It’s
not the most exciting days racing – and I was half tempted to take it
off.
However, there’s an eye catcher running at Wincanton – so
I had a look at that race.
I
then had a look at another race on the Wincanton card – and a couple at Ffos
Las.
I
stopped at that point !
Here
are my findings…
Wincanton
2:40 Pure Vision looks the one to beat in this,
based on his win at Lingfield and his second at Uttoxeter.
The
Uttoxeter form looks strong in the context of this race and it will be a little
surprising if he meets anything of the calibre of the winner of that contest,
today.
Pure Vision himself seems to be an improver – and he should be suited by todays trip and ground.
Pure Vision himself seems to be an improver – and he should be suited by todays trip and ground.
His
2 month absence is a slight concern – but aside from that, there isn’t a lot to
dislike about him - other than a price of 2/1…
Based on his most recent run, then Driftwood Haze looks
the biggest danger.
He
finished strongly in a similar race over todays course and distance – and even
off a 3lb higher mark, he is likely to give Pure Vision a race, if he repeats
that level of form.
The
slight concern with him, is that he may want a bit more of a test…
Town
Parks is a potential fly in the ointment, on his handicap debut.
An
opening mark of 128 doesn’t look overly generous – but it’s difficult to say for
sure.
The
market will likely guide on his chances.
The
market is also likely to guide on Instagram. He is having his first race from
more than a year – but won over hurdles in his native France.
Neither Sleep Easy nor Another Frontier look particularly
well handicapped – though both are probably capable of improvement…
In
summary, Pure Vision looks the one to beat - provided there is no sinister
reason for his absence ! I would expect him to have too much pace for Driftwood
Haze.
Town
Parks and Instagram could be of some interest – but only if they are subject
to strong market support.
4:40 Lady Longshot was an eye catcher last time,
when making her handicap debut at Exeter.
Despite refusing to settle, she still looked to have
every chance jumping the last – but her early exertions had taken a toll and she
didn’t quite get home…
There is a chance that she will be too keen again today –
but the presence of Norphin, will hopefully see the race run at a decent
pace.
More than that, Skylark Lady and League of his Own both like to race prominently, so the race really shouldn’t be run at a crawl.
More than that, Skylark Lady and League of his Own both like to race prominently, so the race really shouldn’t be run at a crawl.
If
she does settle, then I think Lady of Longshot will take a lot of
beating.
Todays race is a class lower than the Exeter one – and
there doesn’t appear much in it for her to worry about it.
Obviously you need to be wary when dealing with class 5
contests – but this one does look hers to lose.
I
guess the question is, what’s an acceptable price to justify a risk ?
4/1
seems fair enough to me…
Ffos Las
3:50 An ability to handle bottom-less ground is
likely to be required at Ffos Las – and in truth, we won’t know whether some of
the runners can do that, until it is too late..
I’m
not convinced that Paddys Motorbike will relish the ground. He’s an ex flat
horse and 2m4f on heavy ground could well prove too much for him.
Even if it doesn’t he is held on form by Alf ‘N’ Dor on their running over this course in November.
Even if it doesn’t he is held on form by Alf ‘N’ Dor on their running over this course in November.
In
fairness, Paddys Motorbike might have improved more of the pair – but I would
still struggle to side with him, in the circumstances.
Alf
‘N’ Dor himself hasn’t run particularly well on his 2 runs since then – and he
can also be taken on…
The
one to beat, very much looks to be Way of the World.
He
won at Hereford early in January, before running another big race at that
course, at the beginning of February.
The ground was desperate that day, so his ability to handle very heavy ground is proven.
The ground was desperate that day, so his ability to handle very heavy ground is proven.
He
doesn’t look badly handicapped – and could still be progressing.
He
sets the standard – but a price of 5/2 in the prevailing conditions (which could
result in an element of ‘lottery’) is quite short.
The
other one I have to mention, is Kublai…
He’s
been in desperate form – and should hate the conditions – but he is potentially
spectacularly well handicapped.
If
he did bounce back – and did act in the ground – then he could win this doing
handsprings.
He
is definitely the type who needs to be monitored closely in the
betting…
4:20 Again, an ability to act in very heavy
ground, is going to be required in this…
I
could quite fancy Henllan Harry – but he is unproved in such
conditions.
Johns Luck should probably handle the ground OK – but I
don’t think his case is compelling enough to make him a 7/4 shot (even with Davy
Russell in the saddle !).
Batavir and Maxanisi both also have chances – though they
also have question marks over them…
I
would struggle to make much of a case for the 2 outsiders – but choosing between
the other 4 isn’t easy.
I
suspect it is a race best watched…
Best
of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
None
Mentions
Winc
2:40 Pure Vision (P )
Ffos
3:50 Way of the World (P )
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