Daily write-up - Nov 18th

There are 3 NH meetings today at Ascot, Haydock and Ffos Las - and what interesting cards they all are…

A mix of handicap and conditions events – with some very decent horses running – particularly for a Friday.

I could have spent a fair while on each of the meetings – but time is always the enemy.

I’ve therefore had to limit myself to a couple of the races on each card.

I’ve ended up with one official tip – plus the first Top Pick of the season.

For those new to the service, Top Picks are horses who I think will win – regardless of the price !

Generally, they are horses who I feel have been over-backed early – so they are likely to drift a little (though that’s not always the case).

If you are going to follow the Top Picks, I suggest you do so to a level stake.
I record their P&L to BSP – and they have been profitable over the past few seasons.
Therefore, if you can beat BSP, you should do OK with them.

Fingers crossed !

Here are my thoughts on some very interesting races…

Ascot

1:35 Brother Tedd was an eye catcher on his penultimate outing, at Newton Abbot.

He finished second that day – and I expected him to improve for that run.
However, that didn’t happen and he was disappointing next time, at Cheltenham.

He’ll need to leave that run being in order to have any chance today – and even if he does, I doubt he’ll be able to get the better of Different Gravey.

He’s yet to see a fence in public, but is a massive horse, with massive potential.

Assuming he gets round without mishap, it will take a very good one to beat him this afternoon – and I doubt Brother Tedd is that good…

2:45 There is another eye catcher running in this race, in the shape of Rothman.

He caught the eye last time, when finishing second at Fontwell, behind the much improved Fergal Mael Duin.

In an average race, I would be pretty keen on him – but this looks a very hot contest.

In truth, I was sorely tempted to tip Fox Appeal.

He’s a horse who has been on the radar for quite some time – and he gets his perfect conditions today.

2m5f;  Ascot and softish ground. He could also have the race run to suit him, as there are plenty of potential front runners.

All things being equal, it’s hard to see how he won’t run a very big race – the issue is the price – and the opposition !

I thought 4/1 was tight enough last night, but you‘ll struggle to beat 3/1 now.
The problem is, he is taking on some very interesting sorts - even excluding Rothman.

The Clock Learey is possibly the most interesting of them all – and whilst it would take a leap of faith to back him on the strength of his runs last season; if you wind the clock back a further 12 months, you see a spectacularly well handicapped horse, running for a stable who appear to be coming into some serious form.

Present Man is the other one the market likes - and whilst I’m not so keen on him, I acknowledge, that he has got a chance.
So too does Cadoudoff; whilst I couldn’t completely discount either Go Conquest or Wings Attract.

In short, it is a very competitive race…

If the price was right (and more runners might have helped with that), I would undoubtedly have taken a chance on Fox Appeal.

However, he comes with risks and 3/1 is plenty short enough, in those circumstances.
As for Rothman, he’s likes to front run, so could find himself in a pace duel.

If things don’t work out for him, there will doubtless be other days…

3:20 In a race where plenty can be eliminated, Minella Daddy stands out.

He has only run twice over fences – in small field novice chases – but his form, both in those contests and last season over hurdles, make him very much the one to beat.

Unfortunately, the betting has cottoned on to him big time – and he’s another one who now looks plenty short enough at 10/3.

Particularly as there is a worry about how his jumping will stand up in a big field.

That said, he has so much more potential than the rest of the field – I just find it impossible to look elsewhere.

Alternatif is second choice in the market – but he is beatable: I’d be more fearful of Lamb or Cod – but he’s returning from a near 2 year absence.

I could give half chances to Blameitonmyroots, Mustmeetalady and St Dominick – but beyond those, I am struggling to put a case together…

Backing an inexperienced novice in a relatively big field handicap at around 3/1, is not something I thought I would ever do – but I just can’t oppose him.

Rather than tip him, I’ve decide to make him the first Top Pick of the season – and hope others cool a little on him, near the off…

Ffos Las

2:20 This is a very tricky race to call and I was hoping that I might be able to alert you to Moorlands Mist, as a bit of value at 20/1 (like Emerald Rose, yesterday).
However, he’s been backed this morning – and I don’t see any margin in a current 8/1 quote…

In fact, at almost the same price, I would be more inclined to take a risk on Zephyros Bleu.

He showed some potential over hurdles last season – and could easily make a better chaser this campaign.

It’s also interesting that Gavin Sheehan has gone to deepest Wales, for just the one ride…

In truth, it’s nearly impossible to get a handle on the opposition, so there has to be a fair amount of guess work.

The market is likely to help, near the off – but without that knowledge, I’d opt for Zephyros Bleu at a general 7/1.

2:55 I feel a little guilty about opposing Awaywiththegreys and Sirop de Menthe in this, as both are long term service favourites.

However, I know both horses well and suspect they are being lined up for other days.

My angle into the race, was a desire to oppose first and second favourites: Tanit River and Mango Cap.
Neither have proved themselves at Ffos Las – and it does tend to be a specialists course.

On the other hand, both Red Devil Lads and Driftwood Haze have proven themselves well suited to the demands of the course.
Driftwod Haze has already won twice at the track; whilst Red Devil Lads can even go one better than that…

To be fair, I can’t see much wrong with the claims of Driftwood Haze – and he is certainly worth a saver – but I just prefer the chances of Red Devils Lads.

Most of his runs over the past couple of seasons, have been over fences – though he did switch back to hurdles at the back end of last season.

He showed little then – but the stable of Rebecca Curtis is in much better form now, than it was at that time.

Basaed on his chase form, then Red Devil Lads is undoubtedly handicapped to win this.

He has won off a mark 7lb higher than he races off today – and ran a gallant race to finish second on his seasonal debut 12 months ago, off a mark 11lb higher than today.

He’ll have no issue with the conditions – and whilst todays race is probably over the  minimum distance for him, I fully expect Jonathon Moore to make it a real stamina test.

And in truth, that the thing which persuaded me to side with him this afternoon.

I expect Moore to go out and try to grind his rivals into submission.

I am a little fearful of Driftwood Haze – but I am optimistic that he will have the measure of his other opponents.
Time will tell, I guess…

Haydock

1:25 There may only be 4 runners, but this is a cracking little novice chase, which will be well worth watching, with an eye to the future.

In terms of today, then the weights are skewed massively in favour of Cloudy Dream – and he will therefore take a lot of beating.

If there is to be a surprise, then Pain au Chocloat is by far the mostly likely one to provide it.

That said, Kings Odyssey is the horse I will be watching most closely, as he was really impressive, the last time we saw him, at Cheltenham in January…

I would expect him to come on for the run though, so a straight forecast of Cloudy Dream to beat Pain au Choclat is probably the way to play things today…

2:00 Island Heights is the third eye catcher running today.
He caught the eye last time out at Carlisle, running on at the end of the race, in a way that suggested his turn wasn’t far off.

I guess his turn might be today – and I would certainly expect him to run well – I just feel he could be vulnerable to something.

That said, identifying which one, is tricky…

Cases can be made for Sharp Response, Big Water, Master Grez and Ami Desbois – though they all have question marks over them as well.

I guess you could back Island Heights EW at 4/1 – and accept slight loss if he only places (but the chance of a win).
It’s not really my style, but it might appeal to some, I guess…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Ffos 2:55 Red Devil Lads 0.375pt win 11/2

Eye Catchers

Asc 1:35 Brother Tedd

Asc 2:45 Rothman

Hayd 2:00 Island Heights

Top Picks

Asc 3:20 Minella Daddy