Daily write-up - Mar 11th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Sandown, Hereford and Ayr in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

With Cheltenham just around the corner, it’s not too surprising that it’s a very low key day.

There isn’t too much of interest at Ayr or Gowran.

However there are a couple of decent races at Hereford – and despite the racing not being top class, most of the Sandown races and interesting and provide some betting opportunities.

I’ve ended up with 3 tips on the day, spread across 2 races – plus a few Mentions.

Here are my thoughts on the main races.

Sandown

1:20 Juvenile hurdles aren’t really my thing, but I was tempted to take a risk on Deauville Crystal in this.

That’s primarily because she is trained by Nigel Hawke – and his horses have been in tremendous form over the past few weeks.

Deauville Crystal won her most recent race at Sedgefield, just under a month ago – and an opening mark of 112 looks perfectly fair.

She’ll handle the ground – and sets a reasonable standard.

I guess the main issue with race, is that a fair bit of guesswork is required to solve it.

The bottom 3 runners don’t look of much interest – but the top 5 can all be given a chance of some sort.

Zalvados appears to be the one to beat, on the strength of his most recent run at Haydock – however, he’s been installed 2/1 favourite.

Hygrove Percy is the other one of major interest, on his return from a near 6 month absence - but again, the market is not taking any chances with him.

The answer could be an each way bet on Deauville Crystal at the general 6/1. There is probably a bit of margin in the in price, from a win perspective – and I would say she has a better than 50:50 chance of placing.

That said, I am guessing to an extent on the ability of most of the runners – and a non runner would mess up place terms…

1:50 This is a fascinating race – and I’m sure it will contain plenty of future winners – but it’s not one you can bet in, with any confidence.

Many of the runners are potential big improvers - and the winner is highly likely to post a personal best, in victory.
The 2 that interest me most, are Minella Awards and Man from Mars.

The former was well thought of last year, when under the care of Nicky Henderson.

He was narrowly beaten by the now 146 rated Champers on Ice, at Newbury  – and purely on that piece of form, is very well handicapped on a mark of 128.

He is now trained by Harry Fry and ran reasonably on his seasonal debut at Plumpton early in January.
He’ll need to build on that run - but I suspect he will do just that.

Man from Mars has only run 3 times over hurdles – and he has improved with each outing.

It’s not easy to quantify his ability, but an opening mark of 123 probably under-estimates it.

He has the beating of Crystal Lad, on his most recent run at Huntingdon, and I can see him going very well.

In truth, a case of sorts can be made for most of the field – so confidence is always going to be limited.

It’s probably a race best just watched, with a view to spotting winners – both for the remainder of this season – and next year, over fences…

2:25 Upswing is the one who appeals most in this…

He is definitely handicapped to win – and he ran really well last time out (thereby signalling a return to form).

The issue with him is that he may be developing his own ideas about the game – as it is notable that his 2 decent performances this season, have occurred when new head gear has been applied.

At Cheltenham in November, he ran well in first time blinkers.
He followed that up with a couple of poor runs (again when wearing blinkers) – before bouncing back last time at Kempton, in first time cheek pieces.

The cheek pieces are back on today – but whether they will have the same effect, is a different matter…

In fairness, the 2 disappointing runs were in quite hot races – and todays race isn’t of the same standard.

He could be worth a risk – and 5/1 isn’t too bad a price – but I do think it would be a risk…

What does make him attractive however, is that this isn’t the strongest of contests, as most of the runners are either old - or out of form – or both !

The exceptions are Willoughby Hedge and Shanroe Santos.

The former won well last time – but that was in first time head gear (which seemed to bring about improvement) and he is 8lb higher today.
Shanroe Santos was also a good winner last time, at Warwick. This is a slightly better race and he’s 4lb higher in the handicap - but he’s still probably the one to beat.

3:00 The big race of the day has attracted a relatively modest field – but that actually makes it more attractive, from a betting perspective…

My start point when looking at the race, was Kayf Blanco.

He is a horse whom I’ve been following closely for well over a year – and he was an official eye catcher at Ascot, early in December.

He disappointed on his next run, at Exeter on New Years day – but was apparently struck in to, so can be forgiven than run.

His only other outing was in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury, and he ran a huge race in that ultra competitive contest.

Not many travelled better than him into the straight, and whilst he didn’t see out his race quite as well as the placed horses, he still managed to finish a honourable fifth.
On that form he is the one to beat in this.

As an exposed 8 year old, the problem with Kayf Blanco, is that there is little room for improvement.

That said, the application of a first time hood and tongue tie certainly suggests that connections are trying to eak out a few extra lengths.

If they are successful, he will take a bit of beating – and I’ll certainly be a little surprised (and disappointed) if he’s not capable of at least placing…

My original intention was to make him the main tip in the race – but I’m conscious that he could be beaten by an improver…

There are a few who fall into that category – but most of them are at the head of the market.

The exception is Bigmatre…

The reason he is a relatively long price, is because he disappointed last time, at Cheltenham.

However, the stable of Harry Whittington was struggling at the time – and he’s only just starting to have runners again.

To an extent, that makes Bigmatre risky – but I think that is factored into the price.

Prior to Cheltenham Bigmatre had been a very gutsy winner of a decent race at Kempton.
That was on his seasonal debut and he battled on strongly to see off some decent rivals (including William H Bonney).

Rather surprisingly, he gets to race today, off a mark just 1lb higher – and from a pure handicapping perspective, that makes him attractive.

However, what makes him particularly attractive, is the way the race is likely to unfold…

Bigmatre is the just about the only horse in the race who likes to race prominently (Fixe Le Cap might – but I suspect he will be restrained as he is making his seasonal debut).

This could give him a big advantage, if Jerry McGrath can get his fractions right.
He managed to do that when he last rode the horse, at Kempton - and I think it is worth a bet that he’ll do the same this afternoon.

I guess the question is whether I’ve got the staking right.

I possibly fancy Kayf Blanco slightly more of the pair – but I want to back him EW and my staking options are limited.

I’ll leave you to adjust your bets accordingly…

4:10 Casse Tete is the second eye catcher running on the Sandown card – and as with Kayf Blanco, I’m pretty keen on his chances…

He caught the eye on his most recent outing at Haydock. That was in a decent novice handicap chase and Casse Tete travelled strongly into the straight, before backing out of things over the final two fences.

The run represented a marked step up from his 2 previous outings in the UK: a fall at Lingfield and a well beaten fourth at Wincanton.

The suggestion is that he is now finding his stride - and I would expect him to step up again, this afternoon.

It difficult to be adamant, but if he does, then I think he will take a bit of beating in this…

That said, he faces some dangerous looking rivals: most notably, Vicenzo Mio and Willie Boy.

I’ve long had my eye on Vicenzo Mio and he definitely has the ability to win a race such as this – though he is a bit of a weak finisher.

Willie Boy is impossible to quantify as he is having his first run over fences this afternoon. However, he’s an ex PTP winner and has shaped with promise over hurdles.

If he was any sort of a price, I would recommend a saver on him – but 9/2 is tight, in the circumstances.

Instead, I’ll go all out on Casse Tete – who has just as much potential as the 2 named and is almost twice the price.
He is also trained by Gary Moore – and he loves nothing more than a winner at Sandown.

Hopefully Casse Tete will be able to oblige…

4:45 I would have liked to tip Alcala in this – and if the 4/1 available last night had still been there this morning, I may well have done.
However that seemed tight enough - and we would have struggled to get 7/2 this morning.

His price now feels about right, as whilst I suspect he is capable of winning, he does come with risks – and also faces some fair opposition.

I was hugely impressed with the way he jumped and travelled, last time at Hereford – and 4 fences from home, he looked sure to win.

However, he then seemed to hit a wall – and was well beaten when falling at the penultimate fence.

The ground that day was desperate, so there is a chance he simply didn’t handle it. He’s also has a hood re-applied this afternoon, which should help settle him down.

However, the way he dramatically weakened is a worry – particularly for a horse who already wears a tongue tie (suggesting breathing issues) – and who will have to face the Sandown hill.

If he does win today, I suspect he will bolt up – and regardless, he is probably worth a pre-race back to lay in running.

If he doesn’t get home however, then there are a few who are capable of taking advantage.

Twenty Eight Guns is the obvious one: though I would also be a little wary of Morning Reggie, who is blinkered for the first time.

Gores Island is a theoretical danger. He travelled supremely well last time – but looked tired when ploughing through the final fence at Kempton. He too might find the Sandown hill a bit much.

Whilst Aerlite Supreme is more than capable of winning a race such as this – but he’s not shown much in recent runs, so it would require faith to support him…

Hereford

2:15 I’m not sure whether he will stay the trip, but Super Sam is interesting in this race, from a back to lay in running perspective, at the very least…

He had looked progressive, prior to his last run at Warwick. That was also over 3m2f and, after travelling well for most of the race, he seemed to lack the stamina to get home.

In the circumstances, I expected him to be dropped back in trip for his next run, so it’s interesting that Venetia is running him over the same distance.
I suspect it is down to his breeding, as that suggests he will improve for a longer distance, so she probably wants to give him another try.

I guess it may come off – but either way, he is likely to trade low enough in running to enable a free bet, for those who are able to play on the exchanges…

In terms of the most likely race winner, then that’s a tricky one…

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Way of the World run well – though he is another who is being stepped up in trip.

Whilst Lord Byran would be very interesting on his handicap debut, for Peter and Sean Bowen – provided he is backed…

4:00 Sirabad is the final eye catcher running today – and despite an absence of 106 days, he appears very strong in the market.

In fairness, he is a horse with a record of performing well when fresh – and he did look an improved performer in the autumn.

I couldn’t be interested in him at a best price of 2/1 – but it may be folly to take him on…

That said, I came very close to doing just that !

I tipped Dream Bolt when he ran last time at Sandown - and I very nearly tipped him again this afternoon.

I was sure he would run well at Sandown – and it was therefore a huge disappointment that he didn’t.

He was incredibly weak in the market that day – and I do wonder if something happened with him (apparently he was very free going to post).
It is tempting to completely ignore that run – and if you do that, then he again has an excellent chance today, of at least placing.

I guess the trouble is, if it wasn’t a one off, he could again finish well beaten…

Of the others, then I would be happy to take on Plasir D’Amour, who looked an unlikely winner last time, until she found her stride very late.

However, Pearls Legend is potentially well handicapped and could be a danger: whilst Allow Dallow has a definite chance of at least placing, based on his run against Dream Bolt at Chepstow.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

BRT Sand 3:00 Bigmatre 0.25pt win 14/1

BRT Sand 3:00 Kayf Blanco 0.125pt EW 12/1

DT Sand 4:10 Casse Tete 0.5pt win 6/1

Mentions

Sand 1:20 Deauville Crystal (S )

Sand 1:50 Minella Awards (O )

Sand 1:50 Man from Mars (O )

Sand 2:25 Upswing (C )

Sand 4:45 Alcala (P )
Here 4:00 Dream Bolt (S )

Eye Catchers

Sand 3:00 Kayf Blanco

Sand 4:10 Casse Tete

Here 4:00 Sirabad