Daily write-up - Nov 11th

There are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham and Newcastle.

Day 1 of the Cheltenham Open meeting.

Following significant mid week rain, the ground for the first day is officially described as, Good – Good to Soft in places.
Sounds perfect.

I know there was some frustration yesterday, when I issued the tip on Astracad early, and not everyone could get the 6/1…

There was also frustration on Tuesday morning, when I didn’t issue the tip on Drumlee Lad, because it’s price was in free-fall.

Basically, in these situations, I’m in an impossible position.

If I fancy the same horse as other people, there is no ‘right’ way for me to act.

Tipping early clearly causes issues – but if I don’t tip early, then the price will still reduce to the point where the value has gone.
That means, I can’t tip the horse – and winners will be missed (at least for the ‘official’ P&L).

I guess I could switch to another horse: or skip the race – but I have to be a bit careful about tipping horses that I don’t fancy too much: and the number of races I can realistically tip in, is quite small…

Both of the races in question, were competitive heats – and plenty of other horses were fancied (and backed).

Consequently the prices of both Drumlee Lad and Astracad both drifted on BF to acceptable points (Astracad was also as big as 7/1 at 8:30 this morning, with a few of the bookmakers)

Officially, that’s no good to me – but it should be a situation that you can take advantage of.

I guess what I’m saying is that if you plan to back the tips, then you need to be patient and disciplined.

If you are able to get advised prices (or close to), then fine.

But I really wouldn’t recommend chasing prices, not long after I’ve issued a tip.

You’ll invariably end up getting the worst of them – and feeling very frustrated.

If you can’t get a price, I would suggest you just wait and see how things develop.

In a lot of the cases, the price you were after will eventually appear.

Worse case, you can always back the horse at BSP – which at least won’t cause any account closures !!

Anyway, I’ll doubtless write more on this subject, in the weeks to come – but for now, I need to move on to the rationale for the tips – plus my thoughts on the other races at Cheltenham…

Cheltenham

12:55 When I first looked at this race, I was struck by how many horses I didn’t think were up to winning it…

Shuil Royale is running off a career high mark, at 11 – and running over too short a trip.

Jonjo remains bang out of form – and Eastlake also looks too high in the handicap.

Dunraven Storm struggles to jump – and isn’t well enough handicapped to overcome that.

Venetia has barely had a runner all season – and Bennys Mist is almost certainly being teed up for Aintree.

Notarfbad doesn’t look well handicapped – and is not really a Cheltenham horse.

Danimix wants further; and could well be in decline,

Whilst Cody Wyoming probably just isn’t good enough…

That left 3.

Realt Mor, Ericht and Astracad.

I would expect Ericht to run his race – but he’s not particularly well handicapped.

He is probably a fair EW play, at around 6/1.

Realt Mor is a tricky one to get a handle on. A grade 1 winner as a novice – he could be well handicapped off a mark of 140.

He’s also in good form having won well last Friday, at Down Royal.

If he had been missed by the market, I would have been interested. However he was favourite, so I wasn’t !
I wouldn’t be surprised if he did drift a little – and in that case, he could be worth a saver.

However, for the main bet, I want to be with Astracad.

Nigel Twiston Davies loves a winner at his local track – and I suspect Astracad will be primed to get the meeting off to with a bang !
He actually won on his seasonal debut 12months ago at Chepstow, when getting the better of Third Intention.
That was very good performance – and Astracad runs off a mark 1lb lower, today.

That’s because he disappointed on his subsequent runs – but I’m prepared to back him to bounce back to form today.

The trip and ground will be fine for him – and he’s run well at Cheltenham in the past.

It’s also his first venture in to a veterans race – so he should find the opposition weaker than he is used to facing.
3lb claimer Jamie Bargary is the icing on the cake – and I’ll be a disappointed if he doesn’t go very close.

1:30 This doesn’t look an overly strong race, for the grade…

The original market strength behind Sizing Codelco made me feel that he was the one to be with – but that has dried up a bit…

Certainly he has more scope than most of his rivals – and Colin Tizzard has a very strong string this season.

However, I would want to see him supported in the market, up to the off…

The trouble is, if he’s not the one, then it’s difficult to know which one is.

I was half tempted by our old friend, Johhny Og – as he still appears on an upward curve (unlike most of the field). However, he will face competition for the lead (from Next Sensation and De Faoithesdream): is arguably running over too short a trip – and hasn’t really struck me as a Cheltenham horse.

In short, just a few too many negatives to get involved.

That said, I can see negatives about every runner – which is why it’s a tough race to call.

If forced to pick, I’d opt for the potential of Sizing Codelco – but it wouldn’t be with a huge amount of confidence.

2:05 This is a ridiculously strong novice chase, for the time of year…

Barters Hill heads the market – and whilst he is clearly a horse of enormous ability, I feel he might be vulnerable today…

He’s making his chasing debut – so there has to be a slight worry over his jumping.

That is compounded by the fact he’s running over his minimum trip – so it is likely that he will have to go a stride faster than ideal.

The combination, strike me as a potential accident waiting to happen…

If he does get round OK – and copes with the relatively quick ground – he is probably the best horse in the race, at the weights. But I do think there are too many ‘ifs’ to be taking a short price…

In terms of his opponents, then most of them can be given a chance of sorts…

Rock the Kasbah was impressive on his chasing debut at Chepstow – but he will have his work cut out defying a maximum penalty.
Flying Angel was a big disappointment in the Chepstow race – but he had previously looked very good at Perth and on that form, would have a chance.

The same is true of Itsafreebee, who was a high class novice hurdler last season – and could be the same over fences, this time round.

O O Seven could also go well, off bottom weight - provided he’s tuned up for his seasonal debut – and his jumping is sound.

It’s too tricky a race to get heavily involved in – but I would suggest Itsafreebee as the most likely winner – though there is limited value in a price of 5/1…

2:40 Baden is favourite for this – but I think that’s because of the lack of a standout contender.

He has decent form from last season and receives weight from most of his main rivals. It would appear, that is enough for him to head the market…

Next in the betting are West Approach and Wholestone.
These 2 met at the Cheltenham October meeting, over half a mile further and Wholestone came out on top.

However, he had the advantage of race fitness that day – and also received 3lb from his rival.

They run off level weights today – and I prefer the chances of West Approach.
He travelled very strongly last time, suggesting he would be well suited by todays drop in trip.

He also has form from last season, with Unowhatimeanharry, which suggests he’s a pretty talented horse.

I think he sets the benchmark for the race.

It’s not easy to get a proper handle on most of the others, and it’s quite feasible that at least one of them, will show significant improvement today.

However, if that’s not the case, then I would expect West Approach to win.

I did consider tipping him – but 5/1 feels about the right price, considering all of the unknowns in the race.

3:15 As I said in the forum last night, the presence of Tudor City in this, makes it a no play race…

He comes from the stable of Tony Martin - and is likely to either hack up or get pulled up !

There was a lot of early money for him last night, when the race was first priced up – but he is now on the drift…

In truth, all the early market moves are irrelevant – his fate will be told by the market, close to the off..

Based on his last hurdle run, at Listowel – he has no chance: however, based on his most recent run on the flat, he has a very good chance indeed…

I think the good ground should suit him – and I like the booking of Davy Russell (in Rubys absence).
He’s an impossible horse to price up – but if you got some of the 6/1+ on offer yesterday evening, I suspect you have a fair bet…

There’s a lot of guesswork with most of his rivals – but one I will be keeping an eye on, is Washed Ashore.

He was very weak in the betting on his handicap debut at the October meeting – and duly finished unplaced.
However, he drops half a mile in trip today – and has been dropped 5lb in the handicap.
Connections probably won’t deem it enough – and I can see him having another low key run today.
However, he has ability (he travelled very nicely for a lot of the race) – and he will come good at some point this season (and will doubtless be backed to do so !).

3:50 I’m pretty keen on Top Wood in this…

He caught my eye last time out, when running quite well over a wholly inadequate 2 mile trip.

I made him an official eye catcher on the back of that – and said to look out for him when stepped up to 3 miles.

Well, he’s stepped up to 3 miles - and provided he jumps round, I think he will take the beating.

In truth, his jumping is a worry. He fell twice in big races last season, when having every chance of wining.

The first of those was in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham festival, when he seemed to be going as well as anything. He then did the same in the Scottish Grand national, when still in with a chance.

However, the way he was travelling in both of those races, prior to his departure, showed that he’s well enough handicapped to take a race such as this.

He’s now on a 2lb lower mark than he was at last seasons festival – and an 8lb lower mark than in the Scottish national.

In fact, he’s now only 3lb higher than when dotting up in a 3 mile race at Ludlow.

Simply, if he jumps round, I’ll be disappointed if he can’t win.

In terms of his opponents, then Silvergrove heads the market – but I’m pretty sure Top Wood would have beaten him at last seasons festival – and he’s 3lb better off today.

Troika Steps did a few of us a massive turn in the ‘TVB pre-season’ – and his bold jumping, front running, should see him go well again today.

However, a 9lb ride in his handicap mark may just prove to be too much.

The other one I’ll be keeping a particular eye on, is Godsmejudge.

He is now frighteningly well handicapped – and if he bounced back to form, he would likely win this.
I don’t expect him to be spot on today – but if he runs with any promise, he is most definitely one to be interested in, next time…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Chel 12:55 Astracad 0.5pt win 6/1

BRT Chel 3:50 Top Wood 0.375pt win 10/1

Eye Catchers

Chel 3:50 Top Wood