Daily write-up - Dec 3rd

There are 5 NH meetings today: at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow and Wetherby in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It really is a crazy situation.

There has barely been a decent race all week – never mind a decent meeting – then Saturday arrives and there are top class horses literally everywhere !

Ofcourse it’s exactly what the bookmakers want: a series of ferociously competitive races, one after another. Trying to find a decent bet becomes almost as difficult as it is during the week…

Anyway, it is as it is.
We at least have the option of cherry picking the best opportunities today – and that’s not something we’ve been able to do for the past few days…

In terms of tips and eye catchers:

I’ve ended up with 7 tips on the day. Whether I’ve chosen the right horses to tip – or indeed the right races to tip in, only time will tell. I’ve done my best to strike a balance between ‘value bets’ and likely winners.

There are also 8 eye catchers running – which again, is a ridiculous number.

I’ve offered a view – even if only briefly – on all of them.

Here are my thoughts on the day – fingers crossed we get some reward for all of the effort !!

Sandown

1:20 It’s half tempting to take on Blue Charm in this.

Not because I think he can’t win – but just because I think that 2/1 is too short in a race such as this.

Certainly, if he is weak in the market close to the off, then I think he should be taken on (as he comes from a stable, where money tends to talk).

His chance based on flat form, is quite obvious: he’s rated 101 on the flat and just 131 over hurdles.
That suggests he could have stone in hand of his mark, today - and if he does, he will win.

Ofcouse, it’s rarely that simple, and based purely on his hurdling form, then stepping up in trip for the first time today, he is vulnerable.
If I did take him on, it would likely be with Arctic Gold.

He was a big improver last season – and with his seasonal debut under his belt, I could see him running well this afternoon.

The booking of a 10lb claimer just adds to the appeal – and at 8/1 he could even be backed each way…

The other one of particular interest is Sirop de Menthe.

He pipped Red Devil Lads last time at Ffos Las – and I’m sure there is even more improvement in him.
However, I’m hoping it will be on softer ground, so am going to pass on him this afternoon.

1:55 It’s not a betting race, but it will be fascinating to see how Altior does, on his second run over fences…

He was really impressive on his chasing debut – but he faced just the one rival that day.
He only faces 3 today – but non of them are mugs.

More than that, Charbel and Marracudja will ensure it’s a properly run race.
Make no mistake, this is likely to provide a thorough test for Altior.

The expectation is that it’s one he’ll be up to it – but if there are any chinks in his armour, I can see them being exposed…

2:25 This is an intriguing race, but one where there are so many unknowns, it’s impossible to play with any confidence.

For a start, both Kingston and Indietir are making their UK debuts. Both have only raced in France, previously, so it’s nearly impossible to know how good they are.

The market suggests that Indietir is pretty useful – and he probably is. But whether he will be useful enough to win this – and whether he will be primed to do so - is a different matter…

Even ignoring those two, it s a tricky contest.

I quite like the 4 year olds, Zubayr and Consul de Thaix.
Both of them ran in last years Triumph hurdle, with the latter faring best.

Despite that, he is 12lb better off with Zubayr today. Both have plenty of scope for improvement however, so the value of the form in the book, is questionable…

Brain Power and Wishfull Dreaming are 2 more with plenty of potential: whilst Kayf Blanco is a horse I had my eye on last season  – and he races off a mark which I think he can win from.

There is clearly too much guess work to get involved: but if forced, I would nominate Consul de Thaix as the most likely winner; with Kayf Blanco an interesting outsider…

3:00 This is a weak looking Tingle Creek – and based on the form book, Un De Sceaux is hardly a solid favourite…

He natural exuberance has put him on the floor, on his seasonal debut in the past – and Sandown takes plenty of jumping.

More than that, 2 miles on quickish ground probably isn’t sufficient stamina test for him – so there are reasons to take him on…

However, on the flip side, he is the only runner that Willie Mullins sends over from Ireland – and Ruby Walsh’s only ride of the day.

He’s running instead of Douvan – and they could well be keen to make a point…

A lot will depend on tactics. I suspect Ruby will track Ar Mad – and if Un De Sceaux does get into a rhythm, he could still be difficult to beat.

Whilst the course suits him admirably, I’ll be a little surprised if Ar Mad is good enough to take this on his seasonal debut: whilst the ground (and age) are not in Sire de Grugys favour.
With Sir Valentino and Vibrato Valtat both a little outclassed, it leaves God’s Own as the main danger to Un de Sceaux.

Conditions will suit him fine – and he’s always been better going right handed.

The only niggle with him, is that Tom George has been keen to step him up in trip to 3 miles – and yet he is running today over the bare 2 miles.

That said, he seemed not to get home over 2m5f at ascot last time, so a drop in trip could well help.

4/1 is a fair enough price in the circumstances – and he is worth getting on side.

3:30 This is quite a weak race, as is demonstrated by the fact that the 10 year old, Loose Chips, arguably sets the standard – and off a career high mark !

I’m sure he will run a decent race – but he won a veterans chase last time out, and you would hope there was something capable of improving past him, in a £40K race…

The 2 most obvious contenders are Conas Taoi and Doing Fine.

The latter was a fair handicap chaser for Rebecca Curtis, last season. He is now in the care of Neil Mullholland and was an eye catcher on his debut for him, over hurdles at Sedgefield.

I have some concerns about his constitution – and his jumping ability – but he has the basic ability to win this off a mark of just 126.

Conas Taoi was a big improver last season (his rating rose from 91 to 122) and as he is still just 7, it is reasonable to think, there could be more improvement in him this season.

He also looks the sort who will be well suited by a marathon trip – and has a course win to his name (admittedly in fortuitous circumstances).

His stable has just hit a patch of very good form – and Charlie Deutsch takes 5lb off what is already a very low weight.
It’s not easy to choose between the pair – but as he was available at double the odds, yesterday evening, then Conas Taoi had to be the ‘value bet’.

Aintree

12:30 The Fresh Prince was an eye catcher last time out at Stratford.
That was on his seasonal debut, over 2 miles – and he travelled strongly and jumped well, until lack of fitness took its toll.

I’m not surprised to see him stepped up in trip today (he has won a PTP over 3 mile) –and I’m not surprised to see him running at Aintree (his owner, Trevor Hemmings, loves to have runners a the track).

I’m also not surprised to see him very well backed (he was 8/1 yesterday evening – but you now can’t beat 9/2).

Ofcourse, market support won’t stop him winning – but it does make him a less attractive betting proposition.

In truth, there is a fair bit of guess work involved with him, so you would want a bit of a price…

It wouldn’t surprise me to see him win – but from a betting perspective, I think Baileys Concerto now offers better value.

He has an excellent record at the course – but needs quick (ish) ground.

I would probably prefer to see him over half a mile further – but he might get way with todays trip.

If he does, then he’s capable of outrunning odds of 16/1.

1:35 This really is a very strong race – and even with half a dozen stabs at it, I wouldn’t be confident of hitting the winner.
Furthermore, that’s ignoring the luck element – and whilst Aintree is not longer the challenge it once was, you still need some luck to safely negotiate 21 fences, in the company of 22 rivals…

My short list of 6 would consist of: Viscount du Noyer: The Young Master; Vieux Lion Rouge; Silvergrove; Ziga Boy and Milborough.

I did consider tipping 2 or 3 of them – but instead, I’ve decided just to side with Ziga Boy.

He made a big impression on me, when beating Coologue at Doncaster last January.

He gets to run from a mark just 4lb higher today – so I think he is well enough handicapped to win today

I also thought he ran a very nice race on his seasonal debut at Bangor – a contest which was clearly designed to tee him up for this.

Whether he will be up to jumping round the course, is anyone’s guess - but if he does, then I would expect him to go well.

I would make Vieux Lion Rouge, just about the most likely winner – but I don’t see sufficient margin in his odds, to warrant a risk.

The same is true of both The Young Master and Viscount de Noyer.

Milborough is the most interesting of the rank outsiders. He won the Eider at Newcastle a couple of seasons back and runs today off a mark just 1lb higher.
If his usual jockey, Graham Watters was on board, I would possibly have taken a chance on him, but unfortunately he’s at Sandown riding for Charlie Longsdon (his retained stable).

Bob Ford was an eye catcher last time, over hurdles at Ffos Las.

He’s better over fences – but he’s also better on very soft ground…

I’ll therefore stick with Ziga Boy from a tipping perspective – and just enjoy the spectacle.

2:10 I tipped Leoncavallo last time out in the Greatwood hurdle at the Cheltenham November meeting.

He disappointed that day – the suggestion being that he needed further than the bare 2 miles.

He gets 4 furlongs further today – and that will doubtless help him – as will the fact this is a weaker race.

However he has to run from a mark 5lb higher – and that’s a negative.

I can see him running a fair race – but he’s not a compelling bet, at 6/1…

In truth, it looks quite an open race – though if Clondaw Kaempfer can re-find his form, he could laugh at his current mark.

He won a much strong race than this, over todays course and distance, at the Grand national meeting a couple of seasons back.

That was off a mark of 137 – he runs off a mark of 128 today…

Needless to say, he’s not been in the best of form in the interim: but he did finish third on his seasonal return at Bangor – and the winner of that race was Messire des Obeaux (who won a graded race at Sandown, yesterday)

Clondaw Kaempfer also has a marked preference for decent ground – which he should get today.

The question is simply whether the fire still burns…

If it does, he should win this – and 6/1 is not a bad price.

2:40 I really feel that Minella Rocco needs to be taken on in this…

I do rate the horse – but 3 miles on decent ground, round a quick track like Aintree, is not what he wants…

Many Clouds is the obvious alternative – but I don’t see a lot of value in a price of 3/1.

Instead, I’m opting for Cocktails at Dawn.

He has a bit to find on official ratings – and is not proven over the 3 mile trip.
However, he has a very good record fresh – and Daryl Jacobs may be able to dictate the pace on him…

The race he won on his seasonal debut at Chepstow, 12 months ago, turned out to be very strong, with Blaklion and Native River amongst his victims.

That may flatter him a bit – though he certainly didn’t look flattered on the day.

The race pace angle is also interesting, as other than possibly Many Clouds, I can’t see anything else that will want to race prominently.

At the end of the day, there is an angle into the race, which I don’t feel has been factored into the prices.

Cocktails at Dawn will need things to unfold in a particular way, but if they do, I think he is capable of stealing the race.

3:15 I don’t feel like it’s been the best of seasons so far – yet memories of quite a few high lights are being triggered by the runners in this particular race !

Valadom and Astracad were both winning tips in November: whilst Troika Steps provided the high light of the pre-season, when successful at Cheltenham in October.

All 3 have chances again today – but off higher marks and in a tougher race, I’m prepared to take them on…

I’m also prepared to take on a couple of eye catchers: Henryville, who caught the eye at Chepstow before disappointing at Cheltenham: and Seefood, who caught the eye at Cheltenham before winning at Musselburgh.
I’ll be very surprised if Henryville takes to the Aintree fences – though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Seefood run well.

Bennys Mist won this race 12 months ago – but he races off a 7lb higher mark and, more importantly, won’t get the soft ground he loves.

I would be more fearful of last years runner up, Seventh Sky – though he too is higher in the weights this time - and I feel he needs more of a test.

I think the key form line for this race, is last seasons Topham, over todays course and distance.

As De Mee, La Vatican and Rouge et Blanc all ran in that race – and all were still in with a chance approaching the second last.

That is where the chance of all 3 ended, with As De Mee eventually finishing seventh, one place ahead of La Vatican and a fair way ahead of Rouge et Blanc (who burst a blood vessel).

As de Mee is better off at the weights with the other 2 today – and as the younger horse, has the greater scope for improvement.

He also had a breathing operation over the summer – and his debut run this season suggested that he might be better for it.
In terms of the most likely winner, then it has to be him.

I was also sorely tempted by Rouge et Blanc...

He’s not that well handicapped  – but did show in the Topham that he handles the course.

He also has an excellent record when fresh.

He’s already 11 years old, so it’s difficult to make a compelling case for him – but at 33/1 (or bigger in places) he is definitely worth a small (unofficial) saver.

Chepstow

1:05 I’m drawn to Fingerontheswitch in this – but I suspect that might be a mistake !

He is very well handicapped over fences compared to hurdles – but that was the case last time, and he didn’t take advantage then.

In fairness, that was in a stronger race than todays (the Badger Ales trophy, at Wincanton) – but he was still disappointing.

It’s possible that it’s just going to take time for things to click with him over fences – and he is young enough for that to happen.

However, I just can’t quite bring myself to side with him, until he has at least shown something more over the bigger obstacles.

In truth, this is not an easy race to get a handle on.

Top weight, What a Moment, looks the one to beat, based on his impressive last time out win at Cheltenham – todays track and trip should also suit him.

However, there a few potential dangers lurking lower down the weights, such as Boa island, Kerrow, Sykes and Newtown Lad.

In summary, probably a race best watched..!

2:15 I would have taken a risk on Atirelarigo in this, at a price – but 5/1 wasn’t the price I had in mind..!

I was quite keen on him last time at Kempton – but he made a shocking blunder at the third fence and unseated Dickie.

He’s back on board today (which I suspect is contributing to the relatively poor price) – and Chepstow is probably a little easier to jump round than Kempton.
However, even if he does jump round cleanly, there is plenty of guesswork involved with him…

My suspicion is that he is better than his current rating of 119 – but that needs to be proven.

In truth, this doesn’t look a particularly strong race: with lots of perennial losers – and horses who will be unsuited by the relatively quick conditions.

If the ground was softer (and I can’t believe it is good ground at Chepstow in December !) I would have taken a risk on Headleys Bridge – but I do think he wants ground that is at least soft (ideally heavy).

2:45 I’m quite surprised to see Corrin Wood as big as 4/1 in this…

We were on him last time, when he was beaten by Anteros at Cheltenham – but that was a really big run.

He’s only been raised a pound by the handicapper – so provided he’s not gone backwards from that run, he should take a lot of beating in this.
I would have expected him to be priced at 3/1 – or even less – so the fact he is a drifting 4/1 shot, worries me.

I mentioned earlier in the week that I don’t like it when runners from Dan Skeltons stable drift – and this would seem to be a case in point.

If the money does come for him later – then I’m pretty sure that he is sufficiently well handicapped to win this race.

Despite the numbers it’s not a very strong race – and consequently, eye catcher, Braavos must have a chance. He’s stepping up in trip today, having looked a bit slow last time. If that improves him, he should be in he shake up.

The other one worth watching is Lady of Longstone.

She’s been over fences recently – but that’s not been a success.

She did very well over hurdles last season and if a return to the smaller obstacles rekindles her enthusiasm, I could see her running a big race.

She likes to front run (which could cause an issue for Corrin Wood) – and is certainly worth considering for a back to lay in running (though be aware that she was reluctant to race last time, so there is a chance that jumping fences may have soured her).

3:20 Potters Cross provided another high light of the pre season, when winning a very similar race to this over course and distance, back in October.

He led from start to finish that day, and was very game when pressed close home.
My feeling was that there was more to come form him – and I made him an eye catcher on the back of that performance.

He’s only run once since then - in the Bet Victor chase at Cheltenham in November – but that race was never going to suit him.

Todays test, on the other hand, is perfect.

He’s running off a mark 4lb higher (7lb if you include his jockeys claim from last time) – but I think he is up to that.

Furthermore, this doesn’t look an overly strong race.

The punters have picked up on Lamb or Cod (helped no doubt, by Dickie being in the saddle) – but he will need to show a lot more than at Ascot last time.
Fergal Mael Duin is the other market principal – but if it comes to a battle between him and Potters Cross, I know which one I’ll want to be with.

Half chances can be given to a few of the others (particularly Jonjos trio) – but I don’t think the claims of any of them are as solid as those of Potters Cross.

Wetherby

2:50 A quick mention for eye catcher, Indian Voyage, in this…

Clearly he is handicapped to win – but I really would want to see him running on softer ground than he will get today – particularly over 2 miles.

We saw last time, he doesn’t quicken – he just stays on – and that makes him vulnerable, to horses who can quicken at the end of a race.

Maybe he will turn out to be so well handicapped, he will be able to take the field apart – and certainly, there are question marks over all of the others runners, as well.

He’s not one I would want to oppose – but at 9/4, I couldn’t support him either.

Fairyhouse

12:55 From a handicapping perspective, you just have to be with Turn over Sivola in this…

Formerly with Alan King in the UK, he was rated 137 a year ago, and looked capable of winning off that mark – in the right conditions.

Today he gets to run for the first time over fences for Gordon Elliot – and has an opening mark of just 126.

There is a chance that Elliot will have improved him – but regardless, he must have a very big chance.

What Turn over Sivola needed, when he was in the UK, was 2 miles and decent ground – and that’s exactly what he will get this afternoon.

2 mile handicap chases tend to be relatively weak affairs in Ireland – and for the prize money on offer (50K Euro) that’s true for this event.

JP McManus runs 3 – and Peoples Park and Jerry Dhonneur, are both relatively unexposed, so could be capable of big runs.

Art of Payroll heads the market – but I’m prepared to take him on.

Similarly, top weight, Dandridge comfortably beat Turn over Sivola at Doncaster last season, but is no less than 25lb worse off today (for 18 lengths).
He’ll be doing very well to confirm the form on those revised terms…

It’s difficult to know what’s a fair price for Turn over Sivola. I would want to see him strong in the market – but 6/1 early would seem reasonable enough.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Aint 1:35 Ziga Boy 0.125pt win 20/1

BRT Aint 2:40 Cocktails at Dawn 0.25pt win 8/1

BRT Aint 3:15 As de Mee 0.25pt win 8/1

BRT Sand 3:00 God’s Own 0.5pt win 4/1

BRT Sand 3:30 Conas Taoi 0.25pt win 9/1

DT Chep 3:20 Potters Cross 0.25pt win 10/1

DT Fair 12:55 Turn over Sivola 0.25pt win 8/1

Eye Catchers

Aint 12:30 The Fresh Prince

Aint 1:35 Bob Ford

Aint 3:15 Henryville

Aint 3:15 Seefood

Sand 3:30 Doing Fine

Chep 2:45 Braavos

Chep 3:20 Potters Cross

Weth 2:50 Indian Voyage