There are 3 NH meetings today: at Bangor, Exeter and
Ayr.
Just
a couple of days ago, I was bemoaning the lack of rain – well I can’t complain
about that any more !
It
has seemingly been raining overnight everywhere – and there will doubtless be
going changes to contend with.
That in itself is a pain (as I recall only too well, from last season !) – but for the greater good, I’ll take a few days of uncertain ground.
That in itself is a pain (as I recall only too well, from last season !) – but for the greater good, I’ll take a few days of uncertain ground.
I
really haven’t got much of an idea as to how it will be riding at today’s 3
meetings – so it makes sense to tread cautiously.
That
said, of the 2 tips I issued, one would prefer it a bit quicker; and one would
prefer it a bit slower – so hopefully we have all angles covered !
With
regard to the issuing of the tip this morning, then in truth, I’m not sure
exactly how it went.
Unlike yesterday, there was relative market stability,
just after 8:00, so I typed up the tips at that point.
I
then effectively issued them ‘blind’ half an hour later – and hoped that the
odds hadn’t changed too much !
Looking at the history on oddschecker, it would appear
that 9/1 on Valadom was fine – but it might have been a bit of a challenge on
Smooth Stepper.
However, in a big competitive race like todays, I would
hope everyone managed to get within a point of the advised price…
Anyway, enough of the pre-amble and on with the thoughts
on the day…
Bangor
12:50 Mumgos Debut is clearly the one to beat in
this…
He
hacked up at Hexham last Friday – and because it was in a conditional jockeys
race, he is able to run without a penalty today.
The handicapper has raised him 10lb for that win – so he is effectively 10lb ‘well in’.
The handicapper has raised him 10lb for that win – so he is effectively 10lb ‘well in’.
Lucinda Russell has said that he needs soft ground – but
he will probably get that, so provided he’s recovered from last weeks race, he
looks the most likely winner.
That
said, he’s stepping up in class and whilst 2/1 is probably a fair price – it’s
not one that would draw me in.
I
could have been quite tempted by Minella Forfitness, at a much bigger price.
However, he really wants quicker ground, so the rain may well have ruied his
chances.
Zanstra is the other one of major interest, but he has to
bounce back from a very disappointing seasonal debut at Aintree (though a class
drop, enabled by a 4lb reduction in his handicap mark, will undoubtedly
help)…
1:50 The big race of the day looks very
competitive in terms of field size – but I suspect you can draw a line through
half of them…
Many
of the runners are returning from their summer break and this is an ideal
contest for decent horses to blow away the cobwebs.
10
of the 14 strong field haven’t run this season – and I suspect that only a
couple of those will be fully primed for today…
One
that I hope will be, is Smooth Stepper.
He
was quickly into his stride last season – following up a second at this course,
with a win at Newcastle.
He
ran arguably his best race of the season at Cheltenham at the end of January,
when finishing third in a really hot novice handicap chase.
He
handled the heavy ground well that day – just seeming to find the trip on the
short side.
An
extra half mile today should help in that respect – and the fact he can run from
a mark 2lb lower, is a real bonus.
His
fitness does need to be take on trust – but Sue Smith is in incredible form (9
of her last 11 runners have finished first or second) and with Danny Cook
booked, I just get the feeling that he will be going for it today…
There are no fitness doubts about Valadom – and if the
rain hadn’t come, I’d be pretty keen on him.
In
fairness, the rain hasn’t completely spoilt his chance - it will just make it
more of a stamina test, and I don’t think stamina is his strong suit.
What
he is good at, is bold jumping, front running – and I can see him getting plenty
of this field in trouble.
His
recent pipe opener over hurdles – and the booking of 3lb claimer, Jamie Bargary,
make me feel that connections have targeted this race and I expect him to go
very close.
There is an ‘eye catcher’ running in the race, in the
shape of Gallery Exhibition – but I don’t think that a big field and left
handed, is what he wants.
There will be other days for him.
Aside from the 2 tips, I currently fear nothing ! –
however, that would change if there was significant market confidence behind any
of the horses without a run so far this season.
Hopefully that won’t materialise, and it will simply boil down to whether Valadom can hold off Smooth Stepper, after jumping the last 2 lengths clear
Hopefully that won’t materialise, and it will simply boil down to whether Valadom can hold off Smooth Stepper, after jumping the last 2 lengths clear
3:00 Messire Des Obeaus is a pretty short priced
favourite for this – and I can understand why…
He
showed real promise on his 2 runs for Alan King last winter – and with a summer
on his back, could easily prove himself
far better than his current rating of 128.
He
is the most likely winner…
If
the rain hadn’t arrived, I would have been quite keen on Foxclub (particularly
if there has been 1 more runner in the race).
He has won this race for the past 2 seasons – and off roughly the same handicap mark that he runs off today.
He has won this race for the past 2 seasons – and off roughly the same handicap mark that he runs off today.
An
outing on the flat last month, suggests that connections wanted to get him spot
of for today – but he doesn’t want soft ground…
Maybe keep an eye on how the track is riding – and if it
isn’t to bad, the 9/2 without Messire Des Obeaux in the race, would certainly
hold some appeal.
Ayr
1:40 I had earmarked Viva Steve as the first Top
Pick of the season – but the rain has scuppered that plan…
It’s
not that I don’t think he can handle soft ground – it’s just that I don’t know
how soft it will get.
Couple that with todays trip being his maximum – and it being his first run of the season – and I have visions of him emptying, after jumping the second last.
Time will tell, I guess.
Without the rain, I would have been happy enough to play at 2/1 on a horse who could well improve for a change of stables –and isn’t too badly handicapped, regardless.
It looks significant to me that Paddy Brennan has gone up Scotland to ride him – and I think he will take a lot of beating.
Couple that with todays trip being his maximum – and it being his first run of the season – and I have visions of him emptying, after jumping the second last.
Time will tell, I guess.
Without the rain, I would have been happy enough to play at 2/1 on a horse who could well improve for a change of stables –and isn’t too badly handicapped, regardless.
It looks significant to me that Paddy Brennan has gone up Scotland to ride him – and I think he will take a lot of beating.
In
terms of his opponents, then Ballyben and Presenting Junior are the 2 to focus
on.
The
latter is very well handicapped – and will relish todays return to 3 miles – but
he prefers quick ground.
Consequently, Ballyben is probably the main danger – but
he is also the second favourite…
Exeter
1:30 Surprisingly, I don’t have any particularly
strong views on the Exeter card…
However, Umberto D’Olivate running off just 108 in this,
really catches the eye.
In
fairness the form he was in last season, meant that the handicapper had to drop
him to that kind of mark – but he’s an animal who should be capable of running
to a mark in the 120s, so if Robert Walford has managed to coax him back to form
over the summer, he could dot up in this…
2:35 Finally a quick mentioned for Aux Ptit Soins
in this.
As
those of you who access the forum will have seen, I put him up yesterday for the
JLT novice chase at the Cheltenham festival.
He’s
a general 12/1 shot for that race - but if he wins as I expect today, he could
well be single figures, by this evening.
Obviously, he’s not an ‘official’ tip (I would have
issued him in an email if that was the case) – but I know that quite a few of
you like to build a portfolio for Cheltenham and the sub forum I’ve created will
hopefully help with that.
Provided his jumping cuts mustard, I will be hugely
disappointed if he doesn’t win easily…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
BRT
Bang 1:50 Valadom 0.25pt win 9/1
BRT
Bang 1:50 Smooth Stepper 0.25pt win 9/1
Eye Catchers
Bang
1:50 Gallery Exhibition
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