Daily write-up - Nov 24th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Towcester and Taunton in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

There was a fourth scheduled for Musselburgh – but that was abandoned yesterday, due to a frozen track…

I was a bit surprised to see that the going for the 2 UK meetings, appears to be on the soft side of good.

After all the rain of the past week, I expected it to be soft ground everywhere – but that’s clearly not the case.

I guess it’s been so dry over the past few months, there is plenty of places for the water to drain.

Another bout of similar rain, and we might well be looking at much softer ground…

Anyway, enough of the meteorology – and on to the racing !

The quality improves slightly today – and there are certainly a few races where tipping/betting is possible.

The issue of fragile (and volatile) early markets remains, so finding early value is still  tricky. However, I’ve hopefully got a few pointers which will help you eak out a profit on the day.

Here are my thoughts – including the rationale for the days tip – and my views on the days eye catchers…

Taunton

1:45 This is a particularly tight looking race – and I could give a chance to almost all of the field…

The one I am most drawn to is Minellacelebration.

He did really well to get the better of What a Moment, on his penultimate outing at Aintree - as that one subsequently went on and won a decent race at Cheltenham…

Minellacelebration didn’t do quite so well next time, when only finishing fourth at Exeter, but I think he might be able to bounce back today.

He is likely to get his own way up front, so if he can get into a good rhythm, he could put the jumping of his rivals under pressure.

His mark was raised 7lb for his Aintree win – and his subsequent defeat at Exeter suggests that might have been enough.

However, I suspect he still has some improvement in him – and he could well show that to be the case, today.

At a bigger price, Luccombe Down is the other one that interests me.
He is making his chasing debut today, so his ability to jump has to be taken on trust.

However, he was a decent hurdler – so if he does improve for fences, he could go very close this afternoon.

However, as I said, it’s race where I would really only feel comfortable (ish !) eliminating Impulsive American  - so if you are going to get involved, you must make sure you get ‘value’.

Minellacelebration at 4/1 and Luccombe Down at 8/1, feel about right, to me…

2:20 Miracle Cure is clearly the on to beat in this.
He won at Wincanton last Thursday – and because it was a conditional jockeys race, he escapes a penalty for that win.
As a consequence, he is 7lb ‘well in’ today – so provided he has recovered from his exertions, he must go well…

I guess I have 3 issues with him: firstly, a week isn’t a very long time; secondly, that was his first run in 18 months, so he could ‘bounce’ – and thirdly, he’s a 2/1 shot !

In fairness, Venetia is a master at getting such horses to run up sequences, so he may well overcome the issues - but he is still a 2/1 shot !!

The sensible option might be to find one EW – but I’m optimistic, that I have one to beat him…

Fouburg was an eye catcher last time out.

That was in a handicap chase at Stratford, when he tanked through the race – but didn’t get home.
That’s a problem with Fouburg – but connections are wise to it – and I’m sure they will take every possible step to preserve his energy today.
If they can, then I have absolutely no doubt that he is a very well handicapped horse, running off a mark of just 113.

If you look at his form you will see that when he made his debut last season, he was beaten under a length by Who Dares Wins – that one is now rated 140.

In his third race, at Kempton, he finished fourth to 3 horses who are all now rated 130+. More than that, turning in, he looked likely to win.

There is little doubt in my mind, that Fouburg could have at least a stone in hand of his mark – if connections can get him to run his race.

In truth, that is easier said than done.
However, I think that a speed test in a big field is what he wants  - and that is exactly what he gets today.
I’m quite happy with him reverting to hurdles, having run previously over fences – and I think this will come down to whether Gavin Sheehan can switch him off at the back of the field.

If he can, then I think he will win (or go very close): if he can’t then he will likely come nowhere…

An option would be a low in running lay, to at least cover stakes – as if he doesn’t settle well enough, he could still look like he might win (as he will likely travel very strongly).

Personally, I don’t want to see him appear on the scene, until between the final two flights of hurdles.
Here’s hoping Gavin can deliver him just right…

Towcester

1:05 Elkstone is the other official eye catcher running today – and I would have been tempted to tip him as well, if I could have got a price…

He ran a huge race, last time out, on his debut for Caroline Bailey.
That was in a 3 mile chase at Huntington and Elkstone jumped like a buck – until tiring and falling at the third last.

Based purely on that run, he has an excellent chance today, against limited opposition – but I do think there are plenty of question marks hanging over him…

Firstly, whether the fall has affected him. It was a real bone shaker – and we won’t know the answer to that one until he jumps the first, today.
Secondly, how he will cope with the drop in distance. I felt he wanted less than 3 miles – but I might have been inclined to go for 2m4f, not the bare 2 miles.

And thirdly, how will he deal with the hood, which is being applied for the first time.

Hoods are generally put on, in order to calm horses – so we may not see the exuberance that we saw at Huntington.
In fact, the application of a hood – and dropping in distance, is a curious combination.

I would have been happy with either one – but I just wonder if both, might be overdoing it…

Whatever, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a very different race today – maybe settled in and arriving late.

Ofcoruse, non of this means he can’t win – just that things might not be quite as we expect…

I would still probably have taken a risk on him at around 6/1 – but I just feel that 4/1 is too tight (even with the limited opposition).

My tendency now is to not back him pre-race – but to hope that he is settled in the rear (against everyone’s expectations) – and back him in running.

I would be hopefully that I will get my 6/1 – plus a bit more, in that scenario…

In terms of his rival, then Dontminddboys and Distant Rain are the 2 that interest me most. I might cover my stakes on them…

1:35 Verygoodverygood is the obvious one in this – but I think he will have his work cut out to win.
That’s not to say he won’t win – just to say that I doubt it will be easy for him.

Firstly he is climbing up the handicap (and that will stop him eventually): but secondly, he is taking on some decent horses…

Vie le Roi, Lord of the Island and King Cool, all look like potential dangers.

Of the 3, King Cool is the one that appeals most to me – though significant money for either of the other 2, would have to be respected.

I could also give half a chance to Ascotdeux Nellerie – I suspect he is talented, but fragile.

He can be backed at 25/1 - and I think that is too big.

The Towcester course should suit Verygoodverygood perfectly as he’s a horse who responds to plenty of riding.

He will almost certainly trade bigger than 6/4 in running – so if you do want to get involved with him, about half a mile from home is probably the time to do it…

3:15 Vinnieslittle Lamb makes his debut for Venetia in this – and looks the one to beat.

He’s not run for nearly 2 years – but that is rarely an issue for Venetia horses.
Certainly he is handicapped to go very close, having won off exactly the same mark as he runs off today, back in November 2014.

That was at todays track – but over 2 miles, on heavy ground. That said, I doubt the extra 5 furlongs will be an issue today – particular on a quicker surface.

Tutchec is the other one that really interests me.
He was a fair horse a few seasons back (rated 130), but then completely lost his way.
He is now in the care of Harry Whittington – but unseated on his seasonal debut at Fontwell.
There is a lot of guess work in involved with him – but if Whittington has got him back, then he has the back class to laugh at a current mark of 94…

Thurles

1:00 It’s not every Thursday afternoon that you see 2 dual Cheltenham festival winners competing against each other – but that’s what is happening in this race…

Lord Windermere – winner of the RSA chase and Gold Cup, takes on Champagne Fever – winner of the bumper and Supreme novice hurdle.

Both horses are on the comeback trail after quite some time off the track – and neither is likely to be fully tuned up this afternoon.
That said, I would still expect a big performance from Champagne Fever - and over close to his optimum trip, he is undoubtedly the one to beat.

6/4 is arguably not a bad price – as his main rival, Wounded Warrior, is likely to want more of a stamina test.

That said, with so much uncertainty, it is still probably a watching race…

3:10 I hope some of you were paying attention last week, when I gave a positive mention to Accordion Twilight…

He didn’t manage to get a race that day – but he’s got one today – and has been very well backed.

The 14/1 last night is now 6/1 – and that could be significant.
Ofcourse, it’s not the kind of race which can be tackled with any confidence (unless you have some inside information) - but the betting normally tells an accurate tale.

If he remains strong in the market to the off, I suspect he will go very close…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

DT Taun 2:20 Fouburg 0.25pt win 10/1

Eye Catchers

Towc 1:05 Elkstone

Taun 2:20 Fouburg