Daily write-up - Nov 25th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Newbury and Doncaster.

It’s the first day of Newbury’s 2 days Hennessy meeting and the card they’ve put on, wouldn’t look out of place tomorrow – it really is top class stuff.

The biggest issue is the state of the ground: it looks like it could be riding anywhere between good and soft – and that could have a significant impact on the races.

With that doubt, my inclination is to err on the side of caution - today should give us a better idea for tomorrow (accepting that the ground changes slightly, day on day).

I was slightly disappointed by the Doncaster card.

It’s not dreadful – but most of the races are small fields, so finding decent opportunities is tricky.

I therefore made the decision quite early, just to focus on Newbury.

I’ve ended up with tips in 2 races – plus there are 3 eye catchers running.

Here are my thoughts on the big races…

Newbury

1:05 This looks a cracking contest…

I’m happy to take on northern raider, Double W’s. He’s gone up 5lb for winning a lesser race – and will have his work cut out winning this one, off top weight.
I’m also prepared to take on Sirabad, who won’t find it as easy to boss this field, as he did at Wincanton last week.

Remiluc is trickier to take on, as he is potentially well handicapped, running off the same mark as he was successful off over hurdles, a fortnight ago.

However, he is older than ideal for a race like this…

The same is true of Valseur du Granval, who was an eye catcher when winning last time at Chepstow. He will find this a much tougher test.

I could give a chance to Knockgraffon - though this is likely to be his minimum trip; whilst Whats the Scoop clearly has ability – but probably has temperament as well.

Maxanisi could be interesting - at a big price.
But my two against he field are Winner Massagot and Imperial Presence.

I suspect the former is well handicapped – but he does come with risks.

This is his first run since fracturing his pelvis, last season  – and his first over fences.

Instinctively, I feel he could be the best horse in the race – but I just wonder if he will be cherry ripe today.

Imperial Presence should be spot on – and if he is able to track Sirabad, he could get the run of the race.
He’s very inexperienced though – and in truth, there is a certain amount of guesswork, with regard to the quality of his form.

He’s probably the most temping option in the race –and there could be a tiny bit of value in a quote of 8/1.

However, it is such a strong race, I feel a watching brief is the best option…

1:35 This is another cracking novice chase (though this time, not a handicap) – and again, there is an eye catcher running in it.
Our Kaempfer caught the eye on his penultimate run at Chepstow, before getting turned over when favourite for a 2 runner race at Newbury.

I’d be happy to ignore his latest defeat – and he has a definite chance, based on his Chepstow run.

Virgilio is a horse who really impressed me when he won at Newton Abbot, 2 runs ago. However, like Our Kaempfer, he disappointed, last time out at Wincanton.
He could bounce back this afternoon – but you could only be interested in him if he is strong in the betting.

Without betting knowledge the winner is likely to come from the other 3 runners: One Track mind – and the 2 four year olds, Clan des Obeaux and Protek Des Flos.

All 3 have the potential to be top class – and it’s not easy to choose between them.

One Track Mind proved himself over hurdles – so he is probably the least risky.

However, he is making his seasonal debut today – and connections will doubtless have half an eye on bigger prizes, later in the season.

My feeling is the race will probably be won by one of the four year olds.

They get an 8lb allowance from their elders and that could well prove significant.

Protek Des Flos beat Clan Des Obeaux over hurdles last season – but the latter looks every inch a chaser and has the benefit of a recent run.

That was in the same Chepstow race as Our Kaempfer – and he has ground to make up on that one. However, I suspect he needed the run more that day.

That said, Clan Des Obeaux priced at 3/1 and Our Kaempfer at 10/1 – so its not easy to nominate the former on grounds of ‘value’…

2:10 Another intriguing race – this time over hurdles…

I would struggle to see Shades of Midnight or Reve de Sivola winning: and I’d also be a little surprised if Maximiser or The Romford Pele were good enough – but that still leaves 5 for serious consideration…

Ballyoptic probably deserves to be favourite – and he has decent form and scope for improvement – but I’m not sure he deserves to be a 2/1 shot.

UnowhatImeanharry was massively progressive last season – but it remains to be seen whether he can take the next step up.

He’s already 8 – so scope for further improvement is probably limited.

Menorah is 11 – and whilst he is potentially nicely treated by race conditions, soft ground would be an issue for him.

The 2 of most interest are therefore Ubak and Snow Falcon.

Ubak won a very strong handicap hurdle at Aintree, last spring and on a line through Silsol, that form gives him every chance today, with The Romford Pele and Ballyoptic.

His recent season debut, also at Aintree, was a good run and with that under his belt, I think he has a fair chance this afternoon.
Certainly, he represents value in the race, at a double figure price…

It’s a bit harder to get a handle on Snow Falcon.

He’s threatened to be a very good horse, but injuries have held him back.
However, he’s recently put together a series of strong performances, suggesting that whatever was ailing him, is now in the past.

It strikes me as very significant that Noel Meade is prepared to send him over to contest this race – and even with the maximum penalty, he strikes me as the one to beat.

In terms of staking, then I chose to split stakes, with the larger amount on Snow Falcon.
Lets’ hope one of them comes home in front !

2:45 Yet another very strong race – and the third eye catcher of the day !

Splash of Ginge caught the eye at Chepstow on his penultimate appearance - and on the back of that, I tipped him last time at Aintree.

However, he was really disappointing that day – and I’m going to struggle to support him again.
In fairness, there might have been mitigating circumstances as he lost a shoe during the race.

However, he just didn’t show the zest I expected – and I don’t see the removal of the visor today, as a positive sign…

Instead, I’m going to take a chance on Aerlite Supreme.

He ran a really big race on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, where he looked sure to win, until idling on the run in.

He’s been raised a couple of pounds for that effort – but it would have been a fair bit more if he had won.

In truth, it’s not the first time he’s threatened to land a decent prize – and I’m sure that everything will drop into place sooner rather than later.

Cheekpieces are applied for the first time today, suggesting that connections are really going for it – and he receives a lot of weight from most of his rivals.

I expect him to be ridden very patiently – and hopefully pounce on the run in.

Of the others, then you have to respect the chance of favourite, Three Musketeers, who still has scope for improvement. I would also have been tempted by Stiletto, at a price – but he was put in quite short and Pricewise tipping him, removed the last crumbs of value.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Newb 2:10 Snow Falcon 0.25pt win 6/1

BRT Newb 2:10 Ubak 0.125pt win 11/1

BRT Newb 2:45 Aerlite Supreme 0.25pt win 8/1

Eye Catchers

Newb 1:05 Valseur de Granval

Newb 1:35 Our Kaempfer

Newb 2:45 Splash of Ginge