Daily write-up - Mar 14th (Cheltenham Day 1)

Day 1 of the Cheltenham festival – and the ground is likely to be riding a bit faster than was generally expected.

There has been plenty of rain over the past few weeks – but the course drains very quickly nowadays – and that coupled with an increase in temperature, is likely to see ground on the good side for the opening day.

I suspect that watering will take place sooner rather than later (maybe even tonight), so that is something we will need to keep an eye on…

With regard to the racing, then despite a number of high profile absentees, it is still very strong – and generally competitive.

Maybe not too surprisingly, finding good bets is not easy.

All of the races have been priced up for months now – so any potential ricks have long since been identified and removed.

The markets all look scarily accurate to me – with the quicker than expected ground, the only variable that might not be fully factored in to the prices.

It’s certainly hard to find bets in most of the conditions races.

The right horses head the market – and whilst there are no guarantees at the Cheltenham festival, chasing theoretical value, is a risky path to take….

Consequently, day 1 is relatively light on tips.

I’ve targeted 3 of the races and tipped multiple horses in each race.

I’ve got Mentions for all of the other races – and tried to identify one or two possible angles, for those who can play in running, place speciality bets etc.

I’ll also be posting some Fair bets on the forum, later this morning, for those who have chosen to follow that particular path.

Here are my thoughts on the opening day…

Cheltenham

1:30 I’ll be a little surprised if this race isn’t won by one of Melon, Ballyandy, Bunk off Early or River Wylde.

Unfortunately they are the first 4 on the betting – so finding a way to profit from that statement might be a bit tricky !

Furthermore, I don’t think they set an insurmountable standard in absolute terms – so it wouldn’t be a monumental shock if something did manage to beat them.
The trouble is, I can’t see one in the field, who might be capable of raising its game -and would therefore be worth taking a risk on.

Of the 4 mentioned, then I would be keenest on Bunk off Early,

He ran a huge race in defeat last time, looking as if he would be well suited by the drop back in trip which he gets today.
The trouble is, Ruby has rejected him in favour of Melon – and Willie Mullins has suggested that was the right thing to do.

I couldn’t tip Melon because he’s achieved very little on the racecourse - but equally, I can hardly tip Bunk off Early if connections consider Melon the superior animal !

Ballyandy has sound credentials.

He won the Champion bumper at this meeting 12 months ago – and broke his duck over hurdles in the Betfair hurdle last time.
He’s a tough horse, who will take some passing – but he doesn’t have the quality you would generally associate with a winner of the Supreme.

That’s also true of River Wylde.
He’s unbeaten over hurdles and won a grade 2 event nicely at Kempton last time.

Again, he is good enough to run well in normal Supreme – but probably not good enough to win one…

If I were to get off the fence, I would side with Melon.

He’s not yet proven himself from the top drawer - but he’s also not yet proven not to be – and if he is better than Bunk off Early, then he could be very good !

Of the outsiders, then I could see Elgin running well – with a placing not beyond him.

Whilst if there is a huge shock, then Pingshu looks the one most likely to cause it…

2:10 Barring accidents, then Altior should win this – and probably by some distance.
He was an exceptional novice hurdler last season – and if anything, he has improved for the switch to fences.

He is unbeaten in 4 outings over the bigger obstacles – has barely touched a twig – and can handle any type of ground.

He does appear to be almost bomb proof…

My only concern, is that his jumping tends to be exuberant.

That shouldn’t really get him in trouble – but it’s not what you’d ideally want to see from a 2 mile chaser (it’s better if they jump flat and low – thereby spending the minimum time in the air).

That said, even if it costs him a length at every fence (and it won’t), he’s still likely to be too good for his rivals…

Figuring out what will follow him home, isn’t quite so easy.

Cases can be made for the next 6 in the betting – so to an extent, it’s a case of paying your money and making your choice…

My personal preference is Cloudy Dream – and as I posted on the forum yesterday afternoon, the 25/1 on offer with B365 (who also pay ¼ odds 1,2,3) was very attractive.

If that had been generally available I would have tipped him EW. However, it wasn’t – and I can’t officially tip something which only some of you are able to back…

In terms of in running plays, then both Cloudy Dream and Some Plan are strong travellers – though playing in running when there is a very short priced favourite, tends not to be a particularly good strategy.

2:50 The first of the weeks impossible looking handicaps – though I’m not sure it’s quite as unfathomable as the field size suggests…

24 go to post – but I reckon only half of those have a realistic chance of winning.

Ofcourse that still leaves enough to make it a challenge – but it does strike me as a solvable contest…

The ones of most interest, are Singlefarmpayment, Henri Parry Morgan, Caid du Berlais, Go Conquest, The Druids Nephew and Holywell.

I think that Singlefarmpayment is the most likely winner.

He’s a progressive novice who has shown a liking for Cheltenham and could be a fair bit better than his current mark of 142.

He is an exceptional jumper, for a novice – and comfortably holds Label Des Obeaux on Cheltenham running, in December.

Granted a bit of luck, I would expect him to go close…

Henri Parry Morgan is the second most interesting runner in the field.

He is very well handicapped, based on his run at Aintree last spring. He finished well in front of Un Temps Pour Tout that day – and is nearly a stone better off at the weights today.
Things haven’t clicked for him so far this season, but he was travelling strongly when coming down over this course in January.
If things drop right for him today, then he should go close…

The Druids Nephew, Holywell and Caid de Berlais are all interesting because they are potentially very well handicapped based on old form.

Non of the 3 have been at their peak for a while – but if they were to bounce back today, they are all handicapped to just about win.

The market has picked up on the first 2: but Caid du Berlais is available at a big price – particularly as he is the youngest of the 3 and therefore least likely to be in decline.

Go Conquest is the final one worthy of a mention.

It’s not possible to make a particularly strong case for him, based on form – but I have a feeling he is better than his current rating of 137 – and if anyone can get him to perform today, it will be Jonjo.

There are half a dozen others that I could be interested in - but they all have slightly bigger question marks over them…

The tricky bit is figuring out how best to play the race.

I’ve decided to split stakes across 3: Singlefarmpayment, Henri Parry Morgan and Caid du Berlais.

The first 2 named are my main fancies for the race – but I think the latter also warrants a small bet, at a decent price.

3:30 Rarely can a more puzzling Champion hurdle have been run.
Injuries to Annie Power and Faugheen have robbed the race of a recognised Champion – and non of the contenders can put forward a compelling case, as a Champion in waiting…

Yanworth sets the standard – but he would prefer further and his jumping isn’t of the level normally associated with a top 2 mile hurdler.

He’s the winner by default – but I suspect that something in the field will have his measure.

If he is beaten, then it will most likely be by one of the 6 year olds: Brain Power, Buveur D’Air or Petit Mouchoir.

All 3 arrive on the back of wins – and have the potential for further improvement.

However there are question marks over them all – and improvement is not guaranteed.

In truth, it’s the kind of race, where no result would come as a complete shock.

Consequently, there is a temptation to take a risk, at a price.

Based on his run 12 months ago, then My Tent or Yours could take a bit of beating – with the drying ground, very much in his favour.

Whilst, it’s not impossible that The New One could steal the race from the front…

I could see Sceau Royale outrunning his odds – though I doubt he’ll be quite up to winning.
Both he and The New One are options for playing in running: as Sceau Royale tends to travel very sweetly – whilst The New One may well get an uncontested lead.

The final one worthy of a mention is Cyrus Darius.

He is the complete outsider of the field – and could easily be outclassed.
That said he was a very decent horse a couple of seasons back – and his recent win at Kelso, suggests the fire is still burning…

In truth, I find it an impossible race to fathom.

Yanworth is likely to place – but I will be a little surprised if he wins.
I think that either Brain Power, Buveur D’Air or Petit Mouchoir is most likely to win – but I wouldn’t want to call which one.

Furthermore, I don’t think any of them represents significant value, as one of the ‘old timers’ (My Tent or Yours, The New One or Cyrus Darius) is more than capable of taking the race, if things fall right.
Probably just a race to watch and savour…

4:10 This may well be another watching race…

I didn’t expect that to be the case – but the decision to run Limini and Vroom Vroom Mag – plus the presence of Apples Jade – means that in all probability, the first 3 places will be filled by the first 3 horses in the betting.

Limini looks the most likely winner – based both on her win in the mares novice race 12 months ago – and on her recent defeat of Apples Jade.

Ruby has also chosen her ahead of Vroom Vroom Mag – and she should have no issue with quicker ground.

She has ticks in more boxes than her 2 main rivals…

Both Apples Jade and Vroom Vroom Mag are class animals – but they would prefer softer ground than they are likely to get.

Choosing between the pair isn’t easy – but if it’s for second and third place, then it is unlikely to matter too much…

If only 2 of the ‘big 3’ were running, then I would have been tempted by an each way play on Rock on the Moor.
She finished runner up to Vroom Vroom Mag in the corresponding race 2 months ago  - and provided the ground is relatively quick, I would expect her to run very well again.
The trouble is, she will still struggle to beat Vroom Vroom Mag – and consequently also Limini and Apples Jade.

Maybe backing her each way, without 1 or 2 of them in the race, is the best way to play things…

Of the others, then Jers Girl and Colins Sister would both prefer softer ground: though Lifeboat Mona should handle conditions and is likely to run her race.

Midnight Jazz could also run well – though I doubt she will be quite good enough to place (let alone win !).

4:50 Run this year in memory of J T McNamara, I suspect that J P McManus will be very keen to win a race which honours a jockey, who rode many big winners for him.
It’s therefore probably significant that he relies solely on Edwulf.

On official ratings, the UK handicapper makes him the best horse in the race – and whilst I feel the mark he has given him is a little flattering, I wouldn’t disagree that he is the best horse in the race.

He is also partnered by the best jockey, in the shape of Derek O’Connor.

In the circumstances it is tempting to get him on side – however the horse has a nasty tendency to miss out the odd fence – and you don’t want to be doing that round Cheltenham.

He also has a marked preference for soft ground – and is unproven over the trip.

At a price, I would still take a risk – but there is no value in a quote of 5/1…

Instead, I’m opting to split stakes across two English trained horses…

Paul Nichols has a poor record in this race (I know, because I’ve supported most of his runners !) – but I am drawn to Arpege D’Alene.

He disappointed last time in the Reynoldstown at Ascot – but todays test will be far more suitable.

He likes good ground – and he ran really well when runner in the Pertemps final at last years festival.

I was unsure about his jumping, prior to his run over todays course on New Years day. However he handled the fences well that day, so hopefully he will do the same again today.

This really does look like the perfect race for him – and at 14/1, he is worth supporting.

The other one that really interests me, is Beware the Bear.

He’s unbeaten in 3 runs over fences and comfortably accounted for Singlefarmpayment on his penultimate outing, at Ascot.

He’s a horse of great potential – and has a top amateur in the saddle, in the shape of Sam Waley Cohen.

I can’t see him not running a big race – and whilst 8/1 is a tight price, I suspect it is fair…

I respect the chances of Irish challengers, A Genie in a Bottle and Martello Tower: Whilst it would be no surprise to see big improvement from Champers on Ice, in first time blinkers…

At bigger prices, Flintham and Calett Mad are 2 potential back to lay in running options.
The former will probably lead (though he will also probably find the ground too quick): whilst the latter will probably travel well – but is likely to lack the stamina required to get home.

Bigbadjohn is the final one worthy of a mention. He beat Flintham at Ascot last time (as we all know to our cost !) and looks a dour stayer.
If he’s still in with a shout turning in, he could be very dangerous up the hill…

5:30 The second big handicap of the day – and despite there being fewer runners than in the Ultima handicap, it’s a more difficult race to dissect.
The main reason for that is because this is a novice event, so the horses aren’t as exposed.

My strategy with the race is to take 3 against the field and hope than one of them it up to the task !

My first choice is Its’afreebee…

There are a few things that particularly attract me to him: firstly his run at last years festival, when he finished third in the grade 1 Neptune novice hurdle, behind Yorkhill and Yanworth.

He was only beaten 9 lengths that day – and if he can run to a similar level this afternoon, then off mark of 139, he should win this…

In fairness, the relevance of a run over hurdles 12 months ago, is questionable – though it does show what he is capable of given the right conditions.

More relevant, are his runs over fences this campaign – and they have been a mixed bag…

I was massively impressed with the way he travelled, when running over this course in November – but almost equally disturbed by the way he stopped !

Maybe not too surprisingly he wore a tongue tie the next time he ran – and that did the trick as he comfortably beat Cole Harden, at Wetherby.

It’s difficult to say for sure - but that is potentially decent form…

He 2 most recent runs have been disappointing – but they came in January, when Dan Skeltons horses tend not to fire – and they resulted in his mark being dropped to a point were he could get into this race (coincidence ?!).

In addition to the tongue tie, he sports first time cheek pieces today – and I have little doubt that he will be primed to run for his life.

The second one of interest, is Tully East…

He too ran well at last seasons festival – but has had a very low key season so far, over fences…

Having won on his chasing debut at Thurles, he’s not been sighted in a couple of graded events since then…

As a result, he gets into todays race off a mark 2lb lower than the mark he ran off at last years festival.

That almost certainly under-estimates his ability – and I could see him demonstrating that point, this afternoon !

The final one I want on side, is Burtons Well.
I suspect a few of you are already on him, as I put him up for this race, in the forum a few weeks back.

I nearly changed my mind today, as I fear he might find the ground too quick.
However, I am guessing on that score (he is unproven on good ground) – and if he handles it, I would expect him to run very well.
I don’t think he has the win potential of the other 2 – but I’ll be surprised if he’s not in with a chance jumping the second last – and after that point, anything can happen !

Bun Doran and Gold Present were two others I considered (but decided against).

At bigger prices, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Captain Redbeard run well: whilst Mixboy is a possible in running play, as he like to race prominently.
That said, so do a few others – so that might not necessarily be an advantage (other than for avoiding traffic issues).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

Chel 2:50 Singlefarmpayment 0.25pt win 9/1

Chel 2:50 Caid Du Berlais 0.125pt win 25/1

Chel 2:50 Henri Parry Morgan 0.125pt win 12/1

Chel 4:50 Arpege D’Alene 0.25pt win 14/1

Chel 4:50 Beware the Bear 0.125pt win 8/1

Chel 5:30 Its’freebee 0.25pt win 10/1

Chel 5:30 Tully East 0.125pt win 14/1

Chel 5:30 Burtons Well 0.125pt win 18/1

Mentions

Chel 1:30 Melon (P )

Chel 2:10 Cloudy Dream (without Altior)

Chel 3:30 Cyrus Darius (S )

Chel 4:10 Rock on the Moor (to be placed)

Eye Catchers

Chel 4:50 Flintham

Chel 5:30 Burtons Well