Daily write-up - Dec 31st

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

It might be Saturday – but todays cards have more of a mid week feel to them…

I guess that’s not too surprising, on the back of all the post Christmas meetings – and ahead of some really big meetings tomorrow, on New Years day.

It must be the first time in decades that there will be no racing on C4 – though RUK are free-to-air for the day…

It’s the final day of the Naps competition in the forum – and what a competition it has been !
Chris and Paul have been going at it hammer and tongue for a few days now – and posting some incredible results.

Between them they have managed to generate over 60 points profit during the month – staking just 2 pts a day, at easily available prices.

Maybe I should retire and leave the tipping to them (no need for mutterings from the back, thank you !).

It really has been a tremendous effort from them both – and shows the calibre of guys that are on the service.

May the best man win, chaps (though even the second best man, will also deserve a deal of respect).

Anyway, on to today.

One thing I do think you need to take consideration of, if you are getting involved, is where the various big name jockeys are riding…

-Richard Johnson and Paddy Brennan are at Warwick

-Sean Bowen and Tom Scudamore are at Uttoxeter

-Davy Russell is at Newbury

None of them will have travelled to those tracks for the good of their health.

All of their mounts need to be given due consideration…

I have issued just the one small tip on the day (ridden by Davy Russell !).

I guess I could have forced things tips wise (to try and save the month) – but that’s not my style.
Instead, I’ll look to kick off January with a good start tomorrow.

Needless to say there are quite a few mentions – and a couple of eye catchers, so sufficient to stop you from getting bored…

Newbury

12:40 There are enough that I’m happy to take on in this race, to make it one I want to play in…

Connetable and Potters Legend were two that I specifically targeted opposing, at early priced - though both have subsequently drifted and now don’t take out as much of the book as they did last night.

The 2 I am most interested in, are Welsh Shadow and Aqua Dude.
They actually met at Haydock in the middle of November, when both finished well beaten behind Politologue.

Welsh Shadow was particularly disappointing that day, as he was sent off favourite.

However he didn’t seem happy on the very wet ground – so I am hopeful he can bounce back on todays firmer surface.

Certainly, based on his hurdles form, he could be very well treated today, off a mark of just 135.

He looked a graded performer over hurdles as a novice last season - and even managed to finish fifth in the Neptune Investment novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

The expectation was that he would make an even better chaser – and it’s far too soon to be writing him off, after just one poor run on ground which he may not have handled.

As I said in the introduction, I do like the fact that Davy Russell is over for the ride. I respect the chances of race favourite, Aurillac – but I am most worried about Aqua Dude.

He isn’t a danger on form in the book – but I suspect he has a fair bit of potential.
Hopefully Welsh Shadow will be a bit too classy for him, however…

1:15 The highly progressive Yanmare is favourite for this.

Despite having won his last 3 races, he gets into the race with a weight of just 10st 2lb.

He’s a hard one to assess though: stepping up in class – and its difficult to know whether he will be up to the job.

He’s a strong stayer and I wouldn’t be sure that todays 3 mile trip on decent ground, will be enough of a stamina test.

I also don’t really know what to make of the booking of Gavin Sheehan – it just strikes me as a bit odd.

On balance I would take him on – that said, I did expect him to be shorter than 5/1…

I tipped both Potters Cross and Conas Taoi last time they ran – and both ran with a deal of credit.

I could be interested in them both again today – and I do like their jockey bookings !

The trouble is, Potters Cross is high in the weights - and Conas Taoi shouldn’t really beat Bob Tucker.

In fact, at 14/1, a very good case can be argued for Bob Tucker. The issue with him is simply the woeful form of the Charlie Longsdon stable – it would be difficult to tip anything trained by him, at this point in time…

Plenty of the others can also be given a chance.

Cases could be constructed for Willoughby Hedge, Treaty Girl and Blameitonmyroots, to name but 3.

Consequently, it feels like a race best swerved, from a tipping perspective…

1:50 I briefly thought about tipping Ami Desbois, EW, in this…

I was taken by his effort last time at Cheltenham – and he could get the run of the race, from the front.

It’s a difficult race to be adamant about – and whilst I think he probably would prefer an extra half mile, if Keilan Woods can get his fractions right, he could still be hard to pass.

I guess 2 things put me off: firstly the fact that it would be guess work – and secondly that if there is a NR (and the cynic in me thinks that Major Mac must be a prime candidate!), the place terms will be much less attractive.

In terms of the race winner: then Robin Roe seems to be very highly thought of; whilst it would seem significant that Gordon Elliot sends over Baltazar D’allier – but it is probably a race best watched…

2:25 Both Cepage and Knockgraffon were really impressive winners over this course ad distance, last time and it will be interesting to see which one comes out of top, this afternoon.

The form of Knockgraffons win is much stronger – and he was hardly fluent over some of his fences; however, Cepage has the greater scope for improvement.

In truth, it might not even be a 2 horse race.

Romain de Senam has plenty of potential; whilst outsider, Icing on the Cake, caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Fontwell in October.

He probably won’t be up to todays task – but I’ll be very interested to see how he gets on.
In terms of the race winner, then if forced to choose, I would opt for Knockgraffon.

3:00 I could have been quite interested in John Constable in this – if Davy Russell were riding him.

However, he’s not – choosing instead to ride Kings Bandit – and I don’t fancy him as much…

The other one I half toyed with, is Born Survivor…

I suspect he is a fair bit better than he has shown in his 2 runs this season – but he is considered an embryonic chaser, so he just might never fulfil his potential over hurdles.

Furthermore, he is held on his last run by Thelingy – and as with Kings Bandit, I don’t particularly like him…

In truth, favourite Geordie des Champs, could easily run away with this.
He was entered for the grade 1 Challow hurdle earlier on the card - and would have been quite well fancied – so could easily be thrown in off a mark of 129.

The other one I could have been interested in, is Court Minstrel…

He is classy enough and well handicapped enough, to win this. However he must have quick ground – and the fact the word ‘soft’ appears in the going description, is enough to stop me from getting involved with him.

Another poor run will see his handicap mark drop further - and he will very much be one to keep an eye out for in the spring…

Uttoxeter

1:40 I did consider taking a chance on Run Ructions Run in this.

Her last two runs have been in better races than todays - and she’s not run too badly.

Despite that, the handicapper has dropped her 3lb – and she has a 7lb claimer on top this afternoon.

At 9/1 last tonight, I felt she could be worth a risk to get the better of favourite, Pure Vision.

She is now a 5/1 shot – a similar price to him – so that has messed up my thinking a bit !

There are a couple of others who could also be dangerous (including Shotovodka, with Tom Scudamore on board), so on balance, I’m struggling to support her at the available odds…

2:15 The two I am most interested in, in this race, have also been well backed…

Tanarpino is the second official eye catcher running today – and I think he has a decent chance.
He caught the eye last time when running a huge race on his seasonal and chasing debut, at Carlisle.

I’m pretty sure he would have won that day, if he had been fully fit – so he must have every chance of going one better this afternoon.

The trouble is, he is going to struggle to beat Alcala on their form over hurdles, form last season.

He is making his chasing debut this afternoon, so his ability to jump a fence has to be taken on trust – though I suspect he will be fine.

It’s not a bad race, but I would have been prepared to take a chance on either of them, at a price.

However, they are both 5/1 shots – which gives combined odds of 2/1…

In truth, I don’t actually think that is unreasonable – just not quite good enough to tempt me in…

2:50 I quite fancied Starkie the last time he ran, in a better race than this, at Newbury.

However his trainer came on TV before the race and said he wasn’t firing – and was therefore unlikely to win !
A pre-race betting drift followed – and sure enough, he ran poorly…

If he is weak in the betting today, then you can probably expect a similar performance – however, if he is well supported, then he is handicapped to win this.

The booking of Brian Hughes also catches the eye and makes me wonder if perhaps the horse has been working a little better since Christmas…
Time will tell, I guess.

Warwick

1:35 Paddy Brennan riding Vice et Vertu in this, catches the eye.

He was on the horse last time when it sluiced up at Ludlow.

In truth, it had become ridiculously well handicapped – and even after a 13lb rise, is not badly treated this afternoon.
I think it is very much the one to beat…

I could have been interested in Carli King – even over a trip that is likely to be on the short side – if he looked like getting an easy time in the lead.

He took apart a race over this course, 18 months ago – and gets in today off a mark 4lb lower.

He is also Adam Pogsons only ride of the day…

However, it looks like he will face some serious competition for the lead – and over a trip that might have him flat out regardless, I suspect today won’t be his day.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on him, all the same…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Newb 12:40 Welsh Shadow 0.25pt win 6/1

Mentions

Newb 1:15 Bob Tucker (C )

Newb 1:50 Ami Desbois (S )

Uttx 1:40 Run Ructions Run (P )

Uttx 2:15 Tanarpino (O )

Uttx 2:15 Alacala (O )

Uttx 2:50 Starkie (C )

Warw 1:35 Vice et Vertu (P )

Eye Catchers

Newb 1:15 Potters Cross

Uttx 2:15 Tanarpino