Daily write-up - Jan 14th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Warwick, Kempton and Wetherby in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

As tends to be my way on a Saturday, I’ve focused on the days 2 biggest meetings – at Kempton and Warwick.

It always seems a shame to ignore a card like Wetherby, as it’s better than virtually all of the meetings run in the early part of the week – however, there just isn’t the time to do it justice (and the fact there was an early morning inspection planned, was sufficient to ensure I wasn’t tempted).

The biggest issue with the meetings at both Kempton and Warwick, is gauging the state of the ground.

We’re going through a difficult period, weather wise (as well as tips wise !) – with showers, snow and frost.
All of them will have an impact on the ground – but it’s nearly impossible to judge exactly how, until the racing gets underway…

My assumption is that the ground will be on the soft side of good to soft at Kempton – and edging towards heavy at Warwick.

I’ve ended up with just 3 tips on the day, spread across a couple of races. However there are also a massive 8 eye catchers running; plus a handful of mentions - so it’s still quite a busy day.

Here are my thoughts on the days best races…

Kempton

12:55 This is a really trappy race – and whilst there are only 7 runners, I would give all bar Rhapando some kind of a chance (and I would probably give him a chance, if I could be sure that he was fit enough to do himself justice !).

There are 2 eye catchers running: namely Foxtail Hill and Rothman – and a case can be made for both.

Foxtail Hill caught the eye when winning in the pre-season (how long ago does that feel ?!). He has run twice since then – and been beaten on each occasion - but I wouldn’t be too keen to dismiss him in this.

Certainly he was very well supported last time at Haydock – and ran with some credit.

He steps up in trip today –and will get better ground. Both could suit him and he looks a live player.

The case for Rothman isn’t as obvious – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a big race.

He caught the eye 3 runs ago when second at Fontwell, before disappointing slightly at Ascot.

There is a chance that he is only as good as that run suggests – but I suspect he is a bit better and he caught my eye again last time out, when staying on late in a race over hurdles at this track on Boxing day.

I just have the feeling that he is capable of popping up in a race like this – and at a big price (12/1+), he could certainly be worth a small risk.

Ericht and Return Flight have obvious chances – but the market is wise to them.
I’m not quite so keen on Always on the Run – but a case can be made for Cloudy Bob.

He’s been right out of form – but is now back on his last winning mark – and the booking of a 7lb claimer, catches the eye.

2:05 I could be quite keen on the chances of Vibrato Voltat in this.
On official ratings, he is the best horse in the race and the very small field should suit him well.

I don’t think he’ll have any issue with either the trip or ground – and I can see Sam Twiston Davies pouncing late.

However, that does assume there is some pace for him to pounce off…

Looking through the race, I see 4 hold up horses, so there is a chance that things could get messy.

My tendency in such situations is usually to side with the best jockey in the race – and there is a chance that Dickie could steal it on Activial.

Equally however, he could set it up for Vibrato Voltat…

The race just has a bit too much of a lottery feel about it, to get involved with.
That said, I don’t fancy Quite by Chance (who I feel needs a break); and Vaniteux looks a poor favourite at 5/4.

Dutching 2 runners in a 4 horse race isn’t really the kind of thing I could ever make ‘official’, though…

2:40 This race really does look like a complete minefield.

I spent a lot of time on it hoping to find something I could tip – but I ended up with a short list of almost half the field…

To start with, there are a couple of eye catchers: Jaleo and Will o the West.

If the ground was a bit quicker than I’m expecting, I would be very interested in Jaleo.

He did tremendously well to win last time at Lingfield – and I’m sure he was value for more than the 7lb rise he received.

However, I can’t see him being as effective on soft ground – and this is a race where I suspect the winner will need everything in their favour.

It’s harder to make a case for Will o the West.
He caught the eye in the pre-season, at Cheltenham and ran disappointingly on his only subsequent start.

I think the drop back in trip will suit him today – but I doubt he will be good enough to beat a host of potentially progressive rivals.

It’s difficult to know where to start with the others…

I considered tipping Fountains Windfall – but this will be a tough race for a novice to win on its seasonal debut.

Bennys King must have a good chance: whilst Chesterfield is another who would be very interesting - but on better ground than is expected…

Sam Red could be anything – and would have to be feared if strong in the market; whilst Templeross is possibly the value play in the race, at 16/1. He will need to bounce back from a very disappointing run last time at Cheltenham – but he was favourite for that race and it was a fair contest.

Aside from Will o the west, victory for any of the other 6 mentioned, would not surprise me – but equally, I wouldn’t be too surprised if non of them placed !

In the circumstances, I figured it best not to get involved…

3:15 Kruzhlinin won this race 12 months ago – and there must be a chance that he will repeat the dose today.
However, he is 8lb higher in the handicap – and this could be a better race…

If the ground was genuinely good, I could be very interested in Volnay de Thaix.

He has top weight - but his rating of 150 is still 8lb shy of the mark he has run with credit from, over hurdles.

However, he does want good ground – and it is likely that todays going will be too soft for him.

Instead, I would be inclined to take a risk on Our Kaempfer.

I suspect he is probably a well handicapped horse - if everything drops right – though unfortunately for him, that rarely seems to happen…

He unseated last time at Wetherby – but had run really well on his previous outing at Newbury.

That form gives him a chance - though most of the case for him, is based around his efforts over hurdles.

They suggest that a mark of 138 is within his compass – and he is still young enough to be improving.

He has won on his only previous visit to Kempton (over hurdles) and should have no issue with the ground.

The only niggles I have with him, concern his jumping – and the booking of Sam Twiston Davies (which just doesn’t appear that inspired).

At 8/1, he is nearly a tip – but not quite.
A strong mention, instead…

Warwick

1:15 Ut Majeur Aulmes is the eye catcher running in this – and I could be very interested in him…

He should have no issue with the track and should love the heavy ground – and whilst he is running off a career high mark, I think he could be up to defying it.

However, my big issue is the actual weight that he has to carry.

It will take some performance to lug round 12st 3lb in heavy ground – and whilst he is a big horse, I’m not convinced he’ll be up to it.

I would have thought that Victor Dartnell would have viewed it the same way and booked a claimer to ride – but he hasn’t…

That makes me wonder whether he wants the horse to win – or whether he wants it to drop a few pounds in the ratings.
With those kind of doubts, I can’t really get involved with him…

I could see a strong case for Artifice Sivola, who may try and boss the field from the front – however, he is unlikely to relish the heavy ground and he could also face competition for the lead from Makethedifference.

Overtown Express will like the ground – but would ideally want a slightly longer trip.

That said, if there is a lot of early pace, his stamina might prove the deciding factor.

Going Concern is capable of winning a race like this off his current mark – but he doesn’t want heavy ground; and whilst I could see Keel Haul getting placed – I’m not sure he is quite up to winning.

The state of the ground and how the race is run, appear to be the 2 key factors in this – and without being sure on either, it’s impossible to form a strong opinion on the race.

1:50 A cracking novice chase – but more one to watch and learn from, rather than one to get involved with, financially…

Of the 4 at the head of the market, I would be least keen on Mystical Knight – but choosing between the 3 penalised runners (American, Champers on Ice and Pobbles Bay), is very difficult.

Pobbles Bay has the best form of the 3, over fences.

He won a really strong novice chase at Uttoxeter on his chasing debut – and followed up off a stone higher mark at Chepstow, last month.

He still has plenty of scope for progression – and we won’t know how good he is until he is beaten.

Champers on Ice was the best of these over hurdles – finishing third in the Albert Bartlett at last seasons Cheltenham festival.

He won on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter – but that told us nothing.
We should find out today, whether he is going to make the grade as a chaser.

American sits between the 2: the second best over hurdles and the second best over fences !

However, he still has plenty of scope for improvement.

He is quite a fragile horse, so it’s reasonable to expect he will be spot on for this.

If forced to choose, I would side with Pobbles Bay. However, he’s a 7/2 shot – and with all of the runners still having plenty of room for improvement, there is too much guesswork to get seriously involved.

2:25 This is another really tough race, in which good chances can be given to at least half a dozen of the runners…

One of those half dozen, is official eye catcher, Barney Dwan.

He caught the eye on his penultimate outing, when an unlucky loser over fences, at Kempton.

He was also an unlucky loser last time out, again over fences - when brought down at Wincanton. In the circumstances, it’s not too surprising that connections have decided to temporarily shelf his chasing career and send him back over hurdles.

He was a very useful hurdler last season, and won the NH novice hurdle final at Sandown in good style.

He runs off a mark 9lb higher today – but he could well be up to defying it.

Clondaw Cian could also be up to defying higher mark for his last time out win, in a strong contest at Cheltenham.

And whilst Lough Derg Leader didn’t win a particularly strong race last time, he did do it very impressively and has plenty of scope for improvement.

Victory for any of the 3 would be no surprise – but equally, they all have significantly higher handicap marks to overcome…

Instead of siding with one of them, I’m going to take a slightly different route into the race.

In such a tight contest, the importance of a good claiming jockey can’t be underestimated.

Tom Humphries claims 7lb and has done very well on his rides over hurdles for Nigel Twiston Davies this season (winning 5 from 14).

It’s impossible to get a proper handle on his mount, Scotchtown, as he is a relatively unexposed novice.

However, he has won 2 of his 3 runs over hurdles – and showed a great attitude in a narrow defeat last time.

I don’t know if 130 is a good rating for him – but 123 (which is effectively his rating, with his jockeys claim), does look very workable.

It will also mean that the horse is carrying a relatively light weight in what could be gruelling conditions.

My guess is that he will either go very close - or get pulled up !

It’s a similar story with Fourth Act.

He too is ridden by a conditional jockey, who has a good record.

Angus Cheleda has won on 3 of his 4 rides over hurdles for Colin Tizzard – and he claims 10lb.

It’s a bit easier to get a handle on his handicap mark as well.

He is rated 136 over fences (and worthy of that mark) – but gets in off 128 today over hurdles.

In truth, his hurdling form doesn’t warrant a rating that high – but he has improved significantly over the past 12 months.

The question is whether he has improved for the fences – or just improved as a horse…

If it’s the latter, then he is handicapped to win – and that is without consideration of his jockeys claim !

I think it is worth splitting stakes across the pair – with slightly more on the unexposed, Scotchtown.

The only other one in the race that I want to mention, is City Supreme.

He ran up against Lough Derg Leader last time and was well beaten. He’s better off at the weights today however – and whilst that might not see him reversing he form, it should see him finishing much closer.

I was tempted by him EW as I can see him running well – however, I’m not convinced he will handle heavy ground and the prospect of that, caused me to cool on him…

3:00 It’s a little surprising to see Peregrine Run lining up in this…

He has the best form in the race - but a stated preference for good ground.

In fact, his trainer has gone on record saying that the horse will be kept away from deep winter ground, so what he is doing running in this race, is anyones guess…

The trouble is, even dismissing him from calculations, it’s not an easy puzzle to solve.

Ballyhill looks to have his work cut out conceding weight to all bar Peregrine Run – but the other 4 can all be given a chance.

Geordie Des Champs has least to prove – but he is also favourite, and has to give 4lb to Get on the Yagar – and that one is rated 1lb higher than him.

On the book, Get on the Yagar is very much the one to beat – as he also holds Willoughby Court on running at market Rasen.

However there is a feeling that run flattered him – and if he was really fancied, I think Harry Skelton would be riding…

Gayebury is very interesting and really could be anything – though he’s impossible to get a proper handle on.

All this said, the one I like most is actually Willoughby Court.
The trouble is, I can’t come up with any hard facts to warrant supporting him !

My opinion is influenced by the view of his trainer, who clearly thinks a lot of the horse. That would never be quite enough of a reason for me to support him – but it is enough for me not to want to oppose him…

3:35 There may be 20 runners in this, but I’m quite keen on Sego Success…

He is actually an official eye catcher (wouldn’t it be nice if one of those were to win when I tipped it !), from his debut run at Bangor in November.

He has since run at Doncaster – and disappointed there, but I’m hopeful it will be a different story this afternoon…

Sego Success was sent off favourite for this race 12 months ago – when running off a 6lb higher mark.

He only got as far as the second fence that day – but hopefully he will get a bit further this afternoon !

Based on that, you could be concerned about him handling the Warwick track – but he has won round it in the past (the novice chase, at this meeting), so it shouldn’t be an issue.

He is now a well handicapped horse - running from a mark just 1lb higher than his last winning mark (when he bolted up).

He will have conditions to suit – and is sporting first time blinkers.
The blinkers are particularly interesting , as he was wearing cheek pieces for the first time, when he last won (so hopefully he will again response positively to the fitting of head gear).

Wayne Hutchinson takes the ride – and there really are no negatives.

Granted a bit of luck (and you always need that), I feel he really should go close…

As you would expect, there are a host of potential dangers – but there are 2 who I am most concerned about.

Shotgun Paddy has won and finished third in previous runnings of this race – and must have a big chance today, off a lower mark.

Similarly, Russe Blanc won this race 12 months ago – and whilst he is off a mark 7lb higher this afternoon, the claim of his jockey off-sets that.

I could see both of them running very big races, once again…

The only other one I want to mention, is the second eye catcher in the race: Bob Ford.

This is the first time in a while that he has had conditions to suit and I could see him running well – particularly if he gets into the lead.

He’s a very big price and would certainly lend himself to a pre race back to lay in running – or possibly even a small EW bet.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Warw 2:25 Scotchtown 0.25pt win 9/1

BRT Warw 2:25 Fourth Act 0.125pt win 16/1

BRT Warw 3:35 Sego Success 0.25pt EW 14/1

Mentions

Kemp 12:55 Rothman (O )

Kemp 2:05 Vibrato Voltat (C )

Kemp 3:15 Our Kaempfer (O )

Warw 1:50 Pobbles Bay (O )

Warw 3:00 Willoughby Court (S )

Eye Catchers

Kemp 12:55 Foxtail Hill

Kemp 12:55 Rothman

Kemp 2:40 Will o the West

Kemp 2:40 Jaleo

Warw 1:15 Ut Majeur Aulmes

Warw 2:25 Barney Dwan

Warw 3:35 Sego Success

Warw 3:35 Bob Ford