Daily write-up - Jan 29th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Fontwell and Sedgefield in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

After all the drama and excitement of yesterday, it’s back down to earth with a bump, today…

In truth, that shouldn’t really be the case, as there are two Grade 1 races taking place at Leopardstown.

However, there are only 4 runners in each, and whilst that won’t stop them from being interesting races, they are not really races you can bet in…

There is also a Grade 2 novice hurdle – and it has a much better shape for betting.

That said, I still didn’t expect to find a tip in it – but I have done !

The Fontwell and Sedgefield cards are much more mundane.

There is nothing of interest at the former: and whilst the presence of a couple of eye catchers adds interest to the Sedgefield card, the one I was most interested in has already been significantly backed...

Here are my thoughts on the day.

Leopardstown

2:00 I’m a bit surprised to see Peace News as big as 14/1 for this…

He is a horse who had a huge reputation when with Willie Mullins last year – though he never actually ran for him.

Instead he made his hurdling debut at Cork in November, for new trainer Henry de Bromhead.
He won well that day and on the back of that, was made favourite for the Grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse in December.

However he fell at the second last that day, just as he was trying to mount a challenge to the leader.

He was also sent off favourite for the Grade 1 Future Champion novice hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, but he finished well beaten that day.

He is stepped up in trip today – but equally interestingly, a tongue tie is applied for the first time.

If that combination has the desired effect, then I suspect he has the latent ability to win this.

Let’s Dance heads the market – and whilst she is a useful mare, she doesn’t set an unsurpassable standard.

Half cases can be made for a few of the others – but I’m not sure they have the natural ability of Peace News.

He’s a risky one for sure – I think the price justifies a small risk on a horse whom I think could be good enough to win.

2:30 It’s a shame that there are only 4 runners for this, as historically it has been the most informative trial for the Arkle.
That could still be the case this year – but with non of the first 3 in the Arkle betting running, something will have to seriously raise its game in order to shake up the market for the big race.

Of the 4, then Identity Thief looks the most likely winner - provided he has recovered from whatever caused him to pull up, when he ran over Christmas.
Prior to that, he’d looked as good over fences as he was over hurdles – and he was pretty useful over hurdles !

That said, a chance can be given to all 3 of his rivals – so it’s certainly not a race where you could take a strong stance.

Bleu et Rouge won well on his chasing debut – and still has lots of potential.

If Identity Thief disappoints again, then he may be the one who takes advantage…

3:30 It’s never a good situation when the main interest in a race, is with a non runner…

However that is the case with this race – and specifically, Faugheen.

He was supposed to be making his comeback after over a years absence - but he has apparently pulled a muscle and so his return to the track is delayed even further…

That has taken away a lot of the interest from the race, which has now just become a re-run of the Ryanair hurdle, from Leopardstown at Christmas.

Petit Mouchoir comfortably beat long odds on favourite Nichols Canyon in that contest – but there seemed no fluke about it and the expectation is that the form will be upheld today.

There also seems no good reason why either Footpad or Ivanovich Gorbatov should close the gap on the first or second.
All in all then, a race where the outcome appears frighteningly predictable !!

Sedgefield

1:50 Ash Park is the first of a couple of eye catchers running at Sedgefield this afternoon.

He caught the eye 3 runs back at Newcastle, when finishing runner up to Bun Doran.

He ran well on his next run at Musselbugh (just behind Upsilon Bleu); before falling on his most recent outing at Kelso…

He is dropped back in trip today, which is a slightly strange move – and he has been on the go for a long time (which will catch up with him eventually).

That said, he must have a chance today – though I couldn’t be interested at a best price of 5/2…

The race actually looks really trappy, as it is possible to make a case for all 5 runners.

It could well be significant that the race is sponsored by ‘Brian Ellison racing’ – and Brian Ellison saddles the race favourite, Volvalien.

That said, he makes no appeal at 7/4…

If I was to get involved, it would probably be with the complete outsider of the field, Prairie Town.

He is making his chasing debut today, so his ability to jump a fence has to be taken on trust.
However, he is not badly handicapped based on his hurdles form – and really shouldn’t be a 25/1 shot…

3:20 Raktiman is the second eye catcher running on the card – and I could be more interested in him.

In fact, if the 9/1 he opened up at last night was still available, I would have been very tempted to tip him.

However, that didn’t last long and he is precisely half that price this morning.

Again, it’s a tough race to sort out – but that price seems a more accurate reflection of his winning chance.

Going Concern is probably the right favourite: back on more suitable ground – and with a falling handicap mark.
He has also been sent a long way by Evan Williams to contest this race.

That said, Special Catch also has to be of interest on his first start for Malcolm Jefferson.

If Jefferson has improved him, then he could be capable of defying a mark of 135.

Again, half chances can be given to the 3 other runners – so it’s not a race you could feel confident about…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Leop 2:00 Peace News 0.25pt win 14/1 (pre R4)

Mentions

Sedg 1:50 Prairie Town (S )

Eye Catchers

Sedge 1:50 Ash Park

Sedg 3:20 Raktiman