Daily write-up - Jan 15th

The abandonment of Fakenham means that there are just 2 NH meetings today: at Kelso and Fairyhouse.

That would always be quite manageable – but even more so, as there are only 3 races of interest (though they are all very interesting).

It’s been a strange old week.

I think the write-ups have got back to their very best – pinpointing winners and angles every day.

However, the tipping remains an issue…

I know that part of the problem is with me – as I don’t like issuing tips into fragile markets, risking price crashes and account closures.

It’s a tricky one, as I think there is a danger that I end up issuing the tips which I think you’ll be able to get on…

Hopefully nobody has a problem getting on todays 2 tips – even though they were issued at non standard times.

All they need to do now, is win !!

Here are my thoughts…

Kelso

2:10 I think that Teo Vivo has a very good chance in this…

He won off the same mark as he runs off today, at Musselburgh, just over a year ago.

That was also on soft ground – so provided the ground isn’t really heavy today, he should be fine.

His two other runs last season were off higher handicap marks and on quicker ground – so his defeats are easy enough to forgive.
As is his seasonal debut this campaign, when he was tried over fences at Sedgefield.

That didn’t work out too well, so he was switched back to hurdles last time at Musselburgh and ran a cracker…

He finished third that day – but was running over half a mile further than ideal and on ground quicker than he would prefer.

Back on his ideal conditions today and off a mark he has won from previously, his chance is pretty obvious…

The fact that Brian Hughes is back in the saddle, just increases the appeal – and it really is simply a question of whether anything will be able to beat him.

Looking at the field, there are only 2 horses that worry me: Aristo du Plessis and Sleepy Haven.

Top weight Aristo du Plessis is the class horse in the race – and at his best, he would win this.
However, he has been out of form and I’m not sure he will relish very soft ground.

I’m hoping he will put the pace to the race and set it up for Teo Vivo.
He may be worth saving stakes on, just in case he does bounce back and is able to handle conditions.

The other one that concerns me, is favourite, Sleepy Haven.

He won last time, but is still potentially well handicapped and will have no issue with conditions.

I can’t see a lot between him and Teo Vivo – but just favour the latter at the prices (7/2 and 5/2).

A reverse forecast of the 2 should pay around 10/1 and is also well worth considering.

2:40 This is another cracking little race – and there are 2 eye catchers running in it…

Ash Park is the first of them.

He caught the eye on his penultimate run at Newcastle, before again running well last time, at Musselburgh.

I would expect him to run well again today – though he is starting to clock up the miles and at some point, that will catch up with him…

Final Assault is the other eye catcher.
He also caught the eye on his penultimate run, this time at Newbury – before disappointing in the Newcastle race that Ash Park ran in.

Based on that form he has no chance with Ash Park – but he made a shocking blunder early in the race, which cost him any chance.

I think that run can be ignored – and he has been dropped 2lb on the back of it.

The biggest concern with him is whether he will get home over 2m5f on very soft ground…

The third one of major interest in the race, is top weight Fine Rightly.

He is a class act and could well be up to defying his big burden.

I expected him to run well last time out in the grade 1 Lexus chase – so off 150 in a handicap today, with his jockey taking off 7lb, he is very much the one to beat.

That said, a price if 9/4 doesn’t leave a lot of margin for error.

I think he is the most likely winner – with Final Assault the value call at around 8/1.

Fairyhouse

2:30 I’m a bit baffled as to why Baltimore Rock isn’t favourite for this…

He stands out in the race to me – in fact, I would go so far as to say, that at 7/1, he’s the best tip I’ve issued all season (accepting that probably doesn’t say too much !).

He’s an official eye catcher from last time, when he was badly hampered when still in with a chance of winning.

That was his seasonal debut, and he was very fresh, so I would expect him to have come on for the run.
It strikes me as very significant that Neil Mulholland has sent him over to Ireland for this valuable race – and I can’t believe he won’t be tuned to the minute.

He has an excellent chance, based on his form as a novice last year, behind Douvan – and he still has plenty of potential.

His mark of 142 looks generous, based on what he has achieved – and conditions should be perfect.

In short, the case for him is very strong…

However, what makes him a really good bet, is the opposition…

I’ve said before, but for whatever reason, the 2 mile chasing division in Ireland, tends not to be strong.

There will be the odd ‘superstar’ (like Douvan) but handicaps such as this, are invariably much weaker than similar races run in the UK.

The likes of Ball Darc, Pairofbrowneyes and Peoples Park are fair horses – but nothing more than that.

On old form, a case could be made for both Days Hotel and Turn over Sivola – but they couldn’t be supported with any confidence.

In short, I can’t see any reason why Baltimore Rock won’t run a really big race – and granted a bit of luck, I am very optimistic that he will be able to break the losing run of tips.

Fingers crossed !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Fair 2:30 Baltimore Rock 0.5pt win 15/2

BRT Kels 2:20 Teo Vivo 0.5pt win 7/2

Eye Catchers

Kels 2:40 Ash Park

Kels 2:40 Final Assault