Daily write-up - Nov 13th

There are 3 NH meetings today: Cheltenham and Fontwell in UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

The final day of the Open meeting at Cheltenham.

The going description was changed to ‘soft’ yesterday afternoon – and that’s how it looked to be riding.

There has been no rain since that point, so I suspect it will be riding soft again today.
That’s fine…

I’m assuming it will be similar at Fontwell.

The state of the ground will actually have quite an impact on the big race there (the Southern National). We are hoping that it is on the soft side…

It’s been nice to be able to just issue tips, over the past few days, without worrying about the market.

Obviously it’s helped that there have been some decent races: but I also think it has helped that everybody is playing by the rules and leaving BF alone.

I’ve no doubt that is making it much easier for people to get the best prices (which is ofcourse, very important).

So thanks to everyone, for that. What a harmonious community we are creating !

Here are my thoughts on todays racing…

Cheltenham

12:45 The days racing starts off with a bang, with the winner of the past 2 champion bumpers from the Cheltenham festival, opposing each other.

Bizarrely, they both also made their debut in the same novice hurdle at Perth, at the end of September.

Moon Racer just got the better of things that day – but Ballyandy is weighted to reverse the form this afternoon.

Of the 2, I would slightly favour Ballyandy – but there is unlikely to be much between them.

I was massively impressed by Movewiththetimes, when he won at Fontwell last month.

Clearly, Fontwell and Cheltenham are poles apart – but it wasn’t a bad race for the venue.

I have no idea how the form will stack up against that of the market principals – but in truth, neither does anyone else…

At 9/1, Movewiththetimes might be worth a tiny speculative play…

1:20 Altior was supposed to be running in this race – and his absence has resulted in a below par turn out.

Le Prezien is a very short priced favourite, on the back of a pleasing reappearance behind the very useful Charbel, at Uttoxeter.

It’s decent form but whether it entitles him to be 4/5 today, is debatable…

Some Plan and Three Stars both have talent - and victory for either one wouldn’t completely surprise.

That said, if there is a bet in the race, it is probably Mick Thonic.

He made his debut for Colin Tizzard at the October meting in a 2m4f race won by Shantou Village.

Mick Thonic went from the front and jumped like a buck that day.

It’s interesting that he’s cut back in trip today – and whilst there is a chance that he will just act as a hare for the other runners, there is also a chance that his front running and fluent jumping with pressurise them into mistakes.

He might not be quite up to winning, but at 16/1 – 4/1 to finish first or second – he’s not a bad bet…

1:55 This is a near impossible race to work out with any confidence – so how anyone can back one of the market leaders, is beyond me…

That’s not to say that one of them won’t win the race – just that they all have significant question marks hanging over them…

Fox Norton is the market leader – on the back of a hugely impressive win over this course last time out.
However, that was in a handicap off a mark of 146. Today he has to give weight to a horse rated 168. If he’s truly improved almost 30lb, and is able to show it on ground slower than ideal, I’ll be surprised…

On official ratings, the best horse in the race is Special Tiara.

I would make him the most likely winner – however, he would prefer quick ground and going right handed, He also tends to need his first run of the season.

At 3/1, I can resist…

I can resist Simonsig even more easily…

In fairness, he had the natural ability to walk this – but his fragility is his Achilles heel.

It’s nearly 4 years since he was at his peak. A price of 7/2 makes limited appeal…

Top Gamble is not a bad price at 7/1. He will love the soft ground – and remains progressive.
However he has to give weight to all of his rivals – and is likely to come on for the run…

Simply Ned has a theoretical chance of winning – and a realistic chance of placing, but he does have limitations.

So too does Savello: whilst Just Cameron will likely improve for the run.
Which leaves us with Module…

He’s not run for nearly 2 years – but he is trained by Tom George (who has been in unbelievable form).
From what I’ve read, it was always the plan to give Module a year off – so I’m actually not worried about that.

The horse was good enough to place in a Champion chase (same as Special Tiara); and will love the soft ground.

He also has an unbelievable record fresh – and a very good record at Cheltenham.

I suspect he will be held up, out the back, whilst the like of Special Tiara and Fox Norton go from the front.
That should make him a realistic in-running play.
My hope is that, provided he is right, he will pick them off up the straight.

If he’s at him best, then he’s no 25/1 chance – that’s for sure !

2:30 There are no prizes for predicting how this race will unfold…

Sternrubin will go from the front and try to make every post a winning one.

I actually think there’s a chance he will be successful – if Dickie gets his fractions right and the others allow him too much rope.
However, Cheltenham is never going to be his course (because of the climb from the final hurdle).

I could see him leading over the last – but I suspect he will get nailed close home…

So much of this race is going to come down to how the jockeys choose to ride their races.

Barry Geraghty and Harry Cobden, on Winter Escape and Modus respectively, won’t want to be playing their hands too late.

If they get their timings right, either horse could win - but if they get them wrong, they could end up providing a tow for a really late finisher…

Step up Leoncavallo….

My expectation is that he will sit last – and therefore be delivered last.

He will follow through Winter Escape and Modus – and hopefully nail them on the line (after they have nailed Sternrubin !).

Ofcourse, I could be completely wrong – but I always like to have a picture of how a race will work out, in my head

As for the others, Cyrius Moriviere will run well (he will chase Sternrubin); whilst Song Light and John Constable are both capable of outrunning dismissive odds.

3:05 I’ve been so looking forward to Altesse de Guye running…

She is one of my real favourites – and todays conditions will be perfect for her.

She ran really well last time out on unsuitable ground. It was also her seasonal debut - so I’m sure she will come on for the run.

The handicappers was generous too – he dropped her 1lb to a mark, just 2lb higher than the one she beat Anteros from in the spring (remember him ?!).

She has ticks in every box - she simply has to run a massive race.

The trouble is, the opposition…

This is an unfathomable race.

18 runners and half of them completely unexposed.

She could easily be facing a horse with a stone in hand of its mark (and she doesn’t have a stone in hand of hers).

I thought long and hard about how best to handle the race from a tipping perspective.

There are 3 horses that I really fear: Ballyarthur, Behind Time and Chic Theatre.

They are all impossible to get a handle on.

The first 2 head the market, so we just have to be prepared to shrug our shoulders if one of them wins.

There was some value in Chic Theatre, so I think he’s worth having on side as a saver.

The main bet is Altesse de Guye however.

I could have staked her more aggressively - but I can just see her getting pipped.

She’s very game though – so maybe that won’t happen.

I’ll be gutted if she doesn’t make the first 4 - but I’m just not sure how we can really profit from her.

Perhaps you guys have some bright ideas..!

3:40 I’ll always have very fond memories of this race.

17 years ago, I walked into the paddock at Cheltenham and was transfixed by magnificent looking black horse who was just about to make his debut.

I didn’t know his name – but I knew I had to back him.

I’d never felt that way about a horse before – and I’ve never felt that way since.

He won as well – and at 16/1 !

His name – Best Mate…

I doubt there will be any Best Mates running in todays race – though I’m sure it will contain its share of future winners…

As for todays race: Then the Rebecca Curtis Debutante , La Cavsa Nostra is the one that appeals most (in the absence of Sumkindofking).

Whilst at a price, Gustave Mahler, with Dickie on board, looks quite interesting.
It’s all guesswork tho…

 

Fontwell

1:00 The high-light of the Fontwell card is the Southern National – and it looks a very open race…

As I said previously, I think the state of the ground will lave a big impact on the race – and I’m assuming it will be on the soft side…

Jenny Surprise was an eye catcher last time out – when she finished behind Buachail Alain during the TVB pre-season.

I was very tempted by her today – but the decent prices were all hoovered up last night (by ‘eye catcher’ followers ?!?!) – and 8/1 this morning feels about right…

I wouldn’t put anyone off saving on her – but for the main bet, I have opted for Morney Wing.

In truth, this was about value (so you need to make sure you get a fair price).

He is very closely matched with Jennys Surprise on Sandown form last season – and he was still a general 14/1 shot this morning.

He ran well enough on his seasonal debut at Carlisle – and I would expect that run to have brought him on.
He looks a bit more straightforward than Jennys Surprise – and he’s also got a more experienced jockey on board.

In truth, I don’t think there is a lot between the pair – so to an extent, you pay your money and make your choice.

Not that this is just a 2 horse race – far from it !

That said, most of the horses I think have a chance, have now edged their way to the front of the market.

At a price, I could see Pete the Feat running well – but probably not winning; whilst I will be keeping a close eye on our old friend Woodford County – though again, more with a view to the future.

Whatever, I expect this to be a very informative race, with regard to the rest of the season…

Navan

1:45 This is the first of a couple of fascinating races at Navan.

I’ve no idea what will win either of them – but I still feel compelled to preview them !

The strange thing is, that in both races, there are reasons for opposing virtually all of the runners.

I therefore suspect that that market will be the best guide (if you do want to play in them).

Without the knowledge of market movements, I would take a risk on Snow Falcon in this.
He has to give weight to all of his rivals (which makes him vulnerable) – but he has race fitness (from the flat) and is a class horse.
Gordon Elliot saddles 5 of the 8 runners – but the early money seems to be for the Willie Mullins trained Shaneshill (who is the best horse in the race, on official ratings).
Taglietelle could also be interesting, at a very big price – though he’s not a horse to be having the mortgage on !!

2:55 The really weird thing about this race, is that it is run over 2 miles – but there is barely a 2 mile horse running in it !

Favourite, Ballycasey, is a 3 mile horse (2m4f minimum); whilst Cause of Causes and Gilgamboa are both Grand National types !

In truth, there aren’t many high class 2 mile chasers in Ireland – so maybe it’s not overly surprising…

The Gordon Elliott/Gigginstown pair, Tell us More and The Game Changer, are 2 milers.

They met last time out at Naas and Tell us More came out of top.

The Game Changer is 6lb better off today for 4 lengths – and is more than twice the price.

He might be worth a tiny risk…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Chel 1:55 Module 0.25pt win 25/1

BRT Chel 2:30 Leoncavallo 0.25pt win 11/1

BRT Chel 3:05 Altesse de Guye 0.25pt win, 0.125pt place 12/1

BRT Chel 3:05 Chic Theatre 0.125pt win 14/1

DT Font 1:00 Morney Wing 0.25pt win 16/1

Eye Catchers

Chel 2:30 Leoncavallo

Chel 3:05 Altesse De Guye

Font 1:00 Jennys Surprise