Daily write-up - Jan 28th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

After what can best be described as a dull old week, things really burst into life today !

Cheltenham stage a spectacular 9 race feast of action: with Doncaster providing an excellent supporting card.

Even the meeting at Uttoxeter is significantly better than most of those staged during the mid-week.

We’ve hit the point where mid-week racing and Saturday racing are 2 completely different beasts…

It’s a lot easier to tip on a Saturday as well – I guess the bookmakers aren’t quite so fearful of ‘plot’ horses…

On the flip side, the highly competitive racing makes picking a winner just as difficult – and the overnight rain has confused things further.

Yesterday, the ground at both Cheltenham and Doncaster was on the quick side – after overnight rain, that’s unlikely to be the case today.

Though exactly how soft it will ride, is anyone’s guess…

I’ve ended up with 4 small tips on the day. Mindful of the uncertainty over the ground, I’m disinclined to wade in to deep.

Needless to say, there are a few Mentions: plus 5 eye catchers – and even a Top Pick !

In short, significantly more action than the rest of the week put together !

Here are my thoughts…

Cheltenham

12:35 The ground could well be too soft for Ibis Du Rheu; whilst the trip is probably on the short side for Champers on Ice (though I will be worried about him, if he is backed).

However, even with those 2 fancied contenders out of the equation, there are still at least half a dozen who can be given a chance…

The ‘short’ list consists of Royal Vacation, Singlefarmpayment, Burtons Well, Theos Charm, Dark Flame and Mercian Prince.

It’s not easy to choose between them, but I just favour Theos Charm, as he is the least exposed.

He’s the only one of the 6 not to have previously won over fences, so the handicapper hasn’t had chance to adjusted his rating upwards.

Certainly, I’ll be surprised if he’s not capable of bettering his current mark of 135.

That is his hurdles rating (it was transferred across) and it was achieved in the fixed brush hurdle final at Haydock, where he ran Kruhlinin close.

That is really good form – particularly as it was only Theos Charms third run in a handicap.

Todays trip of 2m5f should be perfect for him – and he won’t have any issue if the rain has got into the ground.

The only concern I have, is with his relative fencing inexperience, around Cheltenham.

That said, he’s a horse who tends to race prominently, so that should help his cause.

It’s not a race you could be confident about – but a double figure price on Theos Charm feels like a fair bet…

1:10 I had hoped to tip Thomas Crapper in this – but the overnight rain has put me off.

He was a real eye catcher on New Years day, over todays course and distance, when he came there travelling at the fourth last – but failed to get home.

He’s been dropped 3lb for that run, which will help his cause – but the overnight rain won’t.

In fairness, the ground is unlikely to be as soft today as it was then – but it will still probably be too soft for him.

Assuming that is the case, then this looks a pretty open race.

I’m not overly taken by the front two in the betting: Shantou Flyer or Spahir Du Rheu; and whilst Aso must have a decent chance, he’s failed to win similar races twice before this season – and off a lower mark.

Walk in the Mill is probably the best of the fancied horses – but he is taking a big step up in class.

The same is true of Foxtail Hill.

He won well at Kempton last time – though the race did fall apart, so the form may flatter him

That said, his jumping was erratic that day – with him diving to the left at most of his fences.

He goes that way round today – and the booking of Jamie Bargary will help offset some of the 9lb rise he got for that win.

He is worth a small play at 14/1.

1:45 Un de Sceaux is likely to be too good for his rivals in this.

He may not be out of the very top drawer  - but he comfortably resides in the one just below it – and that’s a fair bit higher than most of the runners in this race !

In terms of pure ability, then Special Tiara is the second most talented horse in the field – but he needs quick ground – and has also not been at his very best this season.

Uxizandre could be of interest at his peak – but he hasn’t run for nearly 2 years and it will be very surprising if he is sufficiently tuned to win a race of this nature.

Consequently the one most likely to chase home Un De Sceaux, is Top Gamble.
He’s a very straightforward horse – and comes into todays race on the top of his game.

It’s not inconceivable that he could give Un de Sceaux a real race – though he would need to find about a half a stone of improvement to beat him (or Un De Sceaux would need to run below form, by that amount).

Maybe the best bet is Top Gamble with Un de Sceauux, which is a 5/2 shot…

2:15 This isn’t a betting race, but it will be fascinating to see how Thistlecrack gets on – faced with a couple of battle hardened front runners – and the Cheltenham fences…

Smad Place and Many Clouds are clearly planning on serving it up to Thistlecrack – and whilst he has the class to brush them aside, it might not be quite that simple.

To an extent it will depend on the tactics Tom Scudamore chooses to adopt – and whether Thistlecrack is amenable to them.

My guess is that Smad Place will try to make all – and if he doesn’t Many Clouds will !

Ideally, Thistlecrack will sit in behind and just pop his fences, prior to taking up the running approaching the second last.

The issue will be, if he’s not happy sitting in behind…

He was nearly caught out when he was too brave over one of the ditches the last time he ran at Cheltenham, and along side better jumpers, he could really pay a penalty if he chooses to take on his rivals – and the fences.

I have a feeling that we will learn plenty about him this afternoon – if he comes through this test unscathed, then I can’t see him getting beaten in the Gold Cup…

2:50 When Valadom was put in on the opening show yesterday at 50/1, I did think we might have an interesting one at a huge price in this – but he was quickly trimmed to 20/1 and I’m not prepared to take a risk at that price.

In truth, I’ll be a little surprised if his stamina lasts out.

That was the issue twice last season when he ran over this course and distance - and whilst I suspect he has strengthened a little since then, it will probably still be a bit too much for him.

That said, there is a chance he will be able to cling on for a place – and he is likely to once again make an excellent back pre-race with a view to laying in running, play.

In terms of the most likely winner, the Cantlow stands out.

That said, any money for Cause of Causes (also owned by J P McManus), would make him potentially very interesting as well…

3:25 This looks a really open contest and I think it’s worth taking a small chance on the complete outsider of the field, Poetic Rhythm.

Having won a couple of bumpers early in the season (including the one at the November Cheltenham meeting), he made his debut over hurdles in a strong novice event, run at this course in December.

He finished fifth ran day – and improved on that run when finishing third on New Years day, again over this course.

He finished behind William Henry on his December run; and behind Coo Star Sivola  on New years day – however he gets a weight pull with both of them today, which  could see him taking their measure.

In truth, there is a lot of guesswork involved, as rate of progression is far more important than stones and pounds at this point in a horses career – however, it is reassuring to know that the form book reckons he’s got a chance !

The formbook also reckons that Wholestone has got a chance: along with Elegant Escape and Keep in Line.
That said, I would probably be more fearful of the potential of the unexposed pair, Topofthegame and Kimberlite Candy.

It is that kind of race – but in that kind of race, I will always be inclined to take a chance on an outsider…

4:00 15 go to post for this, but very few have a realistic chance of wining.

In truth it looks something of a 2 horse race – with the main question being whether Unowhatimeanharry can confirm Ascot form with Ballyoptic, on 4lb worse terms.

He probably can – but even money about him doing so holds little appeal.
In fact you can get the same price about Ballyoptic placing – and that is far more attractive – particularly as there is a chance you might collect on the win part of the bet…

Looking outside the top 2 in the market, requites a bit of imagination.

Henri Parry Morgan was an eye catcher 2 runs ago (in the Hennessey) but switches to hurdles today - presumably to restore confidence, after a bad fall over fences last time.

On decent ground Cole Harden could be very interesting – particularly in receipt of weight.
However the ground may have gone against him - and I suspect he will only be at his peak, come March.

One who will be at his peak, is Kockara Beau.

Unfortunately he is now 14 years old – so his peak isn’t what it used to be – but it’s still not beyond the realms of possibility that he could be placed.

You can get 25/1 with Skybet, on him finishing in the first 4 (125/1 – EW 1/5 odds) – and that strikes me as a moderately interesting bet…

4:35 The key piece of form for this contest looks to be the handicap hurdle, run at Kempton over Christmas, won by Bigmartre.

He beat Drumcliff by a length that day – and meets him on the same terms today.
That should mean that he will beat him again - particularly as Bigmartre was making his seasonal debut.
However Drumcliffe suffered bad interference at the second last, without which he would probably have won.

In the circumstances it is understandable why he has been installed favourite today.

Whether there should be such a big disparity in odds (3/1 and 11/1) is a different matter – but I would expect Drumcliff to come out on top in that battle.

He should also have the beating of Wait for Me and William H Bonney – who finished 6^th and 8^th respectively in that race.

Wait for Me could have been very interesting on decent ground – but he is another for whom the overnight rain will have done no favours.

Away from that form line, Max do Brazil could be interesting for David Pipe on his UK debut – but the market will almost certainly guide on whether he is expected to go close.

In summary, Drumcliff is the most likely winner – but a poor price.
Bigmartre is the value alternative against him (and worth considering EW at around 11/1).

Doncaster

1:25 It will be fascinating to see how Happy Diva gets on in this.

She was a ridiculously impressive winner last time out at Wetherby – but that was in a class 4 handicap.

The handicapper raised her mark by 16lb for that romp – and in receipt of weight from all of her rivals, she is the one to beat in this.
However, as I said earlier, stones and pounds aren’t what these kind of races are about – they are about rate of progression – and she faces a few potentially very progressive rivals.

Chief amongst them is Give me a Copper, who was a hugely impressive winner, on his hurdling debut at Exeter. He really could be anything.

Strong Pursuit and Constantine Boy don’t have quite as much potential – but they still have a fair bit and could very well be much better than their current marks (which are similar to that of Happy Diva).

There’s a lot of uncertainty in the race – and nothing at a big price which I think is worth a risk.

One to watch, then…

1:55 I really expected to be tipping Cyrius Moriviere in this – but that was because I expected him to be a much bigger price than 7/2…

I find it amazing that a horse with form figures ‘09FUU’ can be installed at such a price in a competitive 8 runner field – but as I’ve said before the market picks up on things nowadays, which it wouldn’t have done in the past…

Basically, it is latching on to Cyrius Morivieres last run, over todays course, when he was very unlucky not to win.

He was clear and going strongly, when his saddle slipped at the second last fence, and his jockey was decanted.

He should have won that race – and based on that form, he has every chance today.

However, he is no certainty – and as that was his third unfortunate incident in a row, there must be a chance that his confidence in jumping, will not be where you would want it to be.

I do think him the most likely winner – but he faces a number of decent rivals.

Upsilon Bleu is an eye catcher from his penultimate run, who went very close to winning last time out (when I tipped him).

He is 2lb higher today – and would prefer softer ground – but he’s in form and still well handicapped.

Yorkist would also prefer softer ground – but he too is in good form and well handicapped – and is unlikely to go down without a fight.

Cases can also be made for Romain de Senam and Gardefort; whilst the other 3 in the race can’t be easily dismissed.

In short, Cyrius Moriviere will need to be as good as he looked last time to win – and any rain during the day will detract from his chance whilst improving that of at least a couple of his main rivals.

3:40 There is no doubt that Bigbadjohn has the potential to be far better than his current handicap mark of 136 – and it’s not too surprising to see him installed a short priced favourite for this.
Certainly based on his 6 length defeat of the now 148 rated Our Kaempfer, he looks potentially thrown in – whilst finishing 8 lengths behind Thistlecrack at level weights is pretty useful form as well !

The trouble is, both of those runs were in very small field conditions races – and this is a big field handicap. The 2 are completely different beasts…

There has to be a chance that he will take the field apart – but at 4/1, I’m prepared to accept that possibility without getting involved financially…

At twice that price, I think Southfield Royale is more interesting.
He too has form which makes him look very well handicapped today…

A 13 length defeat of Coologue (who he meets on 2lb worse terms today); finishing within 4 lengths of the 158 rated Tea for Two in a Grade 1 chase and a fourth placing in a very strong running of the NH chase at the Cheltenham festival.

All of those pieces of form suggest that Southfield Royale has 6 or 7lb in hand of his current mark.

They also ignore the fact that he could still be improving – and that he has a decent 5lb claimer in the saddle today.

All things being equal, that should be enough to win todays race – if Bigbadjohn weren’t in the field !

Outside of the ‘main 2’, there are plenty who I would expect to run well – and possibly make the frame.

Chief amongst them is last years winner, Ziga Boy, who is only 4lb higher today – and who sports first time cheek pieces.

Ballybroker Breeze is another who could run well: whilst Potters Cross could give a bold sight up front and looks over priced at 16/1.

That said, I only expect them to be involved in the finish if both Bigbadjohn and Southfield Royale disappoint.

Uttoxeter

2:45 I tipped Le Rocher at Ascot last Saturday – but the meeting was abandoned.
He is also declared to run at Cheltenham today – but he is taking up this engagement instead.
Both of those races were much stronger than this one – and Le Rocher had a fair chance of winning them – so he must have a very good chance in this.

He has only run 4 times over hurdles in the UK. He won a grade 1 race on his UK debut – and followed that up with another impressive win at Cheltenham on trials day 2014 (3 years ago today).
However, he has clearly had some problems and wasn’t seen on the racecourse again this autumn.

A fourth place at Ascot on unsuitably quick ground was followed by a second behind Clyne in the fog at Haydock.

That race suggested that Le Rocher has not lost any of his former ability – and if that is the case he will take some beating in this…

He’s a horse who needs very soft ground to be at his best - but he should get that this afternoon.

He faces some potentially interesting rivals – but I doubt any of them have got his class.

As you know, I’m not into tipping 2/1 shots – but I think he will win, so I’m happy to make him a Top Pick.

3:20 I was quite tempted by Timons Tara in this…

She was an eye catcher just last week, when she fell at Ludlow, having looked likely to win…

My feeling was that she would be better going left handed (which happens today) – and she also sports first time cheek pieces (presumably in an attempt to aid her concentration).

She should have no issue with the trip or ground – and so could easily run well…

My issues are just that I would have preferred her to be given a little longer to recover from the fall: and she faces geldings today, as opposed to the mares she faced last time.

I wouldn’t be too surprised to see her win today – and it’s interesting that she has been backed early.

If the market support remains strong to the off, then I’d be tempted to take the hint…

3:55 The Fresh Prince is the second eye catcher running on the Uttoxeter card.
He caught the eye on his penultimate run at Stratford, before falling last time out at Aintree.

That was in a better race than todays – and he was still in the lead when he came down (though under some pressure).

The key to him today, will be getting him to relax. He’s a keen going sort and on todays heavy ground, there must be a danger that he will do too much, too soon.

I’m not sure what to make of the booking of a 10lb claimer for the ride.

On the one hand, 10lb off his back is likely to be a big help in the ground: but on the other, the horse is more likely to take control of an inexperienced jockey.

He is maybe one to play in running.

If he settles early, then there is a chance that he will be too good for his rivals: but if he doesn’t, the he’s unlikely to get home.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Chel 12:35 Theos Charm 0.25pt win 11/1

Chel 1:10 Foxtail Hill 0.25pt win 14/1

Chel 3:25 Poetic Rhythm 0.25pt win 16/1

Donc 3:40 Southfield Royale 0.25pt win 8/1

Mentions

Chel 1:45 Top Gamble (w/o Un de Sceaux)

Chel 4:35 Drumcliff (P )

Donc 1:55 Cyrius Moriviere (P )

Top Picks

Uttx 2:45 Le Rocher

Eye Catchers

Chel 1:10 Thomas Crapper

Chel 4:00 Henri Parry Morgan

Donc 1:55 Upsilon Bleu

Uttx 3:20 Timons Tara

Uttx 3:55 The Fresh Prince