Daily write-up - Jan 7th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Wincanton & Newcastle in the UK – plus Cork in Ireland.

It’s quiet for a Saturday – but that’s not a bad thing.
Often there is just too much racing on a Saturday, to do it all justice.

That’s not the case today – and whilst there are a couple of races of interest at both Newcastle and Cork, I’ve focused on the main meetings of the day at Sandown and Wincanton.

I’ve ended up with 5 tips – which is quite a lot (certainly by recent standards !).

A couple of them are at shorter prices than I’ve tended to go for – and one of them is EW.
In these cases, I’ve accepted slightly smaller margins in the hope that we will get more regular returns.

That said, even tipping at 4/1 (the shortest price), probability says that if you issue 5 tips, you have only got a 50:50 chance of hitting a winner…

The biggest frustration of the day, by far, is the fact I’ve not been able to tip Trans Express at Wincanton.

I really fancy the horse – but the price is completely gone (considering it is an open race, with a couple of totally unexposed runners).

I’ve made him a Top Pick to compensate – and there are also a couple of Mentions and an Eye Catcher.

Here are my thoughts.

Sandown

12:45 The right 3 horses head the market for this race, in the shape of Lifeboat Mona, Briery Queen and Desert Queen.
On official ratings, Dessert Queen is the best in at the weights - though she has the least scope for improvement.

That said, she sets quite a high standard and the other 2 are going to have to go some to surpass it.

All 3 should cope fine with todays conditions – and I think it could be tactics that make the difference.

Desert Queen is the only confirmed front runner in the race – and I do like Noel Fehily on front runners (he’s very good at riding a waiting race from the front).

Obviously I would have preferred a bigger price than 4/1 (in absolute terms, I always want bigger than that !) – but realistically, I think it is fair enough.

Of the 2 main dangers, then I fear Briery Queen most, as she is very progressive.
However, she has 8lb to find with Desert Queen on official ratings - and may not be as well suited by the way the race pans out.

Of the outsiders, then Tara Flow is the most interesting – though she too has a lot to find with Desert Queen on official figures.

1:15 A 14 runner handicap – though 5 of the runners have been completely dismissed by the betting (and I’m inclined to agree with that).

Ignoring those, give a more manageable 9 runners to look at…

My initial 4 against the field were Mystifiable, Atirelarigo, Morning Reggie and Gores Island – though it is easy enough to make cases for both Marcilhac and Mercian Prince.

I do like Mystifiable – but he will have his work cut out carrying 12 stone; whilst I struggle to get the fall of Atirelarigo at Kempton out of my mind (his jumping was also a little chancy at Chepstow).

Gores Island looks solid enough – particularly with a 10lb claimer in the saddle. However he is now 11 – and there must be a chance he will have to give best to younger legs.

Morning Reggie is therefore the one I am most interested in – and off a pound lower mark than he won off over course and distance last year, I struggle to see him not running a big race.

The re-application of cheek pieces appears to be a statement of intent – and he should be better for his seasonal debut at Kempton in November.

I guess the question is simply whether he is worth a risk at 9/1, in a competitive field...

I decided he was – and that I would go each way – as I can see no reason why he won’t be there, or thereabouts…

1:50 Similar to with Desert Queen, I’m hoping that tactics will be key in this race – and that De Faoithesdream will benefit from an uncontested lead…

He got an uncontested lead last time at Cheltenham – but only because he was going a lot faster than any of his rivals were capable !

Despite his apparent exuberance, he was still travelling very sweetly when he took an unfortunate fall at the third last fence.

It was too far out to say for sure, but the feeling was that he would have gone very close, if he had stood up.

Sandown is more of a front runners course than Cheltenham, so if he can get into a rhythm today, he could be even harder to peg back.

The tricky thing for him, will be lasting up the final hill – but hopefully he will be so far clear jumping the last, we won’t have to sweat on that too much !

In terms of his rivals, then Garde le Victoire doesn’t look particularly well handicapped: whilst Hollywoodien may need more of a test.

However, both will be dangerous if still within striking distance, rounding the home turn.

Bright New Dawn could be a danger if fully tuned up on his debut for Venetia: whilst Ulck Du Lin is a possible fly in the ointment – as he can front run and isn’t badly handicapped (however his recent form has been poor).

I would only fear Bold Henry if it got really soft: whilst I wouldn’t fear Savello too much, regardless of conditions !

In short, De Faoithesdream has least question marks over him – and, as with Desert Queen, could get the run of the race.

3:00 The veterans final is an absolute cracker – but despite spending a lot of time on it (arguably too much !), it’s very difficult to unravel…

A lot will depend on how the race unfolds. There are at least 3 potential front runners (Pete the Feat, Gas Line Boy and  Loose Chips) – so it will be interesting to see how that works out.

The likes of Theatre Guide and Aachen can also race prominently, so there could easily be some serious pace.

The state of the ground is also likely to be a big factor. There has been 6mm of rain over night – and it is now officially described as ‘Soft’.

That has resulted in the withdrawal of a couple of runners – and it won’t particularly suit favourite, Dynaste…

That said, if David Pipe has got him back anywhere near his best, he is likely to be too good for todays field – I would suggest watching the betting with him (because if connections fancy him he will be backed).

With so many runners and so much uncertainty, I don’t feel comfortable about wading in too deep.

However, I do think that Wychwood Brook has got a chance – particularly following the over night rain.

I have some concerns with regard to his jumping – he’s fallen a couple of times in the past and it was very poor last time (despite him managing to get round).
Sandown takes a bit of jumping because the 7 fences in the back straight are very close together.

If a horse isn’t a slick jumper, it can lose lengths at each fence.

If his jumping is as bad as last time, he won’t win. However, if he can find some rhythm, then he is well enough handicapped to go very close.

Harry Whittington is in good form – and he has booked James Nixon for the ride, who

is decent value for his 7lb claim.

All of the main dangers are at the head of the betting – and I’m not sure I would want to single one of them out.

Wychwood Brook has a chance – and is a fair price – fingers crossed he can get his jumping together and give us a run for our money.

3:35 This is an impossible race to tackle with any confidence, because there are big question marks over the 4 market leaders…

Favourite, Discours D’un Roi hasn’t run for 461 days – and has never run in the UK; second favourite Krugermac hasn’t run for 392 days and is making his handicap debut; third favourite, Chocola is also making his handicap debut – and dropping back half a mile in trip; whilst fourth favourite, John Reel hasn’t run over hurdles for more than 3 years…

It’s not hard to imagine one or two of them running significantly below market expectations – though equally, there is a strong possibility that at least one of them, will prove much better than it’s current mark…

There are also a couple of longer priced horses in the race, which I could be interested in.
Cloonacool is a very strong traveller – who will appreciate todays softer ground and being re-united with Paddy Brennan.

He also wears blinkers for the first time – and if they have the desired effect, he could go very close.
Regardless, he could suitable for a back to lay in running…

Prairie Town is the opposite to Cloonacool in so much as he doesn’t tend to travel in his races – but he does find at the end.
The soft ground and Sandown hill will suit him well – and if he’s still in with a chance turning for home, few will come up the Sandown hill better than him.

He is not a horse to trade in running – but at 25/1, he is a possible for a small EW play…

Wincanton

1:30 It’s not a race that you could ever be adamant about – but I think Oneida Tribe is worth a risk in this, at a fair price…

He was very unlucky last time at Towcester.

He was still travelling strongly at the third last fence, when the leader fell directly in front of him, causing him to unseat.

It’s impossible to say whether it cost him the race – though it did save him a slog up the Towcester hill, so that’s got to considered a good thing !

He was making his seasonal and stable debut for Robin Dickin that day, having transferred from Venetia Williams.

As an ex PTP winner, it’s not too surprising that he was showing improved form on his chasing debut – and there must be a chance that he can prove a fair bit better than his current rating of 105.

In fairness, it’s the kind of race where there could be a few potentially big improvers, with Captain McGinley and Cucklington, the 2 of greatest concern.

2:05 Some Buckle is the only official eye catcher running today.
He caught the eye on his penultimate run at Aintree, when he made a shocking blunder and was immediately pulled up.

He disappointed a little on his most recent run – but that was over 2 miles and I was never convinced about the drop back in trip.

He’s back over 2m4f today – and off a 2lb lower mark, I would expect him to run very well.

The trouble is, despite the relatively small field, this is a tough race to call.

Fox Appeal will have his work cut out, defying a mark 11lb higher than last time (though he’s still not badly handicapped on his old form) – though Orbasa and Walk in Mill could both be dangerous.

Orbasas is a strange one – as Paul Nicholls keeps on banging on about how hard he is to get fit.
I tipped him last time, thinking that it was reasonable he needed his debut run – but Nicholls, maintained that he needed his second run as well.

Maybe he did – and off a pound lower mark today and with Harry Cobden claiming a further 3lb, he is probably the one to beat.

It’s just hard to feel confident about him, in the circumstances…

Walk in the Park is far more straightforward to assess. The question is simply whether he is good enough to defy a 5lb weight rise in a higher grade.

My feeling is, probably not…

There are still a couple of others of interest though, in the shape of Ballygarvey and  Aerlite Supreme.

The former is returning after a long absence – but isn’t badly handicapped; whilst the latter will win a race like this one day – when everything drops right for him…

If there is a bet in the race, it is either Orbasa to win: or Aerlite Supreme EW (assuming 8 go to post).

3:15 This has some how turned into an incredibly frustrating race !

When I studied the form yesterday afternoon, I came to the conclusion that Trans Express was a potentially great bet in this – each way.

His forecast price was 10/1 – and whilst I thought that was maybe a touch optimistic, I would have been very happy with the opening show of 8/1.

However that didn’t last long – and despite the fact that it is a handicap being shown on terrestrial TV, the bookmakers were very slow pricing up the race.

And whilst they dithered, the few who had priced it up, just kept on cutting the price of Trans Express.
By the time I was able to tip, 9/2 was the best price available.

In a 13 runner race, were 3 or 4 can be given a chance based on form: and there are a  couple of unexposed sorts who could be anything – that seems very short.

The trouble is, I can’t see Trans Express not running a race – and going very close…

I’m going to make him a Top Pick – and hope the price drifts a little, as the on course bookmakers won’t have any liabilities on him.

If it drifts sufficiently, then he looks almost guaranteed to at least reach the frame.

In terms of dangers, then Above Board and Bradford Bridge are the 2 unexposed runners; whilst  Fortunate George and Milord are the two exposed ones, of most interest…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Sand 12:45 Desert Queen 0.5pt win 4/1

BRT Sand 1:15 Morning Reggie 0.25pt EW 9/1

BRT Sand 1:50 De Faoithesdream 0.5pt win 5/1

BRT Sand 3:00 Wychwoods Brook 0.125pt win 16/1

DT Winc 1:30 Oneida Tribe 0.25pt win 9/1

Top Picks

Winc Trans Express 4/1

Mentions

Sand 3:35 Prairie Town (O )

Winc 2:05 Orbasa (S )

Eye Catchers

Win 2:05 Some Buckle