Daily write-up - Jan 9th

A little earlier than normal..!

There is just the one NH meeting today: at Doncaster...

...and with relatively low grade racing  - plus rain in the air - it is tempting to take the day off.

However, if I adopt those rules this week, you are unlikely to hear from me again before Saturday !

Instead, I’ll just produce a relatively brief write-up: offering my thoughts on the days 2 main races…

Before I do that however, I would just like comment on yesterday.

As you know, I only produce reviews on the day that I tip – and I didn’t tip yesterday, so there was no review.

That said, I got very close to tipping (though you may not have picked up on that !) – and I also considered a Top Pick (which you probably did pick up on).

The horse I considered tipping, was Albert D’Olivate at Chepstow.

Whilst I thought he might not be quite up to winning – unlike a number of his rivals, I thought he was likely to run his race.

I see horses like him quite regularly, and though I rarely tip them, I do wonder if there is an angle in putting them up EW.

My guess is that whilst they would only win 1 in 7 (or even fewer), they would be placed 2 out of 3 times (hence ensuring no loss).

Approaching the fourth last fence yesterday, Albert D’Olivate still looked to have a chance of winning – and looked sure to place.
However, he made a bad mistake and the jockey did very well to stay in the saddle.

That scuppered his win chance – though he still looked likely to finish third.

However, the mistake clearly affected his confidence as he was hesitant at the next fence, losing momentum. He was caught for third place between the final two fences and ultimately had to settle for fourth…

I know I didn’t tip him – and I didn’t even overly sell him in the write-up – but it did seem to sum up the way things have been going lately.

My feeling is, that until this run of ‘luck’ is properly broken, caution (in terms of limited tips and low stakes) is the best policy…

As if to confirm that, the near Top Pick, Velocity Boy was given a ride, which looked a little questionable…

Despite having success as a front runner, he was held up in last place – and asked to make up a lot of ground, early in the home straight.

He wasn’t up to jumping cleanly under the pressure his jockey was applying – and he took a nasty fall.

I hope it was just poor tactics/a tricky horse, as opposed to any suspicious goings on – though he was quite a big pre-race drifter, which always causes alarm bells to ring…

Anyway, that was yesterday – and this is supposed to be about today !

Here are my thoughts on the 2 best races on the Doncaster card…

Doncaster

1:30 Hammersly Lake is the one to beat in this – but he’s not sufficiently far in front of a few of his rivals to justify a quote of 6/5.

He has to give them all weight – and as a 9 year old, has the least scope for improvement.

Certainly, I would prefer to be on a combination of Ma de Fou, Cyrius Moriviere and Querry Horse, in preference to him – as collectively the odds are very similar…

On official ratings, Querry Horse is virtually the same horse as Hammersly Lake – and that is ignoring his weight for age allowance and the claim of his jockey Jack Sherwood.

He is probably the best bet in the race, at 5/1.

That said, I do like Cyrius Moriviere as a horse – though he does have to overcome a fall and an unseat in his 2 latest outings.

There must be a chance that the priority today is to just get him round safely – so he has to be treated with a degree of caution.

Davy Russell is over from Ireland again – and for just the one ride, on Ma de Fou.

I’m not quite so keen on him as a horse – but, in first time cheek pieces, his chance has to be respected.

Winner Massagot is probably good enough to be a player – but I doubt he will be: whilst Lofgren has plenty to prove and is unlikely to be good enough.

3:10 This is a very open looking race and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see any of the runners win.
That said, I liked the look of Towering best, so it’s a little disappointing (though not surprising !) that he’s already been backed.

He is actually making his chasing debut today – but he has hurdle form which suggests he should be very competitive off todays mark – and there is no reason to think he won’t be able to jump a fence.

One potential issue, is the state of the ground. He wants it quick, so the more rain that falls, the more his chance will reduce…

I Just Know could well get an aggressive, front running ride from Danny Cook – and may be tough to pass. However, I’m not convinced that he is quite classy enough to take this race.

Duke Arcadio should have the beating of Deputy Commander based on form over course and distance in November – but he was disappointing last time at Uttoxeter and I suspect Deputy Commander will again have his measure.

A chance of sorts could be given to all 3 of the outsiders: Royal Milan, Wade Harper and Bertie Lugg. 

That said, the form of Henry Oliver would put me off Bertie Lugg; whilst Royal Milan could still be a little high in the handicap.

Wade Harper should be up to winning a race such as this – but his jumping has let him down on his 3 chase starts this season.

However, if he was able to get that right, then 16/1 would be a good price…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

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Donc 1:30 Querry Horse (O )

Donc 3:10 Towering (C )