Daily write-up - Jan 11th

A hatrick of early write-ups… – beyond a coincidence ?!

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon – at Taunton and Hereford.

When I looked at the Hereford card, I was optimistic that I might get a day off, as there is little to recommend it…

However, Taunton stages a couple of interesting handicaps – so it’s a similar format as for the past couple of days…

And in fairness, they have gone pretty well.

A first and a second for the two mentions on Monday, was followed by a first and a second for the two mentions yesterday.

I feel as if I might be finding a bit of form – though committing early not to tip, certainly helps with that.

The whole tipping process can be incredibly frustrating and time consuming, during the mid-week – with the markets both tight and fragile.

Knowing that I won’t be tipping, enables me to focus on dissecting the races – and hopefully you can then use the output from that, to pick off opportunities throughout the day.

Coolking was the obvious one yesterday: whilst Song Saa traded at 1.5 in running - before failing to get home, in the same race.

Petite Power went very close (1.1 in running) – and was only beaten by one of the nominated dangers: whilst Crievehill was another possible (effectively on a short list of 2, in Sea Walls race)...

It’s was all there, if you were prepared to look for it !

As for today, then there isn’t anything which I feel quite as strongly about.

The 2 races at Taunton look most likely to go to fancied runners – though there are a few longer priced runners who could perform better than their odds suggest.

Here are my thoughts on both races – plus one to keep an eye out for at Hereford…

Taunton

2:10 I’ll be a little surprised if this race isn’t won by one of Calett Mad, Qualando or Roc D’Apsis.

The case for Calett Mad is pretty strong.

He’s only run twice in the UK and he’s performed really well on both occasions: winning at Newcastle and then finishing runner up to the well handicapped Fox Appeal, at Ludlow.

He’s been raised 5lb for his latest run – but he is a progressive 5 year old and I doubt very much that his new mark is beyond him.

The only potential issues I can see are the quick ground – and the relatively tricky Taunton fences (he made a couple of mistakes at Ludlow).

However, if he handles the ground and jumps round cleanly, he will take a bit of beating…

That said, Qualando is a potentially well handicapped horse over fences – so he might just be able to give him something to think about.

The issue with him, is that he is very inexperienced, so again, his ability to jump round safely has to be taken on trust.

The third one of major interest, is Roc D’Apsis.
He is actually an official eye catcher - and we were with him last time, when he disappointed in a better race at Wincanton.

It’s interesting that he’s had nearly 2 months off the track since that run – and he is a horse who can run well fresh.

The absence of Adrian Heskin in the saddle is a bit of a puzzle (to me, anyway !) – but Richard Johnson isn’t a bad replacement !

To an extent, it depends on what has happened with him during the past two months (he might have had an issue that required treatment/time - or he might have had a breathing operation, for example) – as that could work either way.

Without that knowledge, he is arguably the value call in the race at 10/1 – though I would expect the market to guide on whether he is actually expected to do himself justice.

Of the other 4 in the race, then I was disappointed by Tempestatefloresco last time – and whilst the ground may have been an excuse, I’m not totally convinced.

Red Devils Lads and Troika Steps are both horses we have been interested in this season – but they both like to front run, so I can’t see them doing each other any favours this afternoon.
The final runner is Tindaro – but the trip looks too far for him and he isn’t that well handicapped either.

2:40 This isn’t an easy race to assess, with a number of unexposed horses in opposition…

Volpone Jelois, Resolution Bay, Give Him Time and Forecast, are all making their handicap debuts – whilst Midnight Tour and Sleep Easy, can only muster 3 previous handicap runs between the pair of them.

Trying to establish which of the 6 is best handicapped, is nearly impossible to do…

It’s far easier with Winning Spark and Space Oddity – but I suspect that neither have a great deal in hand of their current marks.

They may set the standard for the race – but that standard looks surpassable…

In truth, there is too much guesswork required for any confidence, but my feeling is that Resolution Bay is the most likely winner.

However, his price of 4/1 is too short to seriously consider…

Volpone Jelpois is the other one of major interest – but again, a price of 7/2 is far too short, bearing in mind the amount of guesswork required.

The best ‘value’ may eventually turn out to be, Winning Spark – as I can see him drifting, due to his exposed profile.

I would expect him to run his race, and would rather back him EW at 16/1 (if he reaches that price), than any of the others to win, at 3 or 4/1…

Hereford

3:20 Just a really quick mention for Tutchec in this…

It’s impossible to construct a case for him based on recent form – but based on old form, he is absolutely thrown in off a mark of 83.

This is his fourth outing for Harry Whittington – but his first over 3m+ on soft ground.

He’s not been seen for a month, so there is a chance something has been ‘tweaked’ in the interim.

He also gets first time cheek pieces – and the Harry Whittington stable is now in much better form than it was when he ran previously.

He’s hugely speculative – but may be worth a tiny play at 16/1, for the more risk embracing, amongst you..!

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Here 3:20 Tutchec

Eye Catchers

Taun 2:10 Roc D’Apsis