There are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Leicester in
the UK – and Navan in Ireland.
There was a third meeting scheduled for Carlisle - but it
has been abandoned, due to a frozen track (shame the same thing didn’t happen to
Bangor, yesterday !)
Quite bizarrely, the going on the chase course at
Leicester, is described as ‘firm’.
I
live relatively close to the course and I’ve no idea how that can be. Certainly,
the going in my back garden is anything but firm !
Maybe not too surprisingly, that has resulted in a very
poor turn out for the big race on the card, the Veterans chase.
Just
3 will go to post – and whilst all 3 can be given a chance of some kind, it’s
not a betting race.
In
truth, non of the races on the card encourage financial involvement – though I
may have a small interest on Little Bruce in the last, as he caught my eye last
time at Carlisle.
He’s
a very big price today – and maybe rightly so – but I’ll kick myself if he wins
and I’ve left him alone completely…
Other than that, all of the attention today is on Navan –
and primarily on the Troytown chase.
Here
are my thoughts on that contest – and a couple of the others on the
card…
Navan
1:45 This race sees the fencing debut of the
potentially high class, Min.
He
was a short priced favourite for the supreme novice hurdle at last seasons
Cheltenham festival – but came off second best to Altior.
Already, is appears that the 2 of them are focused on a
rematch, in this seasons Arkle.
Altior made an impressive chasing debut at Kempton, last
Monday – and I expect Min to do the same today.
In
fairness, it shouldn’t be a cakewalk for Min today, as he faces 16
opponents.
Altior on the other hand, faced just the 1 !
However, barring accidents, I would expect the outcome to
be exactly the same – and Min should take this comfortably.
2:20 The Troytown chase is one of the races which
is becoming inextricably linked with TVB…
It
all began with the 2013 running…
In
the previous season, I had followed Cootamundra over the edge of a cliff –
tipping him 5 times, without any success.
I
felt that I had to let go, the following season – and he duly won this race on
his second outing, at odds of 25/1 (his BSP was around 70, if I remember
correctly !).
In
2014, I intended to tip Balbriggan – but Pricewise got there first and 14/1 the
evening before became 4/1 at the off.
He duly hacked up…
He duly hacked up…
Last
season however, things changed.
I
tipped Riverside City at 14/1 – and he managed to come home in front.
This
season, I’m hoping that Mad Brian will be the horse who completes the circle of
‘luck’…
Rather bizarrely, he featured in the 2013 running of the
race.
At the time, he was a raw novice and did remarkably well to finish second to Cootamundra, on only his third outing over fences.
At the time, he was a raw novice and did remarkably well to finish second to Cootamundra, on only his third outing over fences.
He
ran off a mark of 135 that day, which was adjusted up to 141, following the
run.
The suggestion at the time, was that Mad Brian was probably a 150s horse in the making – but unfortunately, injury intervened.
The suggestion at the time, was that Mad Brian was probably a 150s horse in the making – but unfortunately, injury intervened.
Following a run on the Grade 1 Topaz chase at
Leopardstown, he was set to win at Navan, when he fell at the final
fence.
Presumably he injured himself that day – but whatever the
reason, he didn’t run again for 2 full years.
In
fact his next appearance, was as recently as this January – when he ran in a
handicap hurdle at Naas.
Not
surprisingly, it has taken him a little time to refind his form – but unless my
eyes deceived me, he is on the verge of doing just that…
He
most recent run was again over hurdles, at Navan, a fortnight ago.
He
raced prominently that day and travelled really strongly throughout the
race.
I
did briefly think he might even win – but ultimately, he lacked a change of
gear, when the pace of the race quickened round the home turn.
However, he stayed on stoutly and was only beaten 8
lengths at the line.
The
moment that race finished, I knew that I wanted to be with him for the Troytown
– and I also knew that the market would ignore him.
Ofcourse, non of this means he will actually win today –
though, it does mean that at 40/1, he’s a very good bet.
I
won’t attempt to list the dangers , because the race is full of them.
All I hope, is that Mad Brian gets a decent run – and is at least able to show whether the fire still burns.
If it does, then off a mark of just 130 this afternoon, I can see him going very close.
All I hope, is that Mad Brian gets a decent run – and is at least able to show whether the fire still burns.
If it does, then off a mark of just 130 this afternoon, I can see him going very close.
2:50 This is a very trappy looking contest - and Jett is the one who appeals
most.
He
is a half brother to a host of jumping stars, including Jezki, Jenari, Jetson
and Jered – and he seems to have inherited a fair amount of the family
ability.
He’s
only run 4 times over hurdles and has been steadily progressive.
He
doesn’t looked particularly well handicapped off a mark of 132 – but I suspect
he will prove a fair bit better than that, in the fullness of time.
The
question is really, whether he is up to winning a race like this,
today…
The
booking of Davy Russell certainly catches the eye (he has a good record, riding
for Jessie Harrington); thought the fact
that Jessie’s stable jockey, Robbie Power, rides Oscar Sam, confuses things,
slightly.
In
truth, cases – or half cases - can be made for quite a number of his 16 rivals,
so it’s not a race you could be confident about.
Mydor is the other one that particularly catches the eye
– whilst I could see Inis Meain outrunning dismissive odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
BRT
Nav 2:20 Mad Brian 0.25pt win, 0.125pt place 40/1
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