is over his exertions of a week ago, then he will almost certainly win this…

He hacked up at Warwick last week and gets to run off exactly the same mark today.
That’s because he won a conditional jockeys race – and wins in such races don’t incur penalties.

The official handicapper has given him a 10lb rise – but that will only come into effect next week.

He is therefore 10lb ‘well in’ today – and with further scope for improvement, he will take a bit of beating.

Like I say, it all comes down to whether he’s recovered from last weeks race – and there is no way of knowing that in advance…

If he hasn’t, then Tap Night, is the one of most interest…

He is potentially spectacularly well handicapped - but that has been the case for quite some time now..!
In fairness, he did manage to win a race last season – and he’s 5lb lower in the handicap today, than he was for that win.

That enables him to drop into a class 4 race for the first time in ages – and the booking of a 10lb claimer to reduce the weight in the saddle is an eye catching move.

He showed little on his recent seasonal debut, but that should have blown away the cobwebs.
Again, if there is support for him (say down to 6/1), then he is well enough handicapped to win (or at least run Royal Plaza close).

Hereford

2:15 This is quite an open looking race…
I feel that the trip will be too short for Copper Birch; whilst the ground will probably be a bit soft for Lord Landen. Ballyegan looks quite limited; and I’m prepared to take on Triggywinkle under a 7lb penalty for her win of last week.

The 2 I’m most interested in, are Northandsouth and Chankillo…

I was expecting the former to be a progressive handicap chaser this season – but it’s not happened.

Certainly he was progressing over hurdles last season – but his 2 runs over the bigger obstacles this time round, have been very disappointing.

There’s no obvious reason why he should improve today (change of distance, introduction of head gear etc.) – I’m just hoping he is a slow learner (it took him a while to get his act together last season).

I feel he has the potential to be better than today’s rivals – and that makes him of interest…

Chankillo doesn’t have as much potential but he does have a dropping handicap mark and first time blinkers.

He’s now only 4lb above his last winning mark – so his time shouldn’t be too far way…

In truth, I don’t feel overly strongly about either one – I just felt that they represented a bit of value in a race where virtually all of the runners have question marks hanging over them…

3:50 I’m intrigued to know why Richard Johnson is riding Glimpse of Gold, in this…

He is one of two 2 Tim Vaughan runners (the other one being Fraser Canyon) – and I would have expect Dickie to be on the more fancied of the duo (but he’s not).

Certainly if he couldn’t get on the more fancied one, I would have expected him to be on board Barton Rose, for Charlie Longsdon – but again, he’s not…

I can’t really find an explanation for all of this, which sits comfortably with me – so I feel that I have to leave all 3 of them alone…

The other 2 in the race that interest me are Super Sam and Little Rocky.

The former returns today after nearly 2 years off the track.

He has novice form, which would give him every chance in this – and there must be a chance that Venetia can get him back in good enough shape to win.

Who knows whether the market will advise, though !

Little Rocky is definitely horse worth keeping an eye on.

He’s been rated as high as 97 on the flat – and he runs off exactly that mark over hurdles today.

Horses of the same ability tend to have a mark 45lb higher over jumps than they do on the flat – so Little Rocky is very well in, if he can recapture his best form !

In truth, I suspect his best days are behind him – but it will still be interesting to see if Matt Sheppard can rekindle the flame. Clearly if he can, then the horse has the latent ability to win a race such as this.

He can be backed at around 20/1 – so might be worth a tiny interest, just in case !

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

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