Daily write-up - Jan 22nd

The abandonment of both Fontwell and Hereford means that there is just the one NH meeting today, at Leopardstown in Ireland.

It’s a slightly strange card as well, in so much as it is dominated by one race, the coral.ie hurdle – and that race is dominated by one horse, Heartbreak City…

In fairness, there are a couple of other handicaps on the card which are reasonable races – though they both look quite trappy, so I would be inclined to tread with caution.

Here are my thoughts on the 3 races…

2:40 This race looks most likely to go to one of the market leaders: A Toi Phil or Stella Notion.
The former put up a really smart performance, when winning a Grade 2 novice chase at Punchestown in November and on the back of that, was sent off 10/3 for the Grade 1 Drinmore chase at Fairyhouse, early in December.

He ran disappointingly in that race – and also in the 3 mile Grade 1 novice chase run at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting (where he may not have stayed the trip).

The reality is, he’s probably not quite a Grade 1 chaser – but he certainly looked a Grade 2 chaser and that being the case, he is potentially very well treated off a mark of just 143.

Stella Notion has no pretensions to being a graded animal – but he is a very good handicapper and ran a massive race in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.

He led most of the way that day, jumping really well – and only fading out of things close home,

Todays drop in trip will help him and off a mark just 2lb higher, I would expect him to go very close.

If there is to be a ‘shock’, then maybe Vukovar or Total Recall will be the one to provide it.
The former is having his first run for Gordon Elliot, having been unable to quite deliver on expectations, when trained by Harry Fry in England.

The belief then was that he was a Grade 1 chaser, so if Elliot can find the key, then he will look very well handicapped off a mark of 144.

Total Recall has run just 4 times over fences and failed to get round on 2 occasions, so he comes with risks.

However, he also has untapped potential – and if everything went right, he too could be capable of going close.

If you want a horse to be placed, then I would suggest Stella Notion: however, I would see the other 3 as more likely winners (though also more risky).

3:10 It’s not often that you see the betting for a valuable 23 runner handicap dominated in the way that Heartbreak City is dominating the betting for this.
That said, it’s not often that you see a horse who could be so far ahead of his mark, running in such a race.

Heartbreak City runs off a mark of 123 today – and based on his last hurdle run, when he won cosily at the Galway festival off a mark of 118, that looks perfectly fair.

Based purely on that run, I would expect him to be quite a short priced favourite this afternoon (maybe 4 or 5/1).
However, following his win at Galway, Heartbreak City won the Ebor on the flat at York, by 4 lengths, off a mark of 103. The Ebor is the most valuable flat handicap run in England.

He then followed that up, by running a head second in the Melbourne Cup. The Melbourne cup is the most valuable flat handicap run in the world !

On the back of those 2 runs, I would expect Heartbreak City to now have a flat handicap rating of around 115.

Considering jumps ratings are roughly 45lb higher than equivalent flat ratings, he could easily have 35lb in hand of his current hurdle mark.
In short, he is the proverbial handicap good thing…

Ofcourse, that is assuming he safely manages to negotiate 8 flights of hurdles – and doesn’t get stuck in traffic.

However, the relatively decent ground will help – and he has performed in big fields over hurdles in the past.

I think it can be argued that even at 9/4, he is a fair bet – and I certainly wouldn’t want to oppose him…

Almost certainly, his 2 biggest rivals are the 2 horses behind him in the betting: Golden Spear and That’s a Wrap.
It’s interesting that the former is also trained by Tony Martin; whilst the latter is owned by J P McManus.

Both of those facts would make me a little nervous about piling into the favourite - because with a straight bat, it would be very tempting to do so !

3:40 This is not a race I would feel at all confident about, but I do think that Elishpour is potentially quite interesting, at a big price…

He is trained by Alan Fleming, and he is having a poor season – so that would temper enthusiasm.

Also, the horse hasn’t shown much for a while – though there was a glimmer in his most recent run at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That was his first run over hurdles for 18 months, so he is likely to be sharper for it.
He is stepped up in trip significantly today and that should suit a horse who has been placed in the Ascot stakes on the flat, over 2m4f.
Again, that was quite a long time ago – but it was off a rating of 96, which suggests that his current hurdles rating of 121 should be well within his capability.

He is definitely a risky one – and it is quite possible that he will finish unplaced.

However at 20/1 he might be worth tiny play, just in case…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.

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Leop 2:40 A Toi Phil (O )

Leop 3:10 Heartbreak City (P )

Leop 3:40 Elishpor (S )