Daily write-up - Nov 8th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Huntingdon, Lingfield and Sedgefield.

Before I looked at the declared runners, my assumption was that the days best racing would be at Huntingdon, where there is a class 2 handicap hurdle – but I was wrong…

The Huntingdon card is OK – but the ground is still quick – and the fields not particularly competitive.

Sedgefield put on the card of the day – which was something of a surprise.

In fact, I could easily have tipped in 2 or 3 races there…

The Lingfield card has little merit - the only surprising thing is that it is being run on good ground, By this time of the year, its is normally borderline unraceable there !

With regard to the tips, then I got my first reminder this morning, of just how hard it is to tip in these small mid week races…

I feel I’ve been incredible diligent this year; reducing the number of guys on the daily tips service – issuing at 8:40 – and insisting that everyone stays off BF.

And touch wood, that seems to be working – the price of Paddys Field was unchanged, an hour after I sent it out...

However, what I can’t do is legislate for the actions of others, outside of the service.
I also wanted to tip Drumlee Lad in the same race.

He was a 14/1-16/1 shot last night – and 12/1-14/1 shot at 8:00 this morning.

However as I was typing out the tip for him at 8:05, his price crashed.

12/1 became 7/1 – and there was blue all across oddschecker.

It’s simply impossible for me to deal with such situation – unless I abandon my 8:40 time slot for early tips.

Ofcouse, if I did that, then a number of you wouldn’t be able to get on (because not all the bookmakers are priced up) – and those who could would almost certainly find their accounts being quickly restricted.

Like I say, it’s an impossible situation…

I guess it’s still early days – and hopefully it’s something that won’t happen too many times – it just shows how difficult it is to bet in these races.

Anyway, on to the rationale for the days tips – and my thoughts on some of the other races…

Sedgefield

1:35 On looking at this race, I felt there were two paths that could be taken, in order to find the winner…

You could either trust the form line of a race won over this course by Volvolian, at the end of October – and support one of Ascot du Bruyere, Restraint of Trade or Wolf Sword: or you could opt for a southern raider, being sent north for relatively easy pickings – namely, Bishops Court, Paddys Field, or Drumlee Lad…

My inclination was to favour the second path – with seasonal debutantes, Paddys Field and Drumlee Lad, the two I was most interested in.

Paddys Field represents Ben Pauling and he ran in last season NH novices hurdle final, at Sandown (won by Barney Dwan).

That race is invariable a really good source of novice chasers for the forthcoming season.

Paddys Field was a 14/1 shot in that race – so not unfancied – and he ran reasonably well, to finish 8^th of 18.

That was only his fourth run over obstacles – so it’s fair to think he has plenty of improvement in him.

If I knew he was fit, then off a 2lb lower mark today, I would make him the clear race favourite.

Obviously, I don’t know he’s fit – but Pauling has brought him a long way, if he just wants to get a run into him…

It’s a similar story with Drumlees Lad.

He was a hugely impressive winner over hurdles at Doncaster in March, on his first outing for Johnny Farrelly.

He was put up 11lb for that run – and disappointed on his 2 subsequent runs last season – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him resume his improvement today.
Again, his fitness has to be taken on trust - but he’s another who has travelled a long way, if he’s not…

In terms of those from the Volvolian race, then I would probably go with Wolf Sword – who travelled very nicely to the second last, before tiring.

Of the others, then Teo Vivo is very well handicapped, based on his hurdles form. However he’s not run this season – and is 9 years old (so lacks the potential improvement of most of his rivals).
That said, if he is strong in the market, I would be worried about him.

2:40 Initially, I felt that the market was saying that only 3 horses could win this race – but I’m now not sure that it is…

Interestingly, the 3 it liked, were the same 3 I liked – which is maybe why I noticed it !

The 3 in question, were the market leaders: Blakemount, Apterix and Lord Wishes.

My issue with Blakemount is that I think he is likely to need the run (that’s certainly been the case in previous seasons); I also think he would prefer a longer trip (even though he won over 2m4f on his final outing last season).

Apterix strikes me as the most likely race winner…

He’s not particularly well handicapped, based on his hurdles form – but he’s not badly handicapped, either.
He is also potentially still improving – and ran a nice race on his chasing debut in a very hot 4 runner novice event at Doncaster, 10 days ago.
If he can build on that, then I would expect him to take the beating today.

The third one of interest, is Lord Wishes.

He won on his seasonal debut at Wetherby and is just 3lb higher today.
What’s more, that 3lb is offset by jockey Dale Irving (who claims 5lb), meaning he is effectively 2lb lower today.

There’s nothing to dislike about him really - and he should really be an EW bet to nothing, at 6/1…

Of the others, I’ll be keeping an eye on Raktiman and Lough Kent – but more with a view to the future…

For today, I’ll stick with my original 3 – regardless of what the market says !!

3:45 I could very interested in Tomkevi in this…

Ex French, he won a better class race than this on only his fourth outing in the UK, last January.

He was raised 4lb for that run – but following a low key return at Carlisle, the handicapper has rather bizarrely dropped him 5lb.

That means he is now on a mark 1lb lower than the one he won from on his penultimate outing.

Watching the Carlisle race, I didn’t think he shaped too badly.
He moved nicely throughout the race, just weakening up the home straight.
He looked to me, simply like a horse in need of the run…

I guess there is the possibility that wasn’t the case – and his market strength near the off, will probably advise if that’s the case - but that was my reading of the situation…

In such circumstances, I would have been very keen to tip him – apart from the presence in the race of Theatrebar.
He makes his debut today for Dan Skelton, today - and could be very well handicapped.

My feeling is that he’d be better of over fences – but I’m still not keen on opposing him…

In these circumstances, I’m sure Liam would advise on ‘betting without the favourite’ - and in that market, Tomkevi could indeed be a good bet, at 9/2.

I’ll leave you to decide on the best way to play things…

Huntingdon

1:10 As I mentioned the forum, last night, I was never going to tip in this race – but I do think it very interesting that Barry Geraghty has gone to Huntingdon today, for just he one ride.
Geraghty has an amazing record at the track (9 for 19) – and the horse that has drawn him there, is River Frost.
He is making his hurdling debut today for Alan King – but has some reasonable flat form in his native France.

Clearly it’s an impossible race to be adamant about – but River Frost was a 9/2 shot last night, which struck me as ‘value’.

He’s 11/4 now (suggesting I was right !) – and I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see him backed even shorter.
Certainly if he is going to win, I think that will be the case…

1:45 Also in the forum last night, Francis was putting forward a case for Elkstone, on it’s first run for Caroline Bailey.

Personally, I filed the race in the ‘too difficult’ tray – but the defection of  Copperfacejack this morning, has made it look a bit easier…

There appears to have been support for Elkstone this morning as well - so fingers crossed Francis has managed to find a good one…

2:20 I’m quite drawn to Beltor in this – though accept I could be making a mistake !
He’s a horse who has threatened to be very decent, in his relatively short career – but is in danger of becoming disappointing…

He was sent off just a 7/1 chance for Peace and Cos Triumph hurdle – and didn’t run too badly that day, over a course that was never really going to suit.

Huntingdon will be far more to his liking – so off a mark of just 138, he must have a chance.

Ofcourse, you have to be prepared to forgive 3 disappointing runs last season – but maybe something just wasn’t right with him.

He’s undoubtedly risky – but at 10/1, might be worth a small play…

3:20 This race is far too trappy to consider getting involved in – though I do quite like the look of both Demographic and Ballycash.
The former has its first run for bang in form, Emma Lavelle (and is the only runner she has at the track); whilst the latter has it’s first run in a handicap, after 3 low key runs in novice events.

Unfortunately at 6/1 and 5/1 respectively, you’re not going to get rich by backing either one.

You would get rich if you backed Breaking the Bank – as he’s a 40/1 shot.

I would struggle to put together a coherent case for him – but I suspect he will outrun those odds.

Maybe I’ll put him on Francis’ dobbers thread, instead !

3:55 A little bit like the opener on the card, it’s only educated guess work - however, I suspect that Guiding Star is the one to beat in this…

He’s the only runner on the day for Harry Whittington – and is owned by Andrew Brookes (who has a lot of good horses with Venetia Williams).
I suspect that Whittington will be trying to make a good impression on a potential new big owner, and the fact that Gavin Sheehan travels back from Lingfield to ride the horse, seems very significant.

You can only get 7/2 on him, which is plenty short enough – but if I was looking for the race winner, he would be top of my list.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Sedg 1:35 Paddys Field 0.25pt win 5/1