Daily write-up - Mar 20th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Taunton and Southwell.

I had minimal expectations for the day – and whilst there isn’t a lot of quality, there are a couple of interesting races at Taunton – and also a couple of interesting horses running (one of which is an official eye catcher).

Obviously, the action is very different from that of last week, at Cheltenham – and it requires a different way of thinking, when trying to find the winners.

That said, there are far more days like today, during a season, than there are days like last week !

Maybe not too surprisingly, given the quality of the racing, there are no tips – but there are a couple of Mentions - plus the eye catcher.

Here are my thoughts on the day.

Taunton

3:20 I would be quite keen to oppose A Little Magic in this…

He’s not a particularly big horse and he is set to carry 12st 7lb – which is a lot of weight.

He tends to front run (he’s quite head strong), so his chances won’t be helped by the fact that Back by Midnight is also in the race (as he too likes to lead).

The final negative with him, is that he’s returning after 2 months off the track, so may not be fully wound up.

In the circumstances, I would be inclined to look elsewhere for the winner…

Mr Medic and Lou Vert, are the 2 obvious ones…

The former is also returning after a break - but had looked quite progressive when notching a double in the autumn.

Assuming he is ready to do himself justice, he is probably the one to beat.

Lou Vert ran well on his chasing debut at Ludlow, last month.

He still has plenty of scope for improvement and at twice the price of Mr Medic, is the better value.

The other one of interest in the race, is Helium.

He hasn’t been running too badly recently – and is handicapped to win this.
However, he is now into the veteran stage, so it’s quite possible that his is regressing.

That said 10/1 is a price which possibly justifies a small risk…

3:50 I like the look of Beltor in this.

I tipped him at Kempton, over the Christmas period in a stronger race than this – and approaching the last, it looked like he was going to win.
However, a hesitant jump cost him momentum and by the time he got going again, the race was over…

He’s only run once since then, in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury, and he was far from disgraced in finishing seventh – particularly as Newbury isn’t a track that would particularly suit him.

What he needs is a sharp track and quick ground – and that is precisely what he will get this afternoon.

His handicap mark isn’t spectacular – but it is workable, and I would expect him to go very close…

In terms of his rival, then I suspect the handicapper may now have got to Hint of Mint; whilst Wishful Dreaming probably needs more of a test.

Amour de Nuit is a big danger, based on his flat form – but less so, on his hurdles runs.

That said, as a handicap debutante, there is a chance he will show significant improvement this afternoon. The market is likely to advise on his chance.

4:50 Lady of Longstone was an eye catcher on her penultimate run at Chepstow – and I reckon she has a decent chance in this…

She didn’t feature on her most recent outing – but that was in a strong Pertemps qualifier at Exeter where not only did she face competition for the lead, she also wouldn’t have been suited by the soft ground.

This is a significantly weaker race – which will be run on much more suitable ground – and she could well get an uncontested lead.
If that happens, then she is handicapped to win…

She won a better race than this at Haydock, almost exactly 12 months ago, off a 3lb higher mark – so really it boils down to whether she is ready to do herself justice this afternoon.

The fact that she is David Pipes only runner on the card – and that Michael Heard is in the saddle, suggest that she will be doing her best…

In terms of her rivals, then Midnight Cowboy and Avithso are the obvious ones – though I suspect that a peak form Lady of Longstone would be too good for them.

Bistouri D’Honore and Plan Again strike me as potentially more dangerous – particularly the latter on his first run for Johnny Farrelly

Certainly both warrant careful monitoring in the betting…

Southwell

3:40 I first spotted Camron De Chaillac, when he ran in a novice hurdle at Chepstow, at the beginning of November.

It struck me as a run with a handicap mark in mind, which made him particularly interesting on his next run, in a handicap at Taunton…

I expected him to be strongly supported in the market that day – but he wasn’t.

Despite that, he still ran really well, to finish third of 15.
He didn’t show as much on his next run, at Huntingdon – but was then dropped back in trip for his latest run, and blinkers were also applied.

I suspect he would have won that race – but there was a lot of rain, which turned the ground heavy – and he bumped into a rejuvenated Sea Wall…

In the circumstances, he lost little in defeat.

He runs off the same mark today – and the ground should be more suitable.

He also has Robert Hawker in the saddle, replacing Ciaran Gethings (and claiming an additional 2lb).

I struggle to think that he won’t run a big race – the question is whether he will be god enough to win…

That’s always difficult to answer in these low grade contests, because there is always the chance that one of the runners will show significant improvement.

Ryeollian and Hill Fort were well backed last night: whilst Beggars Wish is a more obvious danger.

However, I would still be a little disappointed if Camron de Chaillac couldn’t at least place…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

None

Mentions

Taun 3:50 Beltor

Sthw 3:40 Camron de Chaillac

Eye Catchers

Taun 4:50 Lady of Longstone