Daily write-up - Dec 10th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

There is plenty of racing taking place, but it actually feels a little bit quiet, for a Saturday.

I think that’s because whilst there is no shortage of races, not many of them lend themselves to tipping (or betting).

At Cheltenham, there is a 7 race card – but only 3 of the races are handicaps - with the remainder, relatively small-field conditions races.

It’s a similar story at Doncaster, where the best races are the early ones on the card.

The later conditions races may be on terrestrial TV - but I can’t see that many people betting in them.

There are a few opportunities at Lingfield – but it’s relatively low grade stuff, and  needs to be treated with caution. It’s a similar story at Navan…

Furthermore, the prospect of rain this afternoon, makes me even less inclined to get heavily involved.

The ground at Cheltenham yesterday, was riding good – but if a lot of rain arrives today, who knows what it will ride like.

Betting in uncertain conditions, is rarely a good idea…

Consequently, we’ve ended up with just a 3 small tips on the day – and a couple of eye catchers to watch.

I’m sure you all look forward to the Cheltenham meetings (and my ability to find big priced winners !) – but I’m not going to force it – and I just cant see many suitable opportunities today.

Here are my thoughts – and the rationale for the tips…

Cheltenham

12:05 The card opens up with a juvenile hurdle (great !).

Defi Du Seuil was really impressive when winning at the November Cheltenham meeting. That form was franked last Saturday, when Dino Velvet (who was a faller at the last, when in third place) won at Sandown.

Domperignon du Lys was also impressive when winning at Newcastle – but that race wasn’t anywhere near as competitive as the one won by Defi Du Seuil.

My guess is that Defi Du Seuil will win again today – though I’m sure, close to the off, the market will guide…

12:40 He may have won on his chasing debut, last time out - but Different Gravey didn’t impress me as much as I expected…

I was really taken with him over hurdles last season, and I fully expected him to achieve even greater things over fences this campaign.

I guess he still might – but he will need to improve on what he did at Ascot, if that is going to happen.

In fairness, he may not need to improve on the Ascot form to win today.

This is a reasonable race – but his opponents look no better than the ones he beat last time.

That said, based on hurdles form he should have his work cut out to beat stablemate, Whisper.

He is rated 159 over hurdles – and if he ran to that level today, Different Gravey would have to run a personal best, to give him 5lb.

However, Whisper has had a go at fences in the past - and it didn’t work out that well.

My suspicion is that it will be the same story today.

If that’s the case, then Baron Alco and Sizing Tennessee are the two that Different Gravey has to beat – and he really should be up to that (whether he has improved from last time, or not).

1:15 If I could be sure he was fully tuned, I’d take a chance on Baltimore Rock, in this.

He wasn’t that far behind Vaniteux, when both fell at the second last, in last seasons Arkle and he must have a fair chance of beating him today, in receipt of 10lb – provided he is ready to do himself justice.

But we just don’t know on that score.

He won first time out last season – but his trainer Neil Mulholland, has said that he will improve for todays run.

The market will likely advise, close to the off – if he is strong in the betting (say 6//1 or less), it’s probably reasonable to assume that he’s close to his peak.

Outside of those 2, Sizing Platinum is the most interesting horse in the race - but he is second favourite.

He ran really well on his debut for Colin Tizzard, when chasing up the much improved Fox Norton.

The trip looked too far for him next time in the Bet Victor chase, and I would expect him to appreciate being dropped back to 2 miles today.

I could see our old friend Keel Haul, running a big race – but he probably blew his chance of winning, by running well at Aintree last time (and getting himself a 4lb weight rise, as a consequence).

Whilst I could also see De Faoithesdream running better than his odds suggest.

He ran a big race on his seasonal debut last time, behind Un Beau Roman, and there should be little between the two of them today, on the revised terms.

I would expect De Faoithesdream to strip fitter for that run – but he’s running off a career high mark, as a 10 year old; and Paul Moloney has deserted him for Vaniteux.

He would be difficult to tip – but backing him pre race and laying off in running (he races prominently and travels well), is definitely an option…

1:50 The big race of the day – and it is as competitive as you would expect…

Clearly the state of the ground is going to have a significant impact on the result – and to an extent, we have to guess on that.

If it does get really soft, then the chances of Kylemore Lough, Aso, Kings Odyssey and Aloomomo would improve significantly – but I’m going to assume that won’t be the case !

If the ground is riding on the soft side of good (so similar to yesterday), then the 4 I am most interested in are: Module, Bouvreuil, Buywise and Aso.

The last 3 named all ran in the Bet Victor chase at the November meeting, behind Taquin De Seuil (and Village Vic).

Buywise did best of the trio – and could be very interesting today, off a pound higher mark, if the first time visor has the desired effect.

It’s impossible to know whether it will. I can understand connections trying it – but his jumping I has been an issue in the past, so restriction his vision, might back fire.

Only time will tell – though if it does improve him by a couple of lengths, he is probably the one to beat.

Aso finished just behind Buywise in fourth place, in the Bet Victor chase.

His hopes for turning round the form are based on the fact that it was his seasonal debut. He will also appreciate any rain that does fall…

Bouvreuil was a further place back in fifth – and also making his seasonal debut.

Unlike Aso, he would prefer a sound surface – and his hopes rely on that and the fact that Barry Geraghty takes over in the saddle.

It’s difficult to choose between the 3 without knowing the state of the ground.

That said, Buywise is the biggest price – and is the least ground dependant, so he is the one I am most inclined to side with (even if he is the riskiest !).

At the odds, I think he is worth having on side…

I also want to be with Module.

I tipped him last time out when he ran in the Grade 2 Schloer chase on the Sunday of the November meeting.

I expected him to be fit enough to do himself justice in that race – but it looked very much as if it was a prep run for something else.

The big question with him is whether he retains his old ability.

If he does, then based on his form of a couple of seasons ago, he is thrown in today off a mark of 149.

He was rated 164 at his prime and ran third in the 2014 Champion chase.

More than that, he never really looked like a 2 miler – the feeling was always that he would be better over a longer trip (like todays !)

He’s still only 9 years old, so there is no reason why he should be in terminal decline.

His last time out run was inconclusive - but he certainly finished his race with plenty of gusto.

Ultimately, I just feel that he is worth a risk at a big price, because he could be a very well handicapped horse.

Fingers crossed that proves to be the case.

2:25 This looks an impossible race to call, with any confidence.

There are only 6 runners – but all are relatively unexposed and each could be given a chance of sorts.

West Approach and Whetstone have the best form in the book - and they met last time over this course, behind Peregrine Run.

Whetstone did best that day, in finishing second – and they reoppose on the same terms today.

Despite that, I was more taken by the run of West Approach and think there is a fair chance he will reverse the form over todays longer trip (it’s half a mile further).

The trouble is, it’s not easy to be confident about which one of them is the best – and it’s also not possible to be confident that they are the two to focus on.

The bottom 3 runners all arrive on the back of single wins in novice hurdle events.

All 3 represent big stables and could literally be anything.

It’s a bit easier to get a handle on the final horse in the race, Amis Debois.

He’s the most exposed runner in the field – though he does still seem to be improving.

He was certainly quite impressive when he won last time at Haydock – and the runner-up that day, franked the form at Bangor, yesterday.

At the end of the day, it’s one of those races where you pay your money and make your choice.

My choice Ami Debois, at a double figure price – but I’m far from confident…

3:00 This is another very difficult race to call – without knowing the state of the ground – and how much ability My Tent or Yours, retains.

If we knew the ground would be good – and that My Tent or Yours was in top form, then, in receipt of weight from most of his rivals, he would be almost unbackable – but we don’t…

He was disappointing on his seasonal debut at Haydock, when he got stuck in the mud and was well beaten by inferior horses.
If that was all down to the ground (or a lack of fitness), then he could bounce back today.

However, he has always been a tough horse to keep sound – and there must be a chance that he’s simply not as good as he once was…

If that is the case, then the race is likely to be won by either The New One or Old Guard – though both of those have question marks over them.

The former is making his seasonal debut, having been earmarked for a chasing career: whilst the latter has been chasing, but it didn’t go very well.

In short, neither has had the ideal preparation !

You could actually argue that the race is ripe for a shock – and if the ground were to remain quick, then Court Minstrel could be the one to provide it

He’s not that far behind the race principals on official form figure and has had a much smoother build up.

However, he is completely reliant on quick ground to perform at his best – so any rain (whatsoever) would be a big negative for him.

With so many question marks and doubts, this is simply an impossible race to play in…

3:35 This is a very competitive mares handicap – but I’m going to take a chance on Debdebdeb…

She made her debut for Dan Skelton at Kempton in January, having transferred to him from Donald McCain.

She showed immediate improvement, by winning that race, and whilst she hasn’t won in her 3 subsequent outings, she’s run creditably on each occasion.

Her most notable run was when runner up to Briary Belle over todays course and distance, in April.

She was beaten by an upwardly mobile rival, that day – and based purely on that form, she has a good chance this afternoon.

She made her seasonal debut in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow and ran a perfectly respectable race to finish seventh.
She split Taquin de Seuil and Caid du Berlais that day, and both of those went on to subsequently frank the form.

Todays race is a drop in class for Debdebdeb - and she can run from a mark 2lb lower.

She also has Harry Skelton back in the saddle – and I can see no reasons why she won’t run a very big race…

She faces a number of potentially useful rivals – though I’m not sure that any of them can match her level of form.

Midnight Tour and Briery Queen are the two obvious ones to beat – but they both still have something to prove.

At bigger prices, I could see Morning Herald running well; whilst On Demand could be a pre race back to lay in running opportunity. She is an irrepressible front runner, and I can see Charlie Deutsche trying to steal the race on her…

For the winner though, I think Debdebdeb is a pretty good bet.

Doncaster

11:50 It seems a little crazy that such an interesting race is being run before midday…

I’m sorely tempted to take a chance on Kalane in it – but I just can’t see any margin in a price of 3/1.

She ran a nice race on her debut for Amy Murphy at Market Rasen at the beginning of November.

That was over 3 miles – and I think she will be better suited to todays shorter trip.

I make her the most likely winner of todays race – but she faces 2 or 3 potentially dangerous rivals.

Shadows Lengthen is the one that I fear most – and the fact he is trained by Mick Easterby – and is getting backed, makes me particularly nervous !

He’s more than capable of winning a race like this off a mark of 130 – provided he gets decent ground.

Maybe others can see that too – and that’s why he’s strong in the market - but if it is stable money, I would take head.

Wells de Lune is the other potentially big danger.

He is still progressing and did well to win last time. However, his stable (Charlie Longsdon) is struggling a bit for form, at the moment…

I would be relatively happy opposing Always on the Run and Katachenk, as they work their way down the handicap: whilst I’d be a little surprised to see one of the outsiders win.
In short, this race looks most likely to go to either Kalane (straight bat) or Shadows Lengthen.

12:55 This is another really interesting race (which is also being run far too early in the day !).

Knock House is making his debut for Donald McCain and the strength of market support behind him, looks significant.

To an extent, it is backed up by the form book – as if he is ready to do himself justice, then he should be very competitive off a mark of 141.

However, he could have a battle on his hands this afternoon, as Blakemount also seems very well fancied.

He’s not as obviously well handicapped – but is still progressing and ran really well on his seasonal debut behind Apterix.

In the face of Knock House and Blakemount, the two Alan King runners, Sego Succes and Ziga Boy, are weak in the betting.

Both ran very nice races on their seasonal debut at Bangor – and choosing between them today isn’t easy (particularly as both are also course winners).
I slightly prefer the chances of Ziga Boy on the relatively quick ground – even though Sego Success is an official eye catcher !

Valadom appears to have started his descent down the handicap – so I wouldn’t be interested in him: whilst the market suggests the same for Straidnahanna…

The other one of potential interest, is therefore No Duffer, who should be sharper for a recent spin over hurdles.

That said, he is going to have his work cut out to defy his current mark…

In all probably the race rests between the top 4 in the market - though choosing which one will win, isn’t easy.

If forced, I’d go with Blakemount – and he should certainly run his race.

However, it’s probably another race to watch…

1:30 There is potentially a huge amount of pace in this race, which is a shame as Aristo Du Plessis is on a mark he can win from – if allowed an uncontested lead.
However, with Favourite Girl, Eyes of a Tiger and Lycidas in opposition, the chance of his getting an easy time up front, is slim.

In the circumstances, the best option could well be a hold up horse.

Hawk High fits the bill – and he will also love todays decent ground.

He’s a former winner of the Fred Winter hurdle - and not at all badly handicapped, running off a mark of 141.

However, he’s not run this season – and the market seems to be suggesting he will improve for the outing.

That said, Brian Hughes is on top, so that has to be considered a positive.

My inclination would be to wait until close to the off and asses how strong he is in the market.

If he is being supported, then I could see him being up to winning this race…

2:40 I wasn’t overly impressed by O O Seven at Cheltenham last time – and I wouldn’t be rushing to back him at 4/6 in this.

Non of his rival look world beaters – but they are all capable of a reasonable level of form.

Present Man was quite an impressive winner of a fair handicap at Ascot last time, and he could be the one to take advantage, if O O Seven doesn’t live up to market expectations…

3:15 Cliffs of Dover is obviously the one to beat in this – though it is interesting that Joseph O’Brien sends over a couple from Ireland, to take him on…

Maybe they are just sighters, so young Joseph can assess the strength of the UK juveniles – or maybe he means business..!

There is not much between his 2 runners on form – but neither looks top class – so it will be a bit of a surprise if they are good enough to win. Stranger things happen though !
Timoteo is the other one of potential interest, on his debut for Alan King – but again, a lot of guess work would be required to support him…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Chel 1:50 Module 0.25pt win 20/1

BRT Chel 1:50 Buywise 0.125pt win 14/1

BRT Chel 3:35 Debdebdeb 0.25pt win 11/1

Eye Catchers

Chel 1:15 Parsnip Pete

Chel 1:15 Sizing Platinum

Donc 12:55 Sego Success