Daily write-up - Jan 8th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Chepstow and Fontwell in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

The low key theme of the past week continues...

That said, there is actually a grade 1 race taking place at Naas – but it is a relatively uncompetitive novice hurdle, so not really a betting contest.

Maybe not too surprisingly, there are no horses compelling me to tip them this afternoon – and I’m not inclined to force anything.

There are only 2 or 3 races taking place which I would even consider tipping in – but I don’t have a sufficiently strong fancy in any of them.

I’ve tried to identify a few horses/angles of interest in the write-up – so it will be a case of monitoring the markets to see if any opportunities arise.

There are 3 official Eye Catchers running – two of them in the same race: and a few Mentions, which can be monitored – but aside from that, not a lot !

The week ahead of us also looks like being quite dull (we are clearly in the mid-winter !) – with just 8 meetings scheduled to take place on the 5 days prior to next Saturday (and I doubt there will be many races of interest).

The way the fixture list is put together, does frustrate at times.

Anyway, here are my thoughts on the days most interesting races…

Chepstow

2:30 Bugsie Malone is the first of the days Eye Catchers.
He caught the eye last time at Newbury, when running really well in a better race than this.

He was backed to do so, as well – so is clearly considered better than his current mark.

The issue with him today, is the state of the Chepstow ground. It is described as ‘Heavy’ - and heavy ground at Chepstow, is very heavy indeed !
There is no way of knowing whether he (or indeed most of the todays runners) will handle it, until it is too late.

I have a suspicion that it won’t suit him – but that is based on limited evidence.

It does mean that I’m disinclined to get involved with him however, particularly at a price of 9/2.

Krakatoa King has been installed as 11/4 fav – and that is understandable.
He is a giant of a horse and should have no issue, ploughing through the mud.

He tends to get caught out when the pace of a race increases – but there is a fair chance there won’t be any pace increase this afternoon !

He is probably the right favourite - and if anything is going to hack up this afternoon, it is likely to be him.

The other one of major interest, is Albert D Olivate.
He has already shown that he can handle the Chepstow mud, so has that advantage over his main rivals.

He disappointed last time, for no obvious reason – but if you took out that run, he would probably be vying for favouritism this afternoon.

7/1 is a fair price for him – and I would expect him to reach the frame (assuming he doesn’t run inexplicably poorly again !)

Lady Robyn is the final one worthy of a mention.

She is making her chasing debut this afternoon after just 2 runs in bumper and 2 runs over hurdles.

She has performed well in PTPs, so it seems significant that she got her handicap mark over hurdles prior to making her handicap debut over fences.

The ground has to be a concern for her (despite having run well on soft in PTPs) - as does a 100 day absence.

But if she is backed, I would take notice (currently 7/1).

3:30 There are a couple more eye catchers running in this race, in the shape of Ubaltique and Keep Moving.

The former caught the eye on his penultimate run at Wetherby, before running really well, on his latest outing at Haydock.

He should handle todays ground – though is a small horse to be carrying nearly 12 stone…

Keep Moving is an absolute giant – and I suspect he will handle the ground – but I also suspect he wants further than the minimum trip.
That said, the ground is likely to put stamina at a premium, so if he is ever going to shine over 2 miles, it is likely to be today.

In truth, he is impossible to be adamant about.
I suspect he will probably finish well beaten - but I wouldn’t be completely amazed if he were to run really well (or even win !).

At 16/1, he might be worth the tiniest of risks for the really adventurous amongst you !

In truth, this isn’t the deepest of races – and I can understand why After Hours has been backed down into short priced favouritism.

That said, I think he is now too short (I would be complaining about it if I really fancied him !).

The trouble is, he has very strong form in the book, from his last 2 runs (on both occasion he finished second to very well handicapped horses).

As we see on a daily basis, this kind of form results in horses being very well backed early.

I suspect he will drift from his current price of 6/4, nearer the off…

The only other one worthy of a mention, is Capilla.

He is a headstrong front-runner – but he will handle the ground and is very well handicapped.

I would have some concerns about him getting home – but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him trade relatively low in-running.
He is a classic back to lay in running option, for those of you who like to play that game.

Fontwell

2:10 We were on Bear Rails last time, in the abandoned race that took place at Wincanton on Boxing day.

I have to be honest and say that I was relieved when the race was abandoned because even before he was baulked and brought down, I thought he was struggling.

It was very early in the race – so it’s impossible to be adamant – but the signs weren’t good.

In the circumstances, I couldn’t be with him this afternoon – and as he’s favourite, that should provide an opportunity.

However, I am struggling to see where it is…

Amiral Collognes is another horses with whom I am quite familiar – and he ran pretty well last time at Market Rasen.

He has been raised 2lb for that run – but has a 5lb claimer in the saddle to off set that.

He is probably the one to beat – but I suspect he is not straightforward and a price of 4/1 is hardly compelling…

The final one worthy of a mention is So Fine.

At his peak he was rated much higher - but all of his best performances have been over hurdles.

That said, he was in the process of running a fair race over fences last time, until he was sharply pulled up.

I didn’t actually expect to see him racing again after that, so am surprised that he is returned to the track within a month.

Dickie is back on board – and if he is right, then I would expect him to win this.
The trouble is, it is quite a big ‘if’…

3:10 Drumviredy caught my eye last time as she sauntered into the lead at the bottom of the Towcester hill.

However, no sooner had she hit the front, than she started to struggle – and she ultimately finished a well beaten fourth.

It did look as if it was too much of a test for her that day – so it is interesting to see that she is dropped a couple of furlongs this afternoon.

She will also find the Fontwell finish a lot tamer than the Towcester one !
She strikes me as the most solid option is what is a pretty open race.

However, a chance of sorts could be given to just about all of her rivals – so at 4/1 in a 6 horse race, the value in her price has to be limited…

Naas

1:50 This grade 1 event looks at the mercy of the Gigginstown owned Death Duty.
He is unbeaten in 3 novice events this season – and is already a short price favourite for the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival

That race is over 3 miles – and todays event is over 2m4f. However Death Dutys 3 wins this season have all been over the shorter trip, so there is no reason to think it will be an issue.

The most obvious one to follow him home, is Augusta Kate.

She was very good in bumpers last season (she was actually sent off favourite for the Cheltenham bumper) and hacked up in her only outing over hurdles, back in November.

It seems significant that Ruby has chosen to ride her in preference to the other Willie Mullins trained runner, Turcagu.

It’s not an easy race to find an angle in to, with Death Duty by far the most obvious winner and Augusta Kate most likely to follow him home.

That said, Augusta Kate is provably an artificially short price because Ruby is on board.

For forecast purposed (or betting without the favourite), Stand up and Fight may be the better option.

He ran well when third to Death Duty at Navan in November, on only the third outing of his life.

He should still have plenty of scope for improvement - and having Barry Geraghty taking over in the saddle can only help.
He’s 9/1 in the ‘without’ market – and that may be worth considering…

2:20 Velocity Boy looks by far the most likely winner of this – even if he is too short in the betting to consider backing.

He was decent over hurdles – and based on his 3 runs in novice chases this season, he looks like being just as good over fences.

He is up against far more exposed rivals today – many of whom won’t be ideally suited by the 2 mile trip.

He will handle the trip fine – and still has plenty of scope.

According to the betting, Boher Clare is his chief rival – but he is exposed and shouldn’t really be good enough.

Pulled Muscle is the potential joker in the pack.

His initial runs in a bumper and over hurdles suggested that he might be very good but he’s not gone on from that and it would take an at of faith to support him, based on his latest run.

Velocity Boy is potential Top Pick material – but a relatively low grade race in Ireland doesn’t really lend itself to that kind of confidence !!

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon !

TVB

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Chep 2:30 Albert Dolivate (O )

Font 2:10 So Fine (S )

Naas 2:20 Velocity Boy (P )

Eye Catchers

Chep 2:30 Bugsie Malone

Chep 3:30 Ubaltique

Chep 3:30 Keep Moving