Daily write-up - Jan 19th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wincanton (probably) and Ludlow in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

I was genuinely astounded to see Potters Corner sent off a 5/4 shot, in the big race at Newbury yesterday.

There really does seem no limited to how low a price can go nowadays.

If the expectation is that the horse will win – then the price appears to be almost immaterial.

He had 12 rivals to overcome – plus 3 miles and 18 fences to negotiate.

The fact he nearly won, is irrelevant – I just can’t believe that backing at those kind of odds in a race like that, can be the right thing to do…

His returned SP was the same as that of What a Diva, at Market Rasen.

She had a much simpler task, up against 5 relatively moderate rivals.
Again, it is irrelevant that she won – the key thing was the task in hand and the price on offer.

I guess the trick is finding the right ones to back – but that never seems to be quite as easy as finding the right ones to avoid !

So far as today is concerned, then whilst non of the 3 meetings could be classed as outstanding, each contains at least 1 race of interest…

Again, there are no tips – but there are a couple of mentions – and 4 eye catchers to look out for.

Here are my thoughts on the days main races…

Wincanton

2:45 I wouldn’t normally bother previewing a 3 horse race – but this one contains Calin du Brizais, who is an official eye catcher, on his penultimate outing at Chepstow, back in November.

On the strength of that run, he was sent off a very short priced favourite at Market Rasen last time – but he ran no kind of a race.

However, he apparently finished lame that day, so the run can be ignored…

He’s been given plenty of time to recover – and I would expect him to perform much better this afternoon.

In fairness, he will need to if he’s going to get the better of Bishops Court, as that one has won his last 2 and is clearly a horse bang in form.

That said, he is also a horse having his third run in less than a month; he’s carrying in excess of 12 stone – and he’s a 1/2 shot.
I couldn’t entertain him at that kind of a price, and if Nigel Hawke was in better form, I would seriously consider getting involved with Calin Du Brizais.

However, his stable is badly out of form – and that tempers enthusiasm, even at 4/1 and with only 2 rivals to beat !

3:20 The key to this race, is likely to be the Sussex Natioanl , which was run at Plumpton on the 2^nd of this month.

That race was won by Morney Wing: with Dawson City second, Onderun fourth and Sartorial Elegance a late faller, when still in with a chance.

At the revised weights, it is almost impossible to pick between the 4 – and it’s little surprise that they take out nearly 70% of the book for this race.

It is quite possible that one of the 4 will come good today – but in the circumstances, it might make more sense to follow a different form line.

I can see question marks over most of the other runners: the trip is the concern for Abracadabra Sivola and As de Fer; age for Alfie Spinner; whilst Saroque looks to be in decline and Barton Gift is probably just not quite good enough.
I could give Wood Yer a chance, if he bounces back to form (and that fact he hasn’t run for 40 days may well help him): but the one of most interest, is Cyclop.

In truth, he is not sufficiently well handicapped to make a really strong case for – but he’s handicapped to go close and conditions should be in his favour.

He strikes me as an EW possible – though it’s a little irritating that he has been backed in from 14/1 to 10/1 this morning.

Ludlow

2:25 Truckers Highway was an eye catcher on his seasonal debut at Bangor, at the beginning of November.

On the back of that run, I tipped him next time – also at the Welsh track.

He was unlucky to bump into a horse who was the subject of a huge gamble that day – but ran no sort of a race himself and has not been seen since…

That was nearly 2 months ago and it’s difficult to know what to expect from him this afternoon.

If he is back to form, then off a mark 1lb lower than his last winning mark; with the possibility of an uncontested lead – and at a track where he has won before, he must have a really good chance.

However, it would take some act of faith to support him without knowing what when wrong last time (and also knowing that it was no longer a problem).

The best policy is probably to keep an eye on the market.

I would expect him to be supported from his current price of 8/1, if he is expected to run a big race.

3:35 There are a couple more eye catchers running in this: namely Gallery Exhibition and Gone Too Far.

The pair clashed on their most recent outings, in the race won by Fox Appeal (also at Ludlow).

Based purely on that run, I would prefer the chance of Gone too Far.

He was making his debut for David Pipe that day and ran a race full of promise for the future.

However, he didn’t get home then – and over the same trip today,  I would be concerned that the same thing might happen.

He is a nice pre-race back to lay in running option – but I’ll be a little surprised if he comes home in front.

I’ll also be a little surprised if Gallery Exhibition comes home in front.

He is back down to his last winning mark – but there was nothing in his latest run which suggested that he was likely to come good next time…

I’m not convinced either, about overnight favourite, Still Believing – who will have to defy a 10lb higher mark for a win last time, when the race fell apart.

I’m not surprised to see her drifting in the betting.

With those 3 out of the way, from a win perspective, this should really be a race that I fancy getting involved with.

However the market has picked up on the two that I’m most interested in – and I also have slight issues with them both.

I would see Port Melon as the most likely race winner – but he is making his seasonal debut.
He’s won on his seasonal debut in the past – but as Winston Churchill showed on Tuesday, we are guessing on the fitness of these horses, first time out.

The other one of major interest is Capard King.

According to the form book, he is the one to beat but it’s never easy backing one of Jonjos at 4/1 !

In the circumstances, I think it is probably a race best watched…

Thurles

1:45 He is pretty short in the betting, but Westerner Point does have the look of a handicap good thing, in this…

He has been successful in his 2 most recent races – and off higher handicap marks.

Those runs were both over fences – and he is running over hurdles this afternoon – but I don’t think that will make a lot of difference to him.

He could actually be given a chance on his hurdles form, as he was successful at Wexford off a mark of 100, 2 seasons ago – and runs off a mark of 105 today.

However, since then, he has been racing mainly over fences and his 2 most recent wins were off marks of 118 and 123.

He is currently rated 24lb higher over fences than he is over hurdles – and you have to think that he will be able to take advantage of that disparity…

To add to the appeal he is a front runner – and he could well get an uncontested lead this afternoon.

If that does happen, then he is likely to take some catching.

In a race like this, I’m always looking for a springer in the market, who is capable of messing things up.

Hollow Tree is most definitely a possibility. He’s a former grade 1 winner – but he hasn’t been seen on the track for over 2 years, so it’s impossible to know how much ability he retains.

The more obvious dangers are Bilco and Tinos Tank, but they hardly look world-beaters…

This really does look a race that Westerner Point should win – and if it weren’t a minor mid week race in Ireland, he would definitely be a Top Pick.

The best policy will be to monitor the market close to the off, and provided nothing is subject to massive support, get involved with him at that point.

2:15 6 go to post for this years Kinloch Brae – but only 4 of them have a realistic chance of winning.

That said, choosing between the 4 isn’t easy – and I expected the betting to be quite compressed.

My feeling was that Sub Lieutenant was just about the most likely winner – but I think 5/4 is too short a price.
Equally, Smashing is probably the least likely winner of the quartet, but I’m not sure he deserves to be as big as 5/1…

In the circumstances, it’s a bit tricky to advise on a course of action.

In all probability, the state of the ground and the race tactics, will play a big part in the final result – and without knowing either of those, it is probably best to take a watching brief.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Winc 3:20 Cyclop (O )

Thur 1:45 Westerner Point (P )

Eye Catchers

Win 2:45 Calin du Brizais

Lud 2:25 Truckers Highway

Lud 3:35 Gone too Far

Lud 3:35 Gallery Exhibition